Could Chris Carter win a by election as an Independent? Probably.
The logic is pretty simple. If Labour put up a candidate, Chris stands, and National’s vote stays where it was in 2008, National would win. So Labour would not run a candidate, as National did not against the un-flushable grogan, Winston Raymond Peters, 65, Pensioner of no fixed abode, in 1993 in Tauranga.
Te Atatu is definitely in play now, either immediately in a by-election or next year in the general election. In 2008 the party vote in Te Atatu was:
Labour 13,171
National 13,183
That Chris Carter won handily with a greater vote than Labour itself shows how effective as a local MP he is compared with the tide running out on Labour. He is now in the same position as Taito Philip Field was when he openly declared war against the party. If Labour chucks him out, remember corruption is ok, but disloyalty gets you chucked out, then Labour has more than a couple of problems.
- They need to select a new candidate, Phil Twyford is the obvious choice, but then again he has had 4 cracks already and a fifth would be the death knell for him. He is disliked by the union faction though and would struggle to gain selection.
- Peter Kaiser, Chris Carter’s partner is also the chair of the LEC. This is problematic in trying to pick a new candidate, because the electorate organisation is solidly behind Chris Carter and if they stay put then Head Office faces an embarrassment in over-riding the democratically elected LEC.
- If Twyford, by a minor miracle did end up winning a by-election then Labour has the Tizard effect come into play again.
- Chris Carter will not be alone. That he got sprung and blew the coup before they all lined up behind Cunliffe is problematic. But you can be sure that Carter’s thoughts are not alone. Phil Goff is only leader today because the leaked letter was supposed to run a few days in the press in order to de-stabilise, all ready for caucus on Tuesday when the knife would have gone in. Goff has only postponed that. It is inevitable that he will be knifed, it is now only a matter of when.
National too has problems. If I was Chris Carter contemplating sticking it up Labour then I would resign right now and force a by-election. Tau Henare can’t beat Chris Carter and right now he is the only person named for Te Atatu. If National decided on selecting another candidate then time starts expiring pretty quickly in sourcing a quality candidate who could take on Chris Carter in Te Atatu. If National ran Tau Henare then Chris Carter would be returned as an independent easily defeating anyone Labour cares to put up.
Politics just got very, very interesting.
As for Chris Carter, I extend to him a free post, unedited, on whatever her would like to say, in order to get his story across without spin. Take this offer as part of my mea culpa for my previous error over the phone bills affair. I’d love to present his story un-filtered by the constraints of the MSM formats.
