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National’s strategic stupidity, Ctd

by Whaleoil on November 14, 2011

The last weeks polls have shown what I have been saying all along. National will lose all its coalition partners in 2014 and will face a Labour/Green coalition that will be near impossible to break.

John Key has tentatively said he supports Supplementary Member and Vote for Change but the strategic genius’ behind National’s campaign can’t see the obvious. National need to go all out to get people to vote for change in the referendum this election or they will be ruined in the future.

With polls consistently above 50% it means they have the luxury of changing their message and sacrificing a few votes now for a system that isnt totally rigged agains them in the future. Phil Goff gifted them the opportunity to do this with his shameless promise to gerrymander MMP for the good of the Labour party.

There are times that I despair of National’s strategic stupidity. Bolger could have stopped MMP. Anyone with half a brain knew Bill English was tits and would lead National to its nadir. Now National’s inaction looks like embedding MMP.

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  • Sue

    My major issue is with how List MPs are chosen.

    Which of the options either 
    a: Has NO List MPs
    b: Has the voting public choosing those entering Parliament as a List MP

    I OBJECT to having MPs decisively thrown out by their electorate and entering Parliament anyway because they have been put high on the party list (in total disregard to the wishes of the voting public).

    I would be happier if the highest polling candidates who were unsuccessful on the night were those who made it into parliament leaving those who polled badly out in the cold. Is that one of the options? I find the information on the options to be very unclear.

    • 6k944827

      This is the area of MMP that vexed me as well. You offer a viable solution her Sue. Thank you

  • tas

    Note that National isn’t registered as a promoter for the referendum. So doesn’t that tie their hands?

    • http://www.whaleoil.co.nz Whaleoil

      Only if they spend money, it doesn’t cost anything to make statements

  • max_power

    Yes I’ve been thinking on this since you first raised it months ago Cam. All I can think is that National thinks it can’t afford to piss off its own coalition players, esp the MP.

    Key has shown he’s in it for himself, he doesn’t really care about doing the right thing and he’s possibly even convinced himself the “right thing” consists of what most people want – which is of course fatal, in any democracy.

    But there must be zillions of Nats who aren’t egotistical like Key therefore aren’t blind and while I know the Nats are very hierarchical and present a unified face, isn’t there anyone powerful on the inside who is championing an anti-MMP perspective?

    Are the Nats so thick as not to realise the pernicious nature of MMP to the country? It’s a system which has no merit at all, borne out of war, inflicted upon the vanquished, then upon us. Why was it, when it was introduced, the only voice in town till Peter Shirtcliffe had been singing FPP faults and the only choice given was MMP? Who caused and designed and conducted that campaign?

    That story has never been told.

    Now it appears, it’s happening again.

    If it wasn’t one’s democracy, one wouldn’t mind. But it is, so one does.

    All of the politicians and the MSM’s complete silence in unison on this is reprehensible from a democratic perspective, regardless of whether or not its good strategy for any given party.

    Their silence on this illustrates these guys, all of them, don’t really give a fuck about the honesty and transparency of the principles by which we grant them the right to make laws which affect us. Isn’t that good of them.

  • Thorn

    I will not vote for National until such time as they break ranks with the Maori Party.

    • max_power

      Really? Why?

      It’s the Mana party who are the racists, the haters and the wreckers. The MP is the elder wisdom.

      So why wouldn’t the Nats want to partnership with that dem?

      • Fatso9999

        Yep. I’m not exactly in their demographic, and I’m considering voting for them. I think they are actually the only party that hasn’t done something to disappointment me at the moment. They have been a great coalition partner for national (frankly, more stable and reasonable than ACT) and they have negotiated hard, but very respectfully, for what they want. They have even stuck up for civil liberties in most cases

  • Kosh103

    Good to see MMP will prob stay. A victory for real demoracy.

    • max_power

      You call having no real choice “real democracy?”

      Of course it will stay, thanks to the lack of exposure by the very people who represent democracy in this country who are this very moment in the daily news on a minute-by-minute basis and not one, ever mentions, even the fact there is this referendum thing, let alone what it represents – our last chance to reconsider – and let alone what the choices are let alone the relative merits thereof.

