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Fairfax Poll

by Whaleoil on November 23, 2011

The latest Fairfax poll is out and it sees National on the rise again, Labour static and Winston Peters clutching at straws.

National has soared over the teapot tape saga and strengthened its grip on the election in the final days of the campaign.

Today’s Fairfax Media-Research International poll gives National a seemingly unassailable lead of 28 points over Labour, which is headed for a rout on Saturday if today’s result of 26 per cent is repeated.

Phil Goff meanwhile is in la-la land:

“The mood that I’m getting all around the place is that people are moving and that is benefiting Labour and we’ve got an excellent chance of a Labour-led Government from Saturday night.”

When reminded that he has been banking on a boost for Labour throughout the campaign which has never arrived, Mr Goff responded: “Just keep watching.”

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  • Bodger

    Hmmm….15.6% undecided. It’s not in the bag yet.

    • Lindsay Addie

      Not sure how much an issue the so-called undecided vote is in that poll as in the last election 79.5% of eligible voters actually voted. It was slightly higher in 2005 at 80.9%.

      On election night the key factor will be what are the percentages of Labour and National. Labour have to get their vote up higher AND take votes of National to have any sort of chance. Wallowing at under 30% as they currently are in the polls won’t cut the mustard.

    • Gazzaw

      I partly agree Bodger but you would have to agree that a portion of that 15.6% will go to the Nats.

  • nekminnit1983

    National’s worry will be voter apathy…..if people think they are going to win they may decide it not worth voting…thinking everyone else will and that they will win.

  • Peter Wilson

    If, by chance a left wing coalition snuck through, with Labour, on, say 30%, and National around 44%, I wonder how the public would respond to that. National with 50% more votes than Labour(ie 30+15), yet not able to govern.

    • Anonymous Economist

      They’d be riots.   Labour & the unions would be lyched.  

      probably a good thing! 

  • http://votenz.blogspot.com/ Joel

    Worrying is Winston Peters. I don’t want him in parliament AT ALL.

    • Anonymous Economist

      Bad as he is, Labour or the Greens are actually far far worse.

      None of them would be permitted to contest the election if NZ was a real democracy.

  • Agent BallSack

    No one believes National is a shoe-in yet I think. If the Elections were held 2 weeks ago, National supporters may have thought ahh whats the point, after the last week I believe the majority of National supporters will vote on Saturday.

  • Undecided

    for me the most worrying things are:

    1) Why sell any part of assets?
    OK, I get the idea of partial sales off-setting the needed increase in debt and freeing funds for creation of more assets. To me that’s sound business … but is the business of Government to be in business??

    2) Why get us deeper into debt at a time when the global economy is on the brink?
    Sorry Labourites, but borrowing more is not something that I care to see happen … while spouting half-truths turns me right off anyone.

    • Agent BallSack

      You say – Why be in business, then counter it with why sell the business?
      Governments have core businesses they have traditionally held, banking sectors, power sectors, amenities (water etc).
      Under private ownership these businesses provide better returns for their investors as boards have one goal – to make a profit. Governments tend to let businesses run themselves, installing a figurehead director who gets paid no matter how well or poorly the business performs. Under a mixed ownership model we get the best of both worlds effectively.

    • Anonymous

      Remember debts and interest has to be paid overseas to foreign owned banks. If you do not pay, they send in the world biggest and meanest debt collector, the IMF.

  • Nick K

    This is bad news for National.

    • Super Guest

      You’re bad news for the nations literacy levels

      • Gazzaw

        Nick K is maybe a parrot.

    • Lindsay Addie

      It’s good news for National that Nick K isn’t one of their supporters.

    • Geoffk

      you are reading the graph wrongly….turn the fucking thing round the right way!

    • Agent BallSack

      Yes, I can see how having a mandate to govern alone is bad news for National.

      • Anonymous

        I’m wondering if he’s “taking the piss” out of kosh (whose catchphrase is “this is bad news for National”…… ) 

        • Agent BallSack

          Haha, I often wonder if they’re looking at the same data graphs as we are? 

        • Gazzaw

          Ah. Could well be.

  • Badmac

    I’m undersided and will be voting, maybe somebody here could help swing me.

    I have always been a swing voter, and have voted, national, labour, nz first (2x) and act, also greens. I have read all the policies and promises and since I have a reasonable understanding of economics, understand you can’t borrow your way to wealth (I worked very hard to get where I am). So I wot be voting for Greens (they have lost their focus and in trying to go mainstream have bought into controlling people’s lives and shonky economics), not labour (I am not stupid enough to believe borrowing $6billion in a recession for the super gigs bank is neither sensible nor good Math).

    So I am left as voting right this time.
    National is easy, but I won’t some moderation and also some spine to them.
    Act was obvious but if they lost Epsom then my vote is wasted.
    Maori party looks good, but because of overhang my vote would be wasted.

    So what other choices are there, must be certain of getting in and my party voted just increasing likelyhood of another list seat.

