Nate Silver has Obama’s chances of winning in november at an all time high after several state polls came through this week. Some says that it is because of the millions in advertising that Obama and his SuperPACs are spending. Nate isn’t so sure about that:
The effects of advertising can be ephemeral, however, which is one reason to take a longer view of the polls, and the other factors that are pertinent in the state, rather than to fixate on the most recent set of numbers. Meanwhile, it isfar from clearÂ that Mr. Obamaâ€™s campaign and his affiliated â€śSuper PACsâ€ť can sustain an advertising advantage throughout the balance of the campaign. If so, Mr. Romney might poised to rebound in them.
Nevertheless, Mr. Romneyâ€™s campaign is not working from the position of strength in these states that it might have envisioned. Itâ€™s the vote in November that counts â€“ not the polls in August â€“ but they represent the most conspicuous sign that incumbent presidents are hard to defeat, and that Mr. Romney has some work left to do to win the Electoral College.