Poll after poll shows National is going to get over the magic 48% that will give it a majority in parliament, and the National support Parties ACT, United Future and the Maori Party are struggling for relevance.
Labour are getting a hiding this election, but will endure just as National did after their disastrous results in 1987 and 2002, and Labour came back strong in 1993 after getting hammered in 1990. The Greens have got rid of their old socialist wing and nut case wing, and are doing well with a moderate leadership so they are going to be around in the future.
Labour and the Greens will be a nice natural fit together, and the dominant governing coalition.
John Key has unprecedented popularity and if he tells New Zealand to vote for change and to back another electoral system they will. If he does this National is in with a chance in the future, as it wont need to get over 48% of the vote or have a minor parties survive, which looks highly unlikely.
National caucus members should be asking on the daily campaign calls when National will endorse a vote for change to ensure they don’t become the natural party of opposition.