Who will be National’s candidate for Botany?
New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, will this morning launch a bundle of binary contracts asking who will be selected on Thursday 27 January as the National Party’s candidate for the Botany by-election, to be held on Saturday 5 March. Trading will begin at 10.30 am today (NZT).
The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said six contracts would be launched, for Maggie Barry, Aaron Bhatnagar, Darron Gedge, Jami-lee Ross, Edward Saafi and “Other” to be selected. Contracts will pay $1 if the person is selected and $0 if they are not. The value of the six contracts should sum to $1 at all times and the price of each one will indicate the market’s view of the probability of that person being appointed. That is, if a contract trades at 25c, that person has a 25% probability of winning the nomination.
Mr Burgess said that with Botany being regarded as a safe National seat, the contracts would indicate who was likely to become MP for the electorate, which they may have an opportunity to hold for a long period.
iPredict will also launch a bundle of three contracts asking who would win the by-election – the National candidate, the Labour candidate or another candidate. Trading in those contracts will also begin at 10.30 am.
iPredict’s binary contracts have a 90% success rate in accurately predicting future events. The company is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington, and operates with authorisation from the Securities Commission. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz