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What the Dimpost tracking poll means

by Whaleoil on June 13, 2012

ᔥ Dimpost Tracking Poll

National are rooted. I am not exactly sure where the 41.2% comes from but I do know what it means. A loss of six percent makes it near impossible for National to form a government, and means they will lose a large number of MPs and depending on how electorates play out, a large number of electorates.

Electorates may stay National if Labour and the Greens don’t do a deal to let Labour win some seats. Any seat with a National majority of under 5000 is at risk if the greens run a party vote only campaign, although at 41.2% we can expect a loss of about 350 x 6 = 2100 votes. 1% means roughly 350 votes and National got 47% at the last election.

We are in for a brutal Darwinian struggle for survival among the National MPs if these poll trends continue.

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  • Michael

    Why do we care about polls when there is over 2 years till the next election? 

    • http://voakl.net/ Ben Ross

      Because it causes the Party to panic and really take its eye off the ball as (Cam put it finely): 
      We are in for a brutal Darwinian struggle for survival among the National MPs if these poll trends continue.

      If that kind of crap happens forget anything else happening over the next two years…

      So with that in mind the government can do two things:
      1) Panic
      2) Grow some balls and do the hard stuff. WFF, Student Loans, immigration, staying the heck out of SME’s way and all the “right wing” stuff that a Centre Right Party should be doing. 

      So what if National gets trundled 2014, if they passed the hard stuff then job done and back into power 2017 under most likely Steven Joyce. Go for the third term and we either get limp dick government OR three terms of National in opposition again. So what say you.

      I would go do the Hard Stuff, hit opposition 2014, refresh, come back firing 2017 :-)

      • AngryTory

        2) Grow some balls and do the hard stuff. WFF, Student Loans, immigration, staying the heck out of SME’s way and all the “right wing” stuff that a Centre Right Party should be doing.

        Dole, DPB, Sickness, Invalids, Hospitals, GPs, Schools (proper privatization!) and above all banning unions & Labour

        Do that, and guess what – National will be back

    • Fozzie

       Michael you forget – this government is handing on with a wafer thin majority and kept in by the likes of Peter Dunne, the Maori party and ACT – if they jump ship or think it might be in their best interests to force an election – Mr Key et al will come a tumbling down !

  • Mark

    If the polls continue and in 12 months look worse JK to bail before the election.

  • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

    John Key to blame.

    Useless leader.

    Compare him to Margaret Thatcher.

    • Kiwidon

      Yeah right – blame GW Bush while you are at it!

    • http://voakl.net/ Ben Ross

      Least Thatcher had balls and could debate hard and fast. Bless Maggie 

      • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

        Thatcher, by her will and by her rhetorical ability, could draw people to her point of view.

        Key has never even had a point of view let alone any ability to draw people to it.

        The best opportunity National have ever had to get NZ going again and blown by the gutless smooching vacant of ideas Key and his craven left liberal acolytes.

      • AngryTory

        Fuck that.  Thatcher had her friends and more importantly her enemies

        She didn’t tell fucking-touchy-feely stories, she just smashed Labour and the unions and kept right on smashing!    And looking at the mess the UK is in today we can see the main problem was she didn’t just wipe ‘em both out when she had the chance. 

        That’s what Key and national need to learn. 

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_OK7Y7PCSTJ27RCKZ2MGRSAYCTE NEIL

      Please don’t compare him to Margaret…..that’s doing my head in!!!

      • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

         Your head was done in long ago you fucking drongo.

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_OK7Y7PCSTJ27RCKZ2MGRSAYCTE NEIL

        Love your gutter language response to everything….

    • Dion

      You haven’t mentioned the “cultural marxists” yet.

      You’re slipping, Redbaiter.

  • Dstamp

    Poll and really how accurate are they.  According to the polls everyone wants the retirement age extended, well that is until Campbell Live last night had a txt poll and the reverse applied.  It depends largely on how the question was asked and who was asked.  Honestly how many time have any of you told a surveyor that you were too busy and hung up.  Most working people I would suspect. 

    • AnonWgtn

      Campbell is all Bullshit anyway – why bother to watch.

      • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

        Its all bullshit.

        Stop watching mainstream news, always just left wing crapola, and free your mind.

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_OK7Y7PCSTJ27RCKZ2MGRSAYCTE NEIL

        Campbell is a Ralph Nader wannabe…..

  • AzaleaB

    This brings us back to earlier posts on the blatant lack of MMP parttners. Those they currently have will jump ship( or waka)  if there is profit in it…or in the case of ACT, may not exist next election.

