April 2011

via the tipline

Here is Andrew Little and Helen Kelly laying a wreath for Workers Memorial Day…it is however begging a caption contest.

Here lies….

Here Lies Helen Clark's Labour Party, murdered by Phil Goff

On his way to the ACT leadership Brash has burnt up an awful lot of goodwill. ACT was already a party possessed of bitter divisions, and there is little to suggest Brash will be able to quickly smooth those over. In fact, the audacity of his coup has probably, in places, made the ructions worse. Hide’s resignation, which so far appears to be gracious, should help, but Brash is far from a perfect candidate.

John shows how hopelessly out of touch with ACT he is. Rodney had slowly killed off the membership to near the legal limit of 500, and those remaining are not exactly luminaries of the party’ past. As pointed out earlier Don will bring back many old members, as well as voters and donors.

Politics is about survival and the ACT caucus know they were screwed with Rodney. They will fall in behind Don because it is in their best interests, and having so efficiently dismissed Rodney caucus will know that if they get in the way Don will kill off their careers quickly. Self preservation and fear are powerful motivators, and the combination of these will see few internal ructions.

Labour says it will fight tooth and nail “against the agenda of Don Brash and John Key”.

So what have they been doing up to now? Has the “opposition” now decided to oppose?

What has it been doing up to now? Frankly Phil Goff’s response is pathetic. He should be more worried about members of his caucus who watch with incredulity as Don Brash took out the leadership in well executed and bold coup instead of their piss-weak gutless attempt that ended in smiles and guffaws.

Peter Dunne isn’t much better.

Don Brash’s successful hostile takeover of ACT today may well delight one in twenty voters, but alarm bells will be ringing for the other nineteen, UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne said today.

What Dunne should be afraid of is Don Brash sitting down with his coup strategy team and deciding to turn their attentions to his blight on the face of politics. Katrina Shanks is hopeless, she can’t beat Dunne. A good ACT candidate could take National’s vote in Ohariu and send Dunne to oblivion. He was first elected in 1984, and an acolyte of Roger Douglas. It is high time that those first elected in the 80s were retired.

The same team that out thought Rodney Hide and have shown that they are quite prepared to duke it out with realpolitik could certainly work to undermine Dunne over the next 7 months.

With Don Brash’s bold coup the face of New Zealand politics is changed forever. It can now never be said that you can’t take over a party and lead it from outside parliament, it can never be said that you can’t take over a party leadership when you aren’t even a member.

What can be said is that you can if you say you can, and then do it. There are many politicians in every party that are sitting there tonight reading this and shaking their heads in stunned wonderment at the audacity and the success of Don Brash who simply was brave, honest and daring. They will be looking and wondering…can they be so bold?

Following on from my earlier analysis National need to be very careful with how they handle Don Brash and ACT. After the election Don is almost certain to have the balance of power, so annoying him is a really not very bright. Petty jealousy and stupidity like we saw earlier this week from Acting Prime Minister Bill English is not going to help, as it will just alienate many of the people that deserted National in 2002 when Bill lead the party to its humiliating defeat.

Long term the support of the Maori Party is an extremely risky strategy. John Key’s faustian pact has pissed off a large number of National Party members, plus all the voters who swung in behind National after Don Brash’s Orewa Speech. National membership has tanked in many electorates over the seabed and foreshore, and this could well translate into a lot of Party Votes for ACT.

Brash can be expect to bring a Tony Abbott like approach to the election campaign. Everyone will know what he stands for, and like him or loathe him there will be no doubt. He will put pressure on all other political parties because of his clear principles. Fuzzy slogans like “building a brighter future” now come into question because of the sharp focus Don will bring to the right of the spectrum.

National’s problems are not confined to the party vote. Electorates that were safe National when Rodney was leader now could have an ACT candidate running, splitting the vote on the right. This happened in Waimakariri in 2008 where Aaron Keown got 1700 votes and kept Kate Wilkinson from winning a very blue seat. Before readers jump on the “Party Vote that Counts” bandwagon, electorate MPs have twice the resources as scum list MPs and more than four times the mana.

National are fortunate in Labour being so weak they cannot really compete in the center ground. This means National can stay firmly sitting in the middle and let Don take the right wing votes. A strong ACT party, matched with a strong National Party means no selling souls to the devil and selling out to the Maori Party.

The crazy thing about how the last few weeks have played out is that if National had have thought this through they would have made Don an offer he couldn’t refuse after 2008 election. Instead they shunned him, with sources inside the Beehive suggesting Bill English and Simon Power are the ones who need to be put up against a wall and shot for making such a strategically damaging decision.

