Which National Caucus Members will Still be in Parliament in 2022

Following on from my post earlier today about the future of National the type of MP I think will be around in 10 years time is based on historical precedent. MPs with safe blue seats will still be there, but they will also be under 60 and obviously it depends on whether National is in power or not.

This means:

Mike Sabin
Phil Heatley
Mark Mitchell
Simon O’Connor
Jami-Lee Ross
Simon Bridges
Louise Upston
Amy Adams

Most of the other safe blue seats are held by MPs who have been around for ages and will retire, or who are too old to expect to be cabinet ministers in 2022. Some may hang around, and it will also depend on who is leader. There are younger MPs who took seats from Labour in recent elections, and they will probably not last another three elections. The exception to this is Louise Upston who has benefited from boundary changes and now has a safe blue seat.

List MPs, no matter how powerful now, will not make it back for three elections. David Farrar has pointed out that there are no List MPs from 1996 still in parliament as List MPs, and there have been no List MPs who have made it to Prime Minister.

From along term perspective, and whatever you think of their merits, the 2011 intake did not have many people like Bill English, Tony Ryall or Nick Smith who will do two terms of government at least. Age discriminates against Maggie Barry, Scott Simpson and Ian McKelvie who will in extremely advanced years in political terms in 2022.

There is going to be a major generational change in the National Party when long serving MPs like McCully, Williamson, Ryall, Smith and English move on, and older MPs in safe blue seats like Hutchinson, Tisch, Ardern, King, Wilkinson, Brownlee and Dean will also be replaced by new MPs by 2022. The big question is will they be replaced by people who can make it into cabinet like McCully, Ryall, Smith and English?

  • ZeroThreeCallingCode

    Does this list suggest another SI female leader may be on the cards?

    • http://www.whaleoil.co.nz Whaleoil

      It suggests nothing of the sort…it is a list of those left by 2022

  • NotLen

    Will Steven Joyce move to an Electorate seat?

    • http://www.whaleoil.co.nz Whaleoil

      I doubt it.

  • Johnbronkhorst

    If you match this list against the possibilities of a similar labour list….Hipkins alone would drag the average IQ down so far as to render labour to the status of irrelevant pond scum!

    • AnonWgtn

      Who ?

  • Bawaugh

    The scary question?

    Will Rt Hon Winston Raymond Peters be in Parliament in 2022 or will we finally be able to say good bye?

    He will be getting on a bit by then. Still Rodger Douglas was able to come back in his 70s.

    I know he will have a very good valedictory speech. 

    • Phronesis

      …and an even better eulogy.

      • Bawaugh

        While I admire his whitt, I don’t want him dead, that is just wrong. 

        That said according to the Superlife Life expectancy calculator, a person aged 60 today will live another 22 years, with 25% living beyond 89 years. 

      • http://www.whaleoil.co.nz Whaleoil

        Winston is 66, has been a heavy smoker, and extremely heavy drinker…he is on borrowed time already.

      • Apolonia

        Winston died years ago, if whisky wasn’t such a good preservative they would have buried him a long time ago. 

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    One thing for sure….Winnie will still be there and talking non-sense as always…..

    • Gazzaw

      His once excellent speechmaking skills are displaying very marked signs of deterioration. His years of alcohol use are starting to become apparent. He is starting to ramble.

  • AngryTory

    The Government will not return to surplus until two years after Treasury’s 2014-15 estimated timeframe, according to Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard… Bollard agreed the delayed return to surplus would see government debt about $10 billion higher than currently forecast.
    On that basis of complete and utter uselessness, there deserve to be none at all.

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