Stuff is running a story of a leaked poll on Epsom showing National winning the seat and leaving ACT out of parliament. This election it does not matter as National will have enough votes to form a government, but in 2014 without ACT, Peter Dunne, Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples National will not have any coalition partners.
It is simply not possible to believe that John Key will be as popular in 2014 as he is now and that National can buck historical trends to get over 48% to continue governing alone.
This blog has been consistent in saying National is strategically stupid for not engaging in the referendum for the electoral system. John Key and Steven Joyce are almost certainly ensuring an election loss in 2014 by not engaging, and dooming National to becoming the Natural Party of Opposition in the future.
John Key needs to do what David Cameron did and explain why New Zealanders should Vote for Change and his preferred system to give National a chance of being in government in the medium term.