How will it ever work?

Let’s look at how Phil Goff is supposed to form a government and try and work out if it is at all possible.

Winston peters says he won’t work with anyone. We know this to be a lie of course. But let us imagine for a moment that Winston told the truth. Phil Goff can’t therefore turn to him should he make 5%.

So the math is G=LP-WP. Not looking goo so far.

We know the Greens will work with Labour. That makes the math G=LP+GP-WP

We know that Phil Goff says he won’t work with Hone Harawira…interesting turn of phrase…will he work with Mana without Hone Harawira as it’s leader, and is Phil Goff actually saying that he will turn down government if he has to rely on Hone Harawira. Let’s take Phil Goff at his word, since he says he doesn’t lie [cough]

That make the math look like this: G=(LP+GP) – (Mana+WP)

On current polling averages that is: 50=(26.5+12.9)-(0.9+3.2) 0r 50=39.4-4.1 or 50=35.3

As you can see the equation doesn’t add up. In order to make government which is on or about 50% of the vote Labour are still 14.7% short of 50%.

That means in the last week of the election Labour needs a swing of more than 7% against the government in order to have the possibility of forming a government. Worse, that swing has to land in the Green and Labour camps for it to do any good. If it goes to Winston Peters or Mana that makes Phil Goff’s job harder for forming a government.

Of course though, we know Winston Peters will lie and so a vote for Winston Peters is a vote for a Phil Goff led government. When Winston says NO we know he means yes.

We can also see why we must get rid of MMP and Vote for Change and for a system that removes all this nonsense once and for all.

 

  • Kosh103

    Wow, you really have had the wind put up you by last night.

    • BJ

      OUt of interest Kosh are you blogging during work time or are you at home on the couch not working – I am running a business at he same time as keeping an eye on you

      • Agent BallSack

        Same. Kosh is an unemployed idiot troll with nothing but soundbites. See Above.

        • Guest

          So I’m paying for this Labour/Unionist BLUDGER

          Disgusting.  

          If only the referendum had a real choice BLUDGERS, CIVIL SERVANTS, STATE EMPLOYEES & UNIONISTS DON’T GET TO VOTE

          Problem solved in perpetuity

  • Peter

    Phil for PM on Sunday I am afraid. NZ will be worse off for that.

  • Murray Simmonds

    AN EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH TO POLITICS

    These are the underlying political
    truths that no politician wants to admit to:

    If you vote for National then you
    either implicitly or explicitly support the underlying propositions
    that . . . .

    There are too many people in the
    world already and the situation is getting worse by the day.

    “Survival of the fittest”
    deems that there is not enough room on the planet for all,
    therefore:

    “The fittest”, and therefore
    those who are the most worthy of political support, are those who
    can make big bucks or have the potential to make big bucks.

    Selling assets, which will be
    ultimately owned by overseas investors, is a good idea.

    The Pike River Mine legacy is a
    good example of the benefits of selling assets offshore. It
    graphically demonstrates how (mainly, but not exclusively) overseas
    investors treat (mainly, but not exclusively) local NZ workers –
    i.e the bottom line is the buck made, not the risk that, in the long
    run, the emphasis on the bottom line may mean that the lives of
    workers will be lost.

    Education is a commodity. Like any
    other commodity, it should be paid for by the workers and other
    taxpayers, but it is there to be expolited for the benefits of the
    non-tax-paying rich. The educational needs of those who actually pay
    for it through taxation are of no real consequence.

    If you vote for Labour then you either
    implicitly or explicitly support the underlying propositions that . .
    . .

    The current economic mess facing
    much of the world (and especially the Western parts of the world) is
    due to the personal greed exhibited by those who control the
    economic purse strings by trading in derivatives and other products
    that create false wealth out of non-productive assets.

    This is a short-term strategy fror
    creating huge personal wealth at the expense of the productive
    sector of the economy, who end up having to bail out (largely
    through their taxes) banks and other financial institutions that
    have been “gutted” by the greedy few at the personal expense of
    the many.

    The wealthy believe that they are
    too smart to have to pay taxes and to share costs of the
    infrastructure that they make use of in order to accumulate their
    wealth. This is a cost that should be bourne largely by “the
    workers” because they are not smart enough to avoid taxes in the
    way way that they, the wealthy, can avoid them.

    The system has been set up,
    largely as a result of lobbying and political manipulation by the
    wealthy, to condone the exploitative policies of them, the wealthy,
    and to ensure the transfer of money from the poor to the welathy to
    thus ensure the survival of their position and privelege in society.