Someone in National needs to be reaching out to Don immediately, offering him support and working out an agreement between the two parties. If not National run the risk of losing electorate seats with ACT splitting the Party Vote.

Following on from my predictions that ACT was rooted without a change in leadership early last week, Don Brash has rolled Rodney Hide from outside of caucus to become the ACT leader.

Winners

Don Brash: The principled man of New Zealand politics is back. He no longer has to appeal to the middle ground, so he can carve out a big niche for himself by running on simple policies of economic growth, removal of the ETS and one standard of citizenship.

Roger Douglas: Having seen his party being ruined by Rodney Hide, Roger has been a key part of this coup. He has replaced a popularist with a principled man, and returned ACT to its principled roots.

John Key: He now has a coalition partner who will allow him to implement the right wing agenda he was elected to implement. He has been hamstrung by the wets and poll driven faceless men (and women) and has found himself extremely well liked, but not known for anything much other than being well liked.

The People of New Zealand: Hopefully Don will put some backbone into the National led government after the election. Cutting back on the public sector will help New Zealand grow, especially if Don cuts the over paid modern day aristocracy that is our public service.

Losers

Rodney Hide : Did the impossible and lost the leadership of a political party to someone who was not even a member of his party, let alone a member of his caucus. The story coming through the tip line is Rodney was offered a major role in a Don Brash led ACT some time ago, but screwed it up by thinking he was popular enough with the public to stare Don down. If he had have quit when he was summoned to the smoke filled room he would have negotiated a decent new job and exited with dignity. Instead he has been forced to capitulate completely.

Chris Diack: Instead of abusing knowledgeable bloggers all over the comments section of Kiwiblog he should have been developing a proper strategy for the defence of Fortress Hide. He failed his leader and he failed his bos and failure in politics is fatal to your career, it should be no different for Diack.

Hide sycophants: Blind loyalty is a good short term plan but a fatal long term plan. Loyalty should be to the party not to the leader. For reference  check Cactus Kate’s post about this and her recommendations for others that should be axed.

Bill English: His silly play through Kiwiblog attacking Don Brash on Saturday was exposed for its stupidity. It is hard to imagine Don will not be Finance Minister after the election, as Don has a far better track record in finance than a house husband with a years work at Treasury. Bill English better hope like hell that DOn Brash doesn’t ask for Deputy Prime Minister.

David “Clusterf**k” Farrar: Won himself a great new nickname because of one of his ill-informed posts.

Rodney Hide has finally conceded and Don Brash has taken the ACT party. Now National has a dilemma.

National’s control-freak driven campaign team have run into chaos theory in the form of former leader Don Brash. Don is not a man they can easily denigrate as too many donors, National Party members and voters like him for his clear and principled stand on issues. There is little doubt in what Don stands for, and the same cant be said about National.

The problem for National is they can’t go after Brash because as a minor party leader air time means votes. Don’s issues are issues that will win votes for him if he is given air time, so he will not fear confrontation or conflict with National as it will mean more MPs for him to point to when it comes to coalition negotiations.

Don is also a man of principle. His principles are known, clear and the principles of a good number of New Zealanders. He will not mind being attacked because he has shown he will stand on his principles in the past.

A man of Don’s stature causes problems for National because of the people he brings with him. The ACT that went into hibernation when Richard Prebble retired is rousing itself, flexing its muscles and looking out for a good feed. Whispers of a strong ACT candidate running in both Tamaki and North Shore have been coming through the tipline, and while winning these seats is a long shot there is little love for Alan Peachey in Tamaki or the likely candidate in North Shore, Maggie Barry, among National supporters.

National missed a huge opportunity to remove Don from the playing field after the last election. Sources inside the beehive say this was pushed hard by certain board members, but Bill English wanted utu, and Simon Powers prissiness meant Don was left in play.This shortsightness is unfortunately typical of the dithering of the National strategic team, demonstrated by the improbably late candidate selections and the lack of any plan for the 2014 election.

Last night was Duck Night at Hamills Manukau held in conjunction with Beretta. There were about 350 people in attendance including heaps of kids. It was pretty much standing room only.

Beretta had a review of a number of their range of guns with an explanation of the various benefits of each by Chris Ziesler. They showed Beretta, Benelli and Franchi shotguns explaining the differences between the gas operated and inertia driven guns along with the recoil suppressing capabilities of the differing stock and gun designs. Chris also talked about the excellent Avery Decoys from Mallards up to life size Canada Goose decoys along with their accessories.