    IMHO National needs to appeal to both to the head and the heart when selling policies. I know many on this sight will rubbish this but the wider populice likes JK becuase “he seems a nice bloke” and whether we like it or not, that can sway votes. Too much rhetoric on cost saving and not enough on inspiration and real life stories. It does not mean the policies change but the persuasive arguement is not pitched only at economists and chartered accountants…it also includes Mrs Smtih on Jones street. This will address the ‘losing touch’ commentary from the left.
    Link below  shows the necessary art of persuading others…and it is not all based on fact or rational reasoining.
    http://www.iqpc.com/redcontent.aspx?id=65802

  • Polishpride

    The entire system is past its used by date….. little to the left, little to the right. Think for yourselves. Have a system where you can vote for what you want. Not the limited options given to you by the incumbent political parties…
     

  • Rick Rowling

    The real story isn’t that we’ll have a different government in 2 or 5 years – that happens every 2-3 terms and always has.

    What’s really new is that it won’t be a major party+ cling-ons government, for the first time it will be a genuine coalition with the second party being too big to slap down over the term.

    It’s going to be a heck of a ride that will be fascinating to watch.

    • AnonWgtn

      It is almost impossible for National to form a Government in 2014. They will have the most seats but not a majority. Current coalition partners have done their dash. Winston’s one man party is out anyway. He never expected to be there this time, but the media will support him as they did last time.
      So Labour cannot get enough to govern without the Greens.
      But at what cost to the country – they will put forward the kind of demands they are currently expounding – and guess what, Labour cannot refuse them – to do that they would not get Power, which they want at any cost.
      Norman has made it quite clear that he wants Finance and Deputy PM, Turei wants Social Welfare.
      Shearer, under Robertson, will have to accept Education, as he was a teacher, or he will go back to cushy UN.
      So – Robertson and Norman – two queers together
      God defend New Zealand.

  • Blokeintakapuna

    Well National could always start fighting a “rear guard” fight by having the authorities start seriously investigating the unions and their “incorporated societies”
     
    Thanks to WO and Owl – we have learnt that the MWU has over $4 Million in member funds “missing” from their reports and compulsory, minimum reporting has still hasn’t been done correctly in 2006 – so there’s some serious lack of over-sight and quite likely some “related party” financing issues that brilliant sunlight would help disinfect for NZ Inc.
     
    Now – factor all the shenanigans happening across the ditch with the Aussie Labor Party and their Union bully boys. All the entrenched corruption, the cover-ups, the denials and obfuscating and blatant State Treason by Gillard to remain PM at all costs – prostituting ethics and credibility surrounding the Thomson theft / prostitutes / misuse of $500K of funds issue – and one wonders if NZ’s unions would do such a thing?

    Ctnd… 
     

    • Blokeintakapuna

      Cntd…
       
      Do birds of a feather actually flock together?
       
      Investigate the unions very thoroughly. There’s some highly suspicious “related party” funding / loans and obfuscating of accounts going on from the union side of the coin – and on the political faction of the same coin, we have wealthy Asians who can buy NZ passports from Labour MP’s for as little as $10,000 – the MP’s don’t even need to know his real name – even if Interpol have warnings out about both of him.
       
      So yes – for National to win, all they need to do is start shining some spotlights on dodgy dealings that haven’t been brought into public scrutiny yet.  

    • http://voakl.net/ Ben Ross

      I think that rear guard action might be put on hold with the Deputy Auditor General now to investigate the Sky City Deal. God sake this government is walking from one disaster to the next. This investigation is going to give the Greens enough ammunition for a while and really cause this to the government to:

      1) Panic 

      And not do this:

      2) Grow some balls and do the hard stuff. WFF, Student Loans, immigration, staying the heck out of SME’s way and all the “right wing” stuff that a Centre Right Party should be doing.  

      So if the Govt does do 1) and not 2) then sorry even as member to the said party – time to go into opposition, get the broom and come back again 2017 afresh and hopefully with a bit more balls.

      An insult I know but did H1 have more balls as PM then what we have now?

  • Gazzaw

    So who does the Dompost poll? A Wellington-based segment infested by civil servants, 58% of whom are union members & therefore by default largely labour voters.

  • Galantisuk

    Will the Green party frighten Labour MPs, I am not talking about their extreme union hacks, but about reasonable MPs? Will it be enough for them to form New Labour, or a Democrat party and then go into Government with the National party. I already detect Labour moving slowly to the right.A split within labour could happen.

    • Thesorrow&thepity

      If nats started working with greens it’d cause the hard lefties to leave greens for mana which is likely what norman wants (tweek mmp & that’s 3-4% of the pop who’s only represented by hone, ie a party of 1 & the radicals are all binned & whos votes won’t ever count). But more importantly nats n greens agreeing on a few things will put the shits up Labour & cause a more sudden leadership change than whats planned (sort of like an induced abortion). Will Labour swing right or left? mmm that’ll will depend on who emerges from the leadership bloodbath that follows, all the same they’ll be too busy stabbing each other in the back to show a united front against the nats

  • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

    Whatever happens, NZ has to be rid of the left wing imposters who infest National.