    The wealthy believe that society
    exits only for the ultimate benefit of them, the wealthy, because,
    after all, their success at the expense of the productive sectors of
    society is merely a consequence of the principle of the survival of
    the fittest.

    • dutyfree

      Pikes largest investor was NZ Oil and Gas, a NZ company….

      Labour had nine years and I gather solved all the problems that you beleive you have identified.  I assume you are therefore arguing that National has reversed all of Labour’s great policies and successes in the last three years.

    • greenmuppet

      Wouldn’t it be easier to just say “I am the 99%”.

  • Anonymous

    Don’t Panic…..Don’t Panic….. Don’t Panic ……. Them fuzzy wuzzies don’t like it up them. Odds are it will be a lame duck National coalition, and National will take up the bum for the next 3 years.All because the KeyMan lost credibility.

  • Anonymous

    Wow, Murray Simmonds, you’re slightly nutty. How come your post is formatted so weirdly? Do you press Enter when you get to the end of the text box? Have you heard of ‘word wrap’?

    Anyway, the left are going to lose. There’s no point grizzling about it. Better off spending your energy on reforming Labour. Look at who is instrumental in it’s failure. It’s not just Goff. It’s Mallard and Cunliffe as well. Time to put the broom through Labours upper ranks.

    • kayaker

      Muzza – the King of Cut and Paste.

  • Murray Simmonds

    Toby:

    I Take your points – but if you ever try cutting and pasting from a Word or from an Open Office doc into a blog – you’ll know about weird formatting (You get what you get). When you know something about that, try informing me again. I suggest you take a course in basic psychology before venturing into ill-founded diagnoses based on a lack of evidence and knowledge . . . I spent 40 plus years in the business of teaching psychology. Whats your background?

    - Murray Simmonds

    • Thorn

      Murray, you sound high on ego-centred, intimidating, manipulative, passive aggressive but low on attention to detail, duty, work focus and influence. Those who can do, those who can’t teach.

      • Buzzlightyear2

        Those who can do, those who can’t teach, those who can’t teach, teach teachers!

    • http://twitter.com/Jazr0d Jazr0d

      paste it in to notepad first then cut and paste it again

      you’re welcome

    • Anonymous

      You should get an independent diagnosis.

    • Kimbo

      You have 40 years of teaching psych and you end up whining and talking in “Robin Hood” cliches like the 17 year old in my household?!  She has no whit of real-life experience budgeting, holding down a job, or the careful stewardship that results in an accumulation resources. What’s your excuse?

      “The wealthy believe that society exits only for the ultimate benefit
      of them, the wealthy, because, after all, their success at the
      expense of the productive sectors of society is merely a consequence
      of the principle of the survival of the fittest”.

      Was raised a Labour voter, and used to believe this sort of crap, and when you listen to the politics of envy being spouted in this election, I can understand why some people continue to believe it. But really?! All the wealthy? Every one?! Not a single exception? Some of the most generous people I have met have been wealthy – wealthy with their time, resources, goodwill, and willingness to give opportunities to those who stop blaming others, and take responsibility for themselves.

      I think you have a envy problem, that you are projecting on to others.

      • Guest

        The wealthy believe that society exits only for the ultimate benefit
        of them,

        And what the FUCK is wrong with that?

        We are worth far more than the bludging scum whose food we pay for, whose rent we pay, whose GP and hospital bills we cover, whose snotty-nosed bludging we “educate”, whose drinks and smokes we shout them, and even whose funerals we subsidize.

        Truly they are all scum – starting with State House Kid #1 in the beehive.

  • Anonymous

    A Labour government now will encounter great distaste from the electorate and increase opposition to MMP. However, if Labour wait another three years and sort their shit out, National will inevitably fuck off New Zealand at large by ripping the guts out of everything and the left will get back in with eyes shut and hands behind back. 

    • Guest

      Hell yeah. With any luck we’d lynch the lot of ‘em.

  • Paulus

    Can you imagine all the left wing parties in a caucus ?
    Wow would make the muppets look good.
    Bet they could not agree on the colour of the tea.

    • http://twitter.com/Jazr0d Jazr0d

      that scene at the start of kubrick’s 2001…

      • Kimbo

        …or the Colosseum scene from “The Life of Brian”

        “Judean People’s Front? Splitters!”

        • John Q Public

          How many leaders would that be altogether? I lose count.