      Instead, we get:

      Complete.

      Utter.

      Silence.

      If you call that democracy Kosh, I’m not with you mate. 

      • Kosh103

        MMP is a far better system than FPP ever was, or any of the other FFP in drag options.

        • max_power

          Yes this doesn’t mean it’s better than say STV or Supplementary Member and since this complex issue is at stake in 2 weeks, my point is your average voter wouldn’t even have a clue what those two systems are, let alone their pros and cons.

          This is why our democracy has been hijacked this election and all of the current crop are responsible both MSM journos and politicians from all sides. Name me one of them who has spoken strongly, loudly and longly  on this critical referendum the importance of which, as politicians, they are all acutely aware.

          Yet none speak. Not one. And this is not about them and their venal probably pointless ineffective plans, this is about this nation’s democracy. For all time. This is the last chance to stand back, take a look, has it worked? Maybe, maybe not. But this critical, critical debate’s not even being had. It’s not even being announced there is such a thing. And there are two weeks to go.

          This is the point, Kosh. This is deliberate. This is by design, by collusion. Collectively all politicians have clearly decided they all want MMP so the voter doesn’t get a chance. See, they know voters. They know, voters only think about politics when they’re directly affected and the rest of the time it’s just background noise in between the busy schedule of raising a family and all the attendant things which arise therefrom.

          So it’s not about which system is best mate, it’s about giving the nation the opportunity to have a say in our democracy, and they haven’t and it’s almost too late now.

          They know, when the average voter gets into the polling booth and is surprised to find, yes, there’s a referendum, this average voter which means everyone who hasn’t made a positive effort to acquaint themselves with this esoterica of MMP, STV et al, will go with the known thing, the comfort zone, the “unknown” is scary.

          This is how humans work. This is what all of our politicians are counting on.

          And since it’s our democracy at stake and all of the politicians across the board are doing it, isn’t that just a teeny bit cynical?   

             

          • Kosh103

            I know the other options.

            MMP gets my vote.

          • 6k944827

            Fair point Kosh, but don’t forget that the National Programme have some pretty strong debates of the failings and merits of all systems. 101.1 FM in most places in NZ….

          • Kosh103

            Oh I am not saying MMP is perfect. It needs tweeking to be sure. But IMHO, its the best one.

  • http://votenz.blogspot.com/ Joel

    I don’t think things are as bleak for National as you make out, Whale. I am very ambivalent towards this referendum, as the way I see it, all of the options are the same. SM could be either the best compromise, or the bastard child of MMP and FPP. 

    PV is a stupider form of FPP and STV means local people and issues won’t really be represented in its super-electorates. It too is the bastard offspring of FPP. 

    I’ll vote for change, and probably for SM. I was already thinking that way, and John Key endorsing it, while I don’t like to think I’d be swayed by that, does seem to have sured me up about it. 

    I think New Zealand has an equilibrium now where we get a few terms of red followed by a few terms of blue – rinse lather and repeat. It was that way under FPP, and has been under MMP. 

    The Greens’ appeal will fade. If they are too extreme during this term (thinking they have a mandate) they will be turfed out. They are just keeping left-wing votes warm while Labour gets their house in order. 

    • max_power

      The Greens won’t fade Joel. That would be good, but it won’t happen.

      They have probably the widest dem base of any party, from the wealthy trendy urban housewife represented by Malcolm and Castle-Hughes through the standard lefty ranks of various stripes.

      Kennedy Graham’s base is a puzzle to me, I’d like to understand what Green Dem he represents.

      But all I can see ahead for them is growth. They’re the lefty idealist evangelists. That’s how they see themselves and that’s why people like them.

       

  • Apolonia

    National will have a potential coalition partner in the Conservatives for 2014. Just like in Austrailia, the Liberals have the socially conservative National party. The Conservatives represent a demographic that has been ignored by the other parties.  

  • Evan Johnson

    I don’t see how you can argue Goff would be gerry-mandering MMP.  It is the anti-MMP people that like gerry mandering.  FPP and SM invite the old arguments about electorate boundaries and marginal electorates created therefrom.  FPP and SM are lost causes, better forgotten for good.