The paint detail and colours on all the decoys are very realistic, with the fully flocked decoys acknowledged to maintain the most natural appearance of any decoy in the market. Greenhead Gear decoys are available in two sizes including Life-Size and Over-Sized with various floating and full body options.

The Harvester™ Pack, available for both goose and duck, combines the most universal and successful body-style ratios in a 12 (duck) or 6 (goose) packs. It’s the perfect way to build a spread from scratch or add several different “looks” without breaking the bank.

There were two duck calling competitions, one for kids and one for adults. About 15 kids entered and they did a really great job. One kid came kitted out in full camo including tree branches in his hat. He won the best dressed kid competition.

I also caught up with a friend from my old primary school days. There

Everyone who spent $100 went into the draw for a Beretta AL391 Urika Basic shotgun worth $1999 and the tills were going great guns. The box for entries was packed to the gunnels. Everyone was waiting for the draw at 9:30pm.

The rules were simple, you had to have spent at least $100 with Hamills in the past month (every $100 spent gave you another entry, be in attendance and have your firearms licence with you. Chris Ziesler stirred up the thousands of entries and pull out a name…they called the name and waited…and waited and called again, the person wasn’t in attendance. The audience called, some might say a little swiftly, for a re-draw. Chris dipped his arm into the box again and pulled out the winning name. This person was in attendance, and did have his firearms licence and was in desperate need of a shotgun for some upland game hunting coming soon….

Zee, me, Chris Ziesler and Toni with my new Beretta AL391 Urika

I was stoked…and I just couldn’t believe it I needed a shotgun…and literally fell into my lap. There were plenty more draws for prizes off the table, from hats, gloves, camo gear, duck slings and a whole lot more.

It was a great night, made even better by winning a gun. Many thanks to Chris and AJ from Beretta NZ and to Zee and Toni at Hamills Manukau. I now get to look forward to reviewing the gun in a future Wednesday Weapons or Friday Firepower.

Stuff today reckons that Bosco is sticking by Rodney. Lord only knows why. Rodney is rooted, and Whaleoil’s Rule of Politics #2 is do not hug a corpse.

Dr Brash denied knowledge of the rumours and said the only MPs he had met were Ms Calvert and Sir Roger Douglas. Sir Roger, a Brash ally, also met Mr Hide’s deputy, John Boscawen, who refused to say at the weekend if he would support Mr Hide in a leadership vote, but who now appears to have joined the Hide camp.

Bosco needs to think this through carefully. Here are some straightforward points he needs to contemplate:

1. Don will set up a party to run in the same space as ACT, meaning ACT will not get 5%.
2. John Banks is likely to run in Epsom, and Banks v Hide is only going to end up with a massive victory for Banks, who may have lost the mayoralty but he won the areas in Epsom, and unlike Rodne,y Banksie is still well liked and respected.
3. Don is a gentleman and feels obliged to look after those who look after him. Being a laggard in supporting the inevitable means that Bosco runs the risk of being way down on Don’s list.
4. The tipline is running hot with stories of other political luminaries on the right that are wanting to run for Dons party but would never contemplate being involved in a party lead by Rodney. Don is going to be spoilt for choice.

All this ads up to a simple concept. Siding with Rodney means not returning to Parliament after November 26th. Bosco, don’t hug a corpse, you just end up smelling of death.

David Farrar is having a whinge about the tactics of Don Brash. It seems he doesn’t like them and suggest a fairer way for Don Brash to conduct his coup. David alludes to his role in the Brash coup over Bill English, however he doesn’t state that essentially he was the last man stading beside Bill English as Brash’s coup rolled over the top of Bill English…the quintessential numbers man, the colour sergeant holding the flag bravely upright as the team are slaughtered to a man.

There are great many similarities between 2003 and now. Of course there is Don Brash as the common denominator but the tactics and the plans are pretty much the same. Don Brash is a honourable and up-front man. He stated to Bill English that he was going to challenge him, he did in in the open and then set about doing precisely what he said he would do. He is fdoing the same for Rodney Hide. Both and Hide and English, Farrar as well, are old school “one front” type of politicians who sit down inside the bunker and start to trry to combat the enemy without poking their heads out occaisonally to guage intelligence and the lay of the battlefield. Eventually they get rolled over as the momentum sweeps them away.

