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Ice free in 5 years minus two

by Whaleoil on August 16, 2010

Two years ago warmists declared that the Arctic would be ice free inside 5 years.

‘When we did the first climate change computer models, we thought the Arctic’s summer ice cover would last until around 2070,’ said Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University. ‘It is now clear we did not understand how thin the ice cap had already become – for Arctic ice cover has since been disappearing at ever increasing rates. Every few years we have to revise our estimates downwards. Now the most detailed computer models suggest the Arctic’s summer ice is going to last for only a few more years – and given what we have seen happen last week, I think they are probably correct.’

The Guardian – 2008

The Arctic summer is almost over this year so how’d that melting go? Not so good by the looks of it. Poor Professor Wadhams computer models have screwed up again. Instead of disappearing at ever increasing rates the ice is growing at ever increasing rates.

Ice Free arctic? Not any time soon

Ice Free arctic? Not any time soon

Not even remotely like being ice-free. See those instruments, they are sitting on ice, they haven’t floated off, nor sunk without trace and at the height of the Arctic summer too.

But it gets worse for the warmists.

It has been the coldest summer on record north of 80N, and temperatures have dropped below freezing ahead of the average date.

Only three more years till the Arctic is ice-free…can’t wait.

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  • joes

    What’s the point of showing a photo saying “look there is lots of ice!”?

    No one is claiming that it would be ice-free in 2010. And there is no way you can judge the growth/retreat of ice by looking at this photo. Your post is redundant.

    But don’t worry I’m sure your invisible friend will create a bunch of ice and prevent the place from ever becoming ice-free.

    • pita

      Would you say that it’s redundant in the same way as the warmists point to Pakistani flooding and Forest fires in Russia are proof of Global warming?

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1201173949 petal

      First, weather isn’t climate.

      That said, I think it is legitimate to point out that when a Pro­fes­sor Peter Wad­hams of Cam­bridge Uni­ver­sity makes hard prediction like “no ice in 5 years”, then we have something to measure against.

      So I think the post is just fine.

  • panzerboy

    In the same article
    “What really unsettles scientists, however, is their inability to forecast precisely what is happening in the Arctic, the part of the world most vulnerable to the effects of global warming.”
    So the scientists (I guess) admit prediction is difficult, you then take a prediction and hold it up as a gold standard proof of AGW, that’s quite a stretch.
    Now a lesson in english.
    “leading scientists warning that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by 2013.”
    See that phrase ‘could be’, these (unatributed) scientists are not saying ‘would-be’ as you state in the first line.
    I do not see this as a prediction on which the validity of AGW depends. I reckon this was probably of-the-cuff remarks givin the unprecendented ice loss of 2007. ie. ‘If this keeps up we won’t have any ice in 5 years”.
    For all that, its certainly within the realms of possibility for the artic to be ice free IN SUMMER (unlike your picture being in winter) in 3 years. Lets wait and see.

    Jeremy Thomson