In today’s Herald Fran(k) O’Sullivan spanks Rodney Hide…hard.
Rodney Hide – dubbed ‘the little corporal’ by his growing number of opponents within right wing politics – would definitely meet his political Waterloo if a credible candidate stood against him for the Epsom seat at the November elections.
That’s the clear takeout from secret polling done by the potential backers of a new “alternative support party”.
The polling shows that former Auckland City Council mayor John Banks would easily trounce Hide. So, too would other alternative candidates such as former National Party leader Don Brash, and, Colin Craig, the third placed candidate in the recent Auckland mayoral race.
And to really rub salt into this purulent wound, let’s toss in Hide’s bete noire Winston Peters. According to the indicative polls conducted by South Island-based Research First, even the NZ First leader is likely to do down better with Epsom voters than their canary coated MP.
That is a factor which might persuade Peters to contest the seat to try to bring Act down in revenge for the merciless campaign that Hide waged against him just before the 2008 election.
I’m not convinced that John Banks is even contemplating standing, though I do understand that he and Don Brash are busy fundraising and seeing the same donors that Peter Goodfellow has neglected the past couple of years. On who’s behalf, I’m not yet sure, but I am sure it is happening.
In the circumstances, Hide should do the decent thing and clear the way for a credible candidate to stand in Epsom for Act. But my sources suggest that Hide’s colossal ego is such that he is more likely to want to do down in a heap than put Act first.
Banks would stand “in a heartbeat” if Act asked him to do so, says one well-placed intermediary.
Brash – who had gone to cover in Hawkes Bay – was staying clear of the speculation ahead of his own speech to the conference today. But he’s recently been pressured by a number of players – including former National finance minister Ruth Richardson – to re-enter the political fray. He’s very tempted (not that he would need much seduction) as he believes the Government should be doing much more to get the economy on the right track.
The big question facing Banks, Brash, their allies and backers is whether they can reach an accommodation with Act or whether they should go ahead with the new party. Act is an established – if damaged brand.
It has a constitution and a membership base; not all its financial backers have deserted it.
I’m not sure who Fran(k) is talking to, especially with the “in a heartbeat” comment because the people I have spoken to who know John well say this simply isn’t the case. For John banks to stand in Epsom would mean a massive falling out between him and Aaron Bhatnagar. Aaron is the presumptive candidate for National in Epsom being the current electorate chair and National not having a representative for Epsom since Richard Worth fell on his sword.
I think that Banks and Brash though may well have poached the financial backers of Act. I am also pretty sure that banks and Brash know that electorally they are rat poison as candidates. They are both pensioners with Brash over 70. They also both know that their best years politically are behind them.
Colin Craig though is a whole new kettle of fish.
When Labour first got wind that Epsom voters were being polled over whether they should vote for Hide or Banks, Banks denied any knowledge of the phone poll.
In fact, it was Craig who commissioned the December polling. Respondents who identified themselves as centre-right or swing voters were asked if they were in favour of a new partner for John Key in place of Act, “given Act’s decline in popularity and internal problems”. The upshot was that just over 50 per cent either agreed or strongly agreed with the need for a new partner. About 22 per cent were in the disagree or disagree strongly camp.
Another question asking all poll respondents to rank their preferred leader for a new party in place of Act, put Banks at the top with 37 per cent. Craig had 27 per cent, Brash 21 per cent, Peters 16 per cent and Hide was on 14 per cent,
Colin Craig has got money, he has got business skills and had he obtained good credible political advice may well have given Len Brown a decent run for his big corporate money. Colin Craig is certainly best placed to take a truly independent campaign to the streets of Auckland and have a better than even chance of tipping out Len Brown, who is proving to be as useless, if not more so than Dick Hubbard. I’m not sure that running for parliament is the right thing for Colin Craig but I reserve judgement until I see who else he has enlisted for support.
If that support is a bunch of disaffected Act loonies then his campaign will be doomed. There is room for a decent, right of centre party of principle, there isn’t one for a loony fringe of collected single issue drum beaters.
One thing is certain though, unless Act can connect then their days are numbered. This much Fran(k) has right.