    I bet I am not alone in being undersided and stuck so help me out.

    • Agent BallSack

      Its obvious NZ needs strong economic leadership right now. Labour will never be able to provide that, its not 6 billion they will borrow but 21 billion dollars. Think about if you want to see the country go the way of Greece and Italy? If not, the choice is pretty clear. National are the only Government wanting to stabilise the economy and reduce debt.

    • BJ

      Just in fun – if you are ‘undersided’ as opposed to undecided I suggest you get ‘topside’ and aim high like National because Labour will have us all undersided (buried deep) if Phil Goff gets anywhere near the Countries pursestrings. 

      • Agent BallSack

        Imagine what a pen stroke minimum wage will do to our country’s small businesses. 

      • Badmac

        Thats the Ipad correcting my spelling and the limited editing ability that you get on an IPAD, now back on a PC so can be slightly more correct in grammer and spelling.

    • Anonymous

      National will give strong leadership and have the courage to tackle welfare.  National also have FAR better talent than Labour. 
      The Nats – think Key, Collins, Bennett.  They’re decisive.
      That’s what is needed. 
      Labour – think Goff, King, Mallard. Boooooring. 
      A vote for Labour is a vote for the Mana hangers-on as well.  ( shudder…. ) 

    • Badmac

      If I can’t figure out a valuable vote, then I will vote National on Saturday for the reasons you all list (stability, economic nous etc), but I would like to see some tougher measures around WFF (replace it with a tax free threshold to remove the bureaucracy and achieve the same result), . I also like Peter Dunnes gradual Super and with some tweaking, CGT (and appropriate cuts on the other side of the ledger). Finally I really like ACT’s education policy. 

      So what I want is a party who will make it back (ACT 50/50, Peter Dune 50/50) who will have some influence on National. If not I will give National to give as big a mandate as possible, hopefully indicating “yes we agree with your direction, but want you to DO IT and do more!”.

      • Anonymous

        Ok Badmac, in 30 words or less…

        Labour had 9 years of an economic free ride, overinflated the public service & made beneficiaries of the middle class to shore up their vote.

        National, 3 years, one GFC, 2 earthquakes, still stable & popular.

        Nuff said.

      • Gazzaw

        Badmac, with the current instability in the world what NZ needs is stability, stability, stability. A labour-led mishmash of Greens, Mana & NZ First is just not going to cut the mustard for us internationally. Watch the NZ$ plummet immediately and our credit ratings take another hit should labour gain power.
        The international banking system hates change and would view a labour coalition with major distrust knowing full well that a period of huge uncertainty would ensue followed by an election within months.

        • Anonymous Economist

          This is totally, crucially wrong. 

          What NZ needs is drastic action to deal with the worst economic crisis in a century, and an economic position that is worse than ’84 and ’91 combined.   Key is just borrowing $1Bn per week from the Chinese to paper over the cracks:  what is required is bringing back Roger’s & Ruth’s politics, and going on to finishing the job and doing it so fast that the left can’t do anything about it. 

          The idea that we can keep paying the dole (renamed), or super, or doctors and hospitals or schools for people who don’t care about their kids is completely and utterly economically and mathematically illiterate.

          • The Gantt Guy

            FUCKING FINALLY, someone making a comment on this thread that actually makes some sense! National, for all their posturing, are absolutely no better than Labour. Think WFF, ETS, DPB and any of a thousand other acronyms which National ar too afraid to do anything other than tinker with. They are all as bad as each other, all loe big government socialism, taxing, spending, borrowing, hoping Keynesianism. Fucking hopeless the lot of them!

          • Richard McGrath

            Couldn’t agree more – cast a protest vote for Libertarianz and scare the shit out of the dinosaurs.

          • The Gantt Guy

            No thanks Richard. The Leftertarianz’ policy platform is a batshit-crazy amalgam of ACT economic policy and Greens social policy.

            I’ll vote for grown-ups thanks very much. You keep up your take-over of ACT and one day you might get as few votes as you have members.

    • Anonymous Economist

      Sad as it is, there is only one option for anyone who is economically literate:

      National in the electorate vote;
      ACT in the party vote

      (unless you’re in Epsom when you do the reverse) 

    • Richard McGrath

      Badmac, I think you mean you’re ‘undecided’. If you understand economics you will know that minimum wage laws cause unemployment; you will know that Bill English can’t borrow us to prosperity at the rate of $380m a week; and it looks like you agree that people need less government in their lives and more self-governance.

      The Libertarianz Party stands for freedom in economics, banking and all other facets of people’s lives; stands as advocates of private property and tolerance for the choices of others.

      If you vote Libertarianz your vote won’t be wasted.  

  • Doug

    The Roy Morgan out today has Winston on 3% that is more like it, Labour on 24.5% Greens 13% National 53%

    • Anonymous

      Ahhhh… good.  Nice to see Labour under 25%. 
      Oh, I’ll get in before kosh – “this is bad news for National….”  ;)