Why Romney is pushing the proverbial uphill

ᔥ In These Times

Mitt Romney is going to struggle on teh electoral college…especially in Ohio. Time is ticking by and things are getting harder for him not easier:

Can Mitt Romney lose Ohio and win the election? Not likely.

Assuming that President Obama takes Ohio and that Romney wins Florida, Romney would need to win 50 of the remaining swing state’s 53 electoral college votes. If Romney loses both Ohio and Florida, where he now trails by about a point, he has essentially no chance of winning. (This analysis is based on the Real Clear Politics electoral map.)

The critical question, then, is whether Romney can win Ohio. With the standard caveat that anything could happen between now and November, it looks increasingly doubtful.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls over the past month gives Obama nearly a five-point lead in Ohio, with the most recent poll giving him a six-point lead. As with polling at the national level, the numbers have moved very little over the past several months. Romney has led in just three of the 23 polls released since the beginning of the year. The average of polls released in April gave Obama the same five-point lead that he now enjoys.

Obama beat John McCain by a seven-point margin—53 to 46 percent—in the popular vote in 2008. The faltering economy was often cited as the reason for Obama’s victory. The same bad economy is now cited as Obama’s great weakness.

Three things are preventing Romney from winning Ohio:

Sherrod Brown’s campaign, Ohio’s relatively strong economy, revitalized unions and the renewed focus on Catholicism’s social-justice tradition—are a perfect storm of bad news and bad luck for Romney. Can he win the presidency in spite of them? Stranger things have happened.  A month or two of terrible economic data before the election might trump them all.

Short of that, Romney’s best hope is to stay in close touch with the Catholic bishops. It’s going to take a miracle.

  • http://htt:://www.pukeko.net.nz/blog chrisgale

    RCP have noted that their rolling average of polls has been skewed because the pollsters are over weighting Democrats in the samples. It appears that no one knows the true figures.

    And it is too early. Obama and Romney will be under the pump until November. That is three months from now.

    • http://www.whaleoil.co.nz Whaleoil

      When Romney starts spending it will be interesting, in the meantime the SuperPACs are though.

    • http://www.whaleoil.co.nz Whaleoil

      You also ned to read this about over-sampling http://bit.ly/PLkoMl

  • Meg

    Obama will get a second term.

  • kiwiinamerica

    Even your favourite analyst Nate Silver is acknowledging the skewering of the mainstream media polls http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/09/aug-9-national-polls-shouldnt-panic-romney/

    • fozzie

      The reality is that polls are skewed by the question they ask. Who would you vote for yesterday today tomorrow will all get a different response – to value the veracity of any poll you need to know what they are asking and their polling methods – these days – are cell phones included ?

    • http://www.whaleoil.co.nz Whaleoil

      Nate just looks at the numbers and applies statistical analysis…sure it is a model and the model is constantly refined, but he isn’t often wrong…once again you mistake my stating of available information as support for one candidate or the other.

      I don’t like Obama, I’m not much impressed by Romney, but I call it how I see it and to do otherwise would mean complete blinkering based on what ever team I am on…which if you think about it is fucking dumb.

      Living in lala land might suit a few people but i prefer reality…and right now things are tough for Romney.

    • Bunswalla

      Hey KIA there are no electoral college votes in NZ – why are you even bothering? If you’re entitled to vote in the election – go do that. If you’re not, your prognostications – while undoubtedly hilarious – are even more pointless.

  • Shaun

    Sounds like Romney is going to announce Ryan as his VP running mate – http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79582.html

    Dumb – Ryan is very unpopular in his home state and nationally. He’s a throwback from the hard right wing that has control over the Republican Party.

    Nate Silver was right – Romney should pick Sandoval.

    • Adolf Fiinkensein

      ” He’s a throwback from the hard right wing that has control over the Republican Party.”

      I don’t think I have ever heard such a dim witted comment. If there is one thing the ‘hard right’ has not had in recent years, it is control of the Republican Party.

      Ryan is the right choice. It’s the economy and we are NOT stupid.

      • Shaun

        So Sarah Palin was John McCain’s first preference? Yeah right…

    • 2ndAmendment

      He’s a throwback from the hard right wing that has control over the Republican Party.

      HELL YEAH — and that’s why Romney & Ryan will win in Novermber, and will refound American on the ideas that made it great: God, Guts & Guns - not Evolution, Welfare & more fucking Welfare.

      Romey & especially Ryan realize what remarkable few people in NZ, for example, real is, that the “social contract” or “social democratic” or “socialist” model of the west is over. There isn’t any money to pay for welfare, for entitlements, for the DPB and the ACC and the WFF and the TANF and the TARP and especially Osamacare or the NHS or public hospitals or schools or Medicare or Medicade.

      There isn’t any money left. American and NZ need to compete with countries that are actually free and capitalist where it really matters: China, mostly, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, HongKong. Countries that don’t have welfare.  Countries where, if you bludge, you and your family starves in the gutter.

  • Mediaan

    What happened to the principle of “Don’t take as running mate somebody that might tempt powerful lobbies to murder you while in office, if in office”?

    It is said to have influenced the Obama people to choose (the rather aged) Biden.

    Ryan would appeal more to the Catholic church than Romney, and I suspect the mafia lobby would like him better too. Any links to people like Meyer Lansky?

  • MrV

    Here is Obama being schooled on budgeting. LOL

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