Ballsy

Horizon’s poll in the Sunday Star Times is a lot different from all the other political polls conducted by polling companies who use a fairly standard methodology that gets a fairly standard set of results.

Horizon reckons New Zealand First is going to get 7% and that National will only narrowly form a government, whereas every other poll reckons National are going to give Labour a hiding and most of Winston’s voters have forgotten who he is as they dribble away quietly in the dull light of an old folk’s home.

Why this poll is so ballsy is like all polling companies Horizon uses political polls to promote its polling business. If the results they come up with are way out on election day companies using Horizons services start looking at them wondering whether the polls Horizon does are actually any good.

If the Horizon polls do bomb expect all the other polling companies sales people to be putting in the hard yards trying to take clients off Horizon. It is a pretty easy pitch – Horizon can’t pick the general election results, our polling company did, do you want your polls to reflect reality or the distorted reality Horizon finds for you.

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  • MrV

    Parallels to the financial industry where it is better to lose money with the herd by benchmarking off an index, than standing out with out-of-consensus investments.

  • Dutyfree

    some research suggests that if people actually have money in the game the results are more accurate. They then pick who they expect to win instead of who they would like to win. If that is accurate then iPredict shoudl give a better indication than an opinion poll.

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