National are rooted. I am not exactly sure where the 41.2% comes from but I do know what it means. A loss of six percent makes it near impossible for National to form a government, and means they will lose a large number of MPs and depending on how electorates play out, a large number of electorates.
Electorates may stay National if Labour and the Greens donâ€™t do a deal to let Labour win some seats. Any seat with a National majority of under 5000 is at risk if the greens run a party vote only campaign, although at 41.2% we can expect a loss of about 350 x 6 = 2100 votes. 1% means roughly 350 votes and National got 47% at the last election.
We are in for a brutal Darwinian struggle for survival among the National MPs if these poll trends continue.