National’s Problem with Nick Smith

MMP means that New Zealand’s most popular PM ever has an one seat majority. So if National lose an electorate MP and then lose a by-election there could be a fresh election that would be very hard for National to win.

This means they can’t push Nick Smith too hard, as Nick 4 Nelson holds a seat that if Labour and the Greens were to collude on Labour could easily win a by-election. MMP doesn‚Äôt replace an electorate seat lost in a by election with a scum List MP.

It is not just Nelson that could cause a problem. If an MP dies, or commits a crime or just decides they are sick of being passed over for promotion they could leave, force a by-election and then an election. Those in safe blue seats don’t really have much power because National would win a by-election.

Those in marginal seats like Nick Smith do have a lot of power, as if they leave they could bring down the government.

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  • http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/ Inventory2

    Actually, I’ve read elsewhere that nothing would change if Labour beat Smith in Nelson nothing would change, as Labour would lose a list MP (hard luck Raymond) and National would gain one (Smith). Such are the vagaries of MMP!

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=586802903 Graeme Edgeler

      You read wrong.

      Or someone wrote wrong, of course :-)

    • http://www.whaleoil.co.nz Whaleoil

      What Graeme said…you are incorrect.

      • http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/ Inventory2

         I bow to your collective knowledge Graeme and WO

      • http://whoar.co.nz/ phillip ure

        ¬†i am actually hanging my hopes for a shortened nact-term on this scenario…

        ..with smith..or whatever..

        ..particularly tempted will be those backbenchers in marginal seats yet to make their mark..knowing that by selling the assets key is steering them to political oblivion…

        (surely not all of them think selling assets is a good idea..?..

        ..and i hope they realise the power they hold in their hands..

        ..and that they exercise that power..)

        ..and i also have hopes around maori mp’s in national staring down them and theirs being vilified forever in maoridom for allowing/helping the commonly-held assets to be flogged off to the 1%…

        ..their other choice is to be a hero/ine to all of nz..

        ..by walking/waka-jumping(?)..and bringing down this govt..

        (except of course..to that 1%..flush from their looting of sth canterbury finance..and gagging to scoop/trough up more..)

        ..it’s all getting quite interesting..really..

        phil@whoar.

  • johnbronkhorst

    In MMP the pecentage party vote is everything, and NOT changed by a bi election, so status quo remains seats are adjusted via the list.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=586802903 Graeme Edgeler

      No they aren’t. When Labour failed to win the Te Tai Hauaruru by-election, they didn’t get a replacement list seat, and the Government’s majority dropped by one. When the Maori Party lost the Te Tai Tokerau by-election, they didn’t get a replacement seat, and the Government’s majority dropped by one.

  • The Gantt Guy

    Well shoot. That’ll learn ‘em, won’t it. They should have damn well endorsed and advocated for the Vote for Change when they had the fucking chance, and there’s no point crying like a pack of babies about it now.

  • Kosh103

    Like I was saying yesterday, it will not take much for National not to be able to form a Govt after the next election.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_OK7Y7PCSTJ27RCKZ2MGRSAYCTE NEIL

      Not holdin’ my breath buddy – hope you’re not either, could be fatal…..

      • Kosh103

        Actually I think National is done at the next election.

        I might be wrong, but I doubt it.

  • Duncan Brown

    No problem, National would just need to co-operate/buy votes/enter into an agreement with another MP or party to continue in consensus government.

    Under FPP (unless I’m mistaken) the result of a loss of a by-election would definitely have resulted in a general election.

    Under MMP, there are more options.Old school thinking about the majority party needing to have 51% to govern need to be relegated.

    Re earlier johnbronkhorst and Graeme Edgler exchange, the proportionality of parliament after a by-election is a simple enough anomaly for the electoral commission to consder in their review.

    • Kosh103

      Thing is thou, while in theory they can govern as a minority Govt like Labour successfuly did, National do not have the votes’ if they lost their majority, to survive a vote of no confidance in the House.

  • Kiwikea

    Wouldn’t the winner from Labour just take one off their scum list? I.e. The proportion stays the same?

  • ConwayCaptain

    Ohariu will go back to National when Dunne goes.  If ACT get enough votes then they will give National a few more seats.

    Now NZ First is only there because of Winston.  If he went the party would implode and the votes would go to National.

    Look at Parliament and i would say that most of Wisnton’s votes came from National so National has quite a sizeable mahority.

    How long will Liebour last???  All it needs is for one good scandal and they would be a done deal.

    • Kosh103

      Only an idiot writes off either Labour or National. And remember under Bill English National had less seats than Labour does now.

      So all the people who went running around saying National were done, looked like fools when they bounced back. Just as all the people running around now saying Labour are done will look like fools when Labour bounces back.

  • Robert M

    Whaleoil this is a hopeless lack of courage. Smith should never have been a Nat MP. Where to begin the combination of hardline social and sexual conservatism and reaction combined with wet social policy and opposition to any real government cuts and restructuring. Significant cuts would be to close every University sociology, anthropology and social work dept and double fees with the amount available for new loans capped at current level. ACC is an outdated rort -no longer required except for say meat workers and the cost of the levy on the export industry is a cruippling tax on the productive economy. Those who cycle of have sex should do so at their risk. I often listened to the lectures and promotion of ACC by Barrister John Millar with cynicism, but the Daly case furthur discredits ACC. Put frankly the risk of vaginal sex even with someone with aids without a condom is only  about 1 in 300 if neither party has significant wound or VD. In three months it would be difficult to believe they had intercourse more than 150 times which means there was plenty of hard unprotected anal fucking. The truth is extremely hard to get and generally requries hundreds of irrresponsible partners and a lot violent anal intercourse. If that was not the case a lot more people wou8uld be dead.
    There is no way National is going to win Nelson. Mayran Street would never be electable there. And if they have a Geoff Palmer like candidate or son of a penniless scribler he won’t either.
       Should the current control of the Nat Govt by Joyce, English and Smith end and entirely different range of policies will evolve. I suggest the death penalty for multiple murder. The aboltion of any defence of psychiatric grounds, armed police. Combined to opening up Queen St and Fort street to modern entertainment ie no slow food, good looking barmaids in hotpants, hard rock music, the sort of clubs they have LA and Vegas and London. Enterprising clubs like Spearment Rhino and Hooters will be encouraged ant the end of any respect for Coney. Kelsey, Hulse .Kelly.
    K Road west of Pitt st will be levelled and the spill over bars before the bridge erased. The trains will no be going to Mangare or Manakau or thru a loop.
       I am of course nothing but a straight boozer, 1950s sports car fan and reader of Hustler. 
      

    • Ratchet

      Wow. Just wow.

      That is how to comment on EVERYTHING in just one post.

    • BW_Lord

      I don’t even follow half of that but I’ve repped you anyway.

      Love your plans for Auckland – Robert M for Mayor!

  • jay cee

    now the hard question. was nick smith that guy in the novus windscreen ad (“show us your crack”) or was that his double.

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