    Here’s one of the main reasons Key and his race baiting acolytes have to be dumped-

    http://johnansell.wordpress.com/2012/06/11/oia-exclusive-minutes-confirm-bias-of-constitutional-advisory-panel/

    That Key stands by and allows this kind of crap to go down demonstrates so clearly what a useless unprincipled posturing self serving political loser he really is.

  • thesorrow&thepity

    polls polls polls, it’s no wonder Nats have gone a drift as they keep looking over their shoulder at what the msm is saying about how popular they are. The truth is they’ve lost their shine because they’ve made it clear that they’re kicked the hard issues to touch. Anyone with half their analytical faculties intact could see that the 2011 election saw all the oxygen being sucked out of the room in terms of coalition partners for 2014. If they want a third term this is how it should be done, put asset sales on hold & focus on selling off kiwisaver, the scheme costs the govt $180 million p.a & selling it off would be worth around $20billion which would go a long way to paying off our debts (I’m basing this on several informative NBR articles), fix up student loans & raise the retirement age to 67 which a provision that it goes up to 68 in 5 years. Coalition partners is easy, yes a lot of people will not agree but theres method in the madness, form a coalition with the greens! They’re already moving centre by getting rid of Bradford n co & more importantly this will snooker Labour completely! build a working relationship by horse trading, no asset sales in exchange for kiwisaver being sold, limits on fracking & some bs redtape commission on ocean drilling in exchange for allowing for coal mining on the denniston plateau. Build a working relationship in this term with cunning norman whilst shearer is still figuring his arse from his elbow & you’ll trigger a coup d’etat in labour ranks allowing nats to walk into term 3 as red will be too busy fighting red for the labour party leadership. 

  • Johnbronkhorst

    Time to shed light on the alternative policies, few as they are CGT………disaster that should mean a gain of 8% to national. Jus read and distribute Alan Reynolds report to the ASX.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_OK7Y7PCSTJ27RCKZ2MGRSAYCTE NEIL

      Is it electronic – do you have a link to post?

  • Apolonia

    Armstrong in yesterday’s Horrid says “National is going to have to reach out to parties other than its existing support parties if it still wants to be in government beyond 2014″
    Cup of tea Mr Craig?

  • Magoo

    Getting rid of the ETS would go a fair way to re-igniting my confidence in National. Until then, if ACT isn’t around then I’m tempted to vote Labour just to teach National a lesson.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_OK7Y7PCSTJ27RCKZ2MGRSAYCTE NEIL

      That’s the way to “cast” your vote…

  • Kimbo

    Have said it before, and I’ll say it again: -

    There will be a Labour-Green government sooner, rather than later, by 2017 at the latest.

    The effects will be awful, and yet also a godsend.

    Awful because it will be a latter-day children’s crusade.

    A godsend because the experience will be so awful, it will be seared into the collective consciousness of the usually apolitical and apathetic electorate for at least a generation. The Greens especially will be continually punished by the voters for years to come from 2020 on…

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    Let us wait and see what the Roy Morgan poll that is due out this weekend comes up with.

  • Blokeintakapuna

    All these polls… and not a single pole dancer…. perhaps Mr. WO could find some for our Mental Helath Break?

  • Dion

    We will be alright as long as the government doesn’t fuck up any more policy announcements.

    Unfortunately I’m not optimistic – and if we’re not careful we’ll wind up with a five party left wing hydra of teachers, protestors, and former drug addicts.  

    The only useful one among them will be the citrus tree fertiliser, assuming Winston gets in again.

  • C Coulter

    First off Monday is known in the trade as a no news day,
    what that means is that no one wants to pay for weekend work so any press releases
    that looks like a story stands a very good chance of being picked up and run
    with by the media.so what does the opposition do realise false figures in a
    press relis and bobs your uncle the government is on the back foot running and hoping
    not to fall.

    If you do not believe me look at the last two months  on Mondays  it is almost as if tv1 and tv3 take turns .

     

    Are you guys’ stupid do you really want to provide a meal
    ticket to the left and Looney greens

    What we want is a party that is strong moral and unencumbered
    with ideology.

    National did not win the last two elections labour lost
    them. Why.

    Well first the traitor Helen Clark sold our sovereignty to
    the United Nations and passed the ante smacking law (wonder who helped her)
    then at the last election they pledge to bring in capital gains tax.

    So how do we win for the next 12 years simple stop the
    pointless asset sales and make them pay.

    Remove the resource management act now and tell the councils
    that funds cannot be used for social services but only the 3rs rubbish roads
    and reticulation.

    Gets the internal economy working? The complete collapse of
    the economy is imminent.

    Stop bashing the unemployed and reform the complete system.

    Try this if you have worked for 12 months and get laid off
    you get full pay for 3 months than ½ pay for the next 3 months. After that you
    go on full time relief work doing public works with 1 week in 4 off to look for
    work. 

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