Will she stay or will she go?

It is only a matter of time before Pansy Wong goes.

Labour have been drip feeding all the dirt delivered to them by an embittered investor and they have got her. It is a double edged sword though because for sure there are MPs in their caucus with the same issue, which is why all of a sudden there is cross party support fro ditching the rort.

However talk must now turn to whether or not Pansy Wong will go now or later.

I personally don’t think she will or can tough it out till late May. It is untenable at a personal level and at a party level.

I have come to the conclusion that there will be a by-election in Botany, sooner rather than later. I have come to that conclusion for a number of reasons.

First up Pansy Wong, quite clearly is an Asian. This is isn’t about race though, it is about culture. In her mind she will believe that she has brought shame upon her husband, her name and more importantly the National party. It doesn’t matter whether or not she does like Bill English and toughs it out or like Philip Field and hangs on in there. In her mind she has brought shame. If she lived in China she would either have disappeared by now or have been on national TV getting ready to throw herself literally off a tall structure. This is NZ and so rather than toss herself off a tall structure she will resign from parliament. From a cultural perspective she will go. My understanding is she wanted to to go last week.

Labour are trying to put this up as some sort of corruption. It isn’t. Conflict of interest, yes, conflict of cultures, yes, that too, but corruption, no way, Pansy just isn’t that type of person. I can’t say the same about Sammy though.

National doesn’t want a by-election. They are pressuring Pansy Wong to go against her ingrained culture to save the cost and hassle of a by-election, and logically when you consider the sums involved compared to the rorts that all parties participate in and have participated in over the years it is quite inconsequential. Bill English rorted far more with his interesting living arrangements. In the end though culture will top the party and pansy Wong will resign from parliament and trigger a by-election.In a battle of culture over politics, culture will win.

That then will set the cat amongst the pigeons. Some will suggest that Botany needs an asian MP. This is spurious on demographics alone. Labour will certainly be faced with an expectant Raymond Huo wanting to stand believing that an Asian face will get him across the line have to fight the by-election with Koro Tawa, their failed 2008 candidate, who has got selected again, unless they spike his nomination or Phil Twyford puts his had up for Botany. Ditto the fool from Act Kenneth Wang. This is tokenistic thinking and specious at best.

Asians simply do not vote on the basis of race. For a start there is no Asian race. There is Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Indian, Vietnamese and so on, all generally loathing the next race. The predominant race though amongst Asians in Botany would be Chinese.

Asian voters instead tend to side with the party or candidate that can give them the most influence and that would be the National candidate, irrespective of race.

If there is a by-election then it would need to be held late January or February, that then means that a campaign will cross over the quiet time of the electoral cycle and the economic cycle with summer holidays in play. All parties will need to think very carefully about the candidate they choose. They will need to be very well known in the area, they will need to have a proven track record with campaigning and they will need to work very hard on the ground.

Some names are starting to surface, though all are trying not to appear to be dancing on the grave of a dead person. With less than 200 members in Botany National could be tempted to have a simple board selection which the rules allow for, and simply appoint a list MP as the candidate. This would be very un-wise. There are strong local candidates and so a full selection contest would be sensible, and ultimately select the best candidate. Alan Towers the Auckland Regional Chair will need to be strong. He will also need to be fair and scrupulously so in the selection of the top up delegates. National too will need to be mindful not to select a candiate who has whored himself around as many selections as possible to try to get a seat, they will want someone local, and with name recognition and a safe pair of hands so stuff ups like Melissa Lee and Kris Fa’afoi don’t happen.

Labour of course will simply hope that Phil Goff has another friend he can parachute in or go with Raymond Huo and all of his idiosyncrasies, which in a by-election and the attention and focus that brings upon the candidates might not be a good thing. Same goes for Kenneth Wang.

It is my considered opinion that there will be a by-election in Botany, whether National wants one or not and it will be sooner rather than later.