Who will be National’s candidate for Botany?
New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, will this morning launch a bundle of binary contracts asking who will be selected on Thursday 27 January as the National Party’s candidate for the Botany by-election, to be held on Saturday 5 March. Â Trading will begin at 10.30 am today (NZT).
The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said six contracts would be launched, for Maggie Barry, Aaron Bhatnagar, Darron Gedge, Jami-lee Ross, Edward Saafi and “Other” to be selected. Â Contracts will pay $1 if the person is selected and $0 if they are not. Â The value of the six contracts should sum to $1 at all times and the price of each one will indicate the market’s view of the probability of that person being appointed. Â That is, if a contract trades at 25c, that person has a 25% probability of winning the nomination.
Mr Burgess said that with Botany being regarded as a safe National seat, the contracts would indicate who was likely to become MP for the electorate, which they may have an opportunity to hold for a long period.
iPredict will also launch a bundle of three contracts asking who would win the by-election – the National candidate, the Labour candidate or another candidate. Â Trading in those contracts will also begin at 10.30 am.
iPredict’s binary contracts have a 90% success rate in accurately predicting future events. Â The company is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington, and operates with authorisation from the Securities Commission. Â Details on the company and its stocks can be found atÂ www.ipredict.co.nz