The tactics that Don Brash is employing are honest. Bill English and Rodney Hide want them to be fair. There is a difference.

Politics isn’t about being fair it is about winning. You can win by cheating and lying and making stuff up or you can win by being honest. Honesty has nothing to do with fairness. You can be honest but tilt the playing field or battle-field to continue the analogy and make the battle unfair. This is what Don Brash is doing. He has clearly got a strategy and he has clearly got good intelligence. He knows how Rodney Hide plays and he knows how ACT plays. His stratgy, playing out in the one and in the media might not be fair but it is honest.

Don’s strategy is deliberately being played through the media to be on the front foot. open and honest, but not fair. ACT is notorious for leaking and airing its dirty laundry through various media hacks, furtive, sneaky and again not fair. Don Brash is only allowing ACT to vent to flush out those who he doesn’t want in the team when he takes charge. Yesterday I posted a picture of Custer’s Last Stand which is exactly the right imagery for what Don Brash is doing to Rodney Hide.

Rodney hates being out played by the media and will utilise his every media resource to shop and sell his furtive and sneaky attacks. This won’t work while the other player…a chess player versus Rodney’s draughts playing abilities…is playing out his stratrgy in the open. Honest but Not Fair.

Farrar’s suggestions are the wrong type of strategy. He still thinks along the war of attrition ‘one front’ methodology. With ACT, you are dealing with hit and run guerrillas. You have to trick them to flush them out when and where you want them. Don’s honest and not fair strategy is doing precisely that.

That is the difference. You can see it in many battles including local selections. Those that play honest and fair usually lose. The two positions are almost mutually exclusive in politics. The cheat, the liar and muck-raker will beat an honest and fair player every time. However if an honest player starts tilting the game in their favour turning the game into one that is unfair in their favour then Honest and Not Fair will usually prevail over furtive and not fair.

Mark Mitchell won the acrimonious selection in Rodney last night, and it was a privilege to have been in the room during the process.

Winners

Mark Mitchell: Mark’s reputation is such it would have been an absolute travesty not to have had him selected. Reputation alone is not enough, and delegates in Rodney have told me what a fantastic guy he is, very good with people, and very genuine. It is hard to remember the last time a National candidate met delegates by helping them bail hay and then had a few beers afterwards, but this kind of touch builds loyalty, loyalty that helped Mark win on the first ballot.

Peter Goodfellow: Peter was ultimately responsible for the selection process and deserve credit for taking bold decisions to stop a deeply flawed process. Good work Peter, you have done the right thing.

Losers (0r as Phil Goff would say Not Winners)

Brent Robinson: Brent was outed as a branch stacking, immoral fundamentalist, and his preachy style on selection night really grated. He should never have tried to rig the selection as he probably would have won if he had not tried to rig the process.

Cehill Pienaar: As branch chair this man tried to ensure the fundy take over of the electorate by colluding with Brent over membership and events. His horrible political past has been exposed, and his backing the losing candidate now makes it inevitable he will be told to resign if he does not resign himself.

Karen Rolleston: For someone I keep hearing such good things about she needs to stop making dumb decisions, engage proper professional advise and start listening. She was told by respect senior party people she would lose Palmerston North. She did. She was told she would lose Rodney. She did. She was told she could well win North Shore, and she ignored this, meaning Maggie Barry is now the presumptive candidate in a field of pygmies.

Amateurs: Some boneheads in the Auckland region hierarchy have been putting about that candidates should not pay for advice or pay for strategy. They are as prissy and as puritanical as the old amateur era rugby people and need to stop this silliness. Laughably the main proponents of this argument are people who earn a living by charging for their services themselves.

If you want to be a National candidate there is a very small group of talented, experienced professionals who will greatly enhance your chances of winning. Yes they will cost, but who else won’t you pay – your lawyer, your accountant, your printer, your speech coach, the petrol station for the gas to get to delegate meetings? Professional advice costs money all over town, why not in politics?

What I can’t understand is why paying for someone who gives you the best chance of a long career in politics is wrong or unethical or whatever else the buggers muddle in Auckland seem to think is reason for not engaging professionals. Aspiring candidates should call the tip line if they want introductions to competent political advisors.

Blog readers are well aware of my views on people who behave unethically, and the best way to out them is to publish information. I realise pride is a sin, but I’m feeling just a little bit proud that I have contributed so meaningfully to the selection of a really good candidate and future National MP. I am also proud that National know that they cannot cover up skullduggery in the party. The tipline callers are many and varied and the truth will out.