Can Romney Win?

I can’t stand Barack Obama, but I likewise can’t stand Mitt Romney. But for different reasons.

Obama is a Democrat and theoretically any Republican should be better than a Democrat any day of the week, but Mitt Romney is just awful.

His campaign is inept, his campaign team are hopeless and he is a plastic candidate with no depth. I don’t believe he can win, even though Obama’s post convention bounce has waned. The point is Romney didn’t even get a bounce and that is unprecedented. Right now they are about where they were before the conventions, with Obama enjoying a slight advantage.

The last two paragraphs of this WaPo article succinctly explain my thinking:

The Romney campaign tends to point to two elections to show how its candidate could win this thing. There’s 1980, when Jimmy Carter supposedly led Ronald Reagan until the debates, and 1988, when Michael Dukakis was leading by 13 points after his convention. In fact, Reagan led going into the 1980 debates. And although Dukakis’s convention bounce was indeed large, it was wiped out by Bush’s convention bounce, which put him back in the lead.

That’s not to say Romney couldn’t win the election. A 3 percent gap is not insurmountable. But we’re quickly approaching a point where his comeback would be unprecedented in modern presidential history. And if the Romney campaign begins to crack under the pressure, then that comeback becomes that much less likely.

  • Gazzaw

    Let’s face it, the whole Republican campaign right from candidate selection & nomination has been an unmitigated fucking disaster. I’ll pre-empt all the ‘don’t likes’ by saying again that I have no political axe to grind here & I’m just stating a simple glaringly obvious fact.

    • Mitch82

      Agreed. Romney could come from behind a stunning upset, anything could happen. Obama could do something stupid. But Romney threw this one away, and as much as the GOP will try blame Ron Paul supporters, he fucked this one up all on his own.

      • onelaw4all

        “Obama could do something stupid.”
        He’s been there, done that, many times.
        The MSM refuse to cover it or revise it.

  • NotLen

    They never had a true leader as a contender

  • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

    I don’t get you at all Whale.

    You call yourself a right winger yet we had reprints from far left sources all day yesterday, and today you kick off with some rubbish from Ezra Klein (a prominent Journolister of all things ) in the Washington Post?

    Don’t you have any idea who Ezra Klein is and why any of his views on Romney might be utterly worthless?

    Let me tell you. He’s a lying cheating despicable little left wing coward who has been caught out in all kinds of deceits that he has entered into in order to progress the left/ liberal / progressive political agenda.

    You might as well rely on Mallard’s view of Key.

    Jezuz Christ, I don’t mind that you might have a negative view on Romney but at least you could support it with some legitimate commentary instead of this kind of worthless crap.

    Don’t you ever go to Townhall, or Free Republic? You’ll find plenty of criticism of Romney there that’s much more rational than anything written by the thoroughly discredited Ezra Klein.

    What’s with all of these left wing sources?

    FFS..!!

    • Mitch82

      Anyone at all who has a view you don’t like is a left-wing boogey-man, Red. Period.

      • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

        Wake up to yourself.

        Ezra Klein was a journolister FFS.

        IIRC, the whole thing was his idea.

        • Mitch82

          Yeah, I get it – you have a problem with Ezra Klein. You also have a problem with anyone speaking ill of Colin Craig, regardless of their affiliation. Did you not read the original fucking post?

          “The last two paragraphs of this WaPo article succinctly explain my thinking:”

          Nothing particularly shocking about the text he quoted, in fact it probably resonates with a lot of people that aren’t stuck in denial mode about Romney’s campaign. People called my support of Ron Paul a pipe dream, but the GOP had to use some pretty corrupt tricks to deny him. Romney, on the other hand, had every chance in the world to win, but has fucked this all by himself. As much as you want to label everything a left wing conspiracy, he was caught on tape saying shit that offended Americans. Nobody made him say it, and if he’s not smart enough to realize that everything in on record and will eventually be published, he isn’t close to POTUS material.

          • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

            Are you saying that we should accept the writings of the extreme leftist and Journolister Ezra Klein as objective commentary on the Romney campaign- yes or no?

          • Mitch82

            If you want an answer, no. Don’t accept anybody’s writing as being objective – read all sides of the story and make your own mind up. You’re not here to be told by Cameron Slater, me or anybody else what to think about the issues. I don’t ignore a left wing opinion because it’s from the left wing, in the same way that I don’t agree with a right wing view just because it’s from the right. I don’t stand on any side of a battleground, I make my own mind up on an issue irrespective of which side of the political spectrum it falls on.

            If the American public only heard what the GOP want them to hear, then Romney’s tax returns wouldn’t have been an issue, and nobody would know about the bailout that Bain Capital took after he ran it into the ground. He’s going to be expected to fix a broken economy, so hard questions need to be asked – and that comes from his opposition, not from his financial backers. Who do you think politicians are accountable to if not to their opposition? It’s certainly not us.

          • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

            If you had a half a brain you’d know that the issues you express concern about above are all memes dreamt up and put into the public arena by the left wing propaganda machine, staffed by guys like Ezra Klein who pose as journalists.

            They are not real issues, they are manufactured by the left wing with the intent of sucking the gullible (that’s you) into their web.

            They project a view that helps Barack Obama, and they put it out there, and those who don’t know any better (that’s you again) bite like deep sea gropers.

            You need to wake up to how the left manufacture the news and opinion cycle by means of their almost total control of mainstream media, and stop your knee jerk reactions to their obvious bullshit.

          • Mitch82

            You’re kinda running on rhetoric now.

            I’m no stranger to manufactured news – I was an ardent Ron Paul supporter, remember? He was blacked out by pretty much all sides of the media, left AND right, in the most blatant way. Nobody battered an eyelid when Romney and Ginsberg blocked his nomination and usurped control of the GOP. Yet that ‘half a brain’ I have, which is 7/8ths more than the general Fox/CNN viewer, knows that a Ron Paul approach is what the US needs. Stop treating a gangrenous economic limb with band-aids and prayer, hack the fucking thing off before it spreads through the entire body. Stop policing the world, and the world will stop resisting arrest by flying planes into buildings.

            I think Obama’s as much a piece of shit as Bush was. I think Mitt Romney will not only be as much a piece of shit, but a dumber piece of shit. He seems to have even less regard for citizens than Obama, and that’s saying a lot. I’d be happy if both of these guys were assassinated.
            The difference between you and I is that you still seem to think that there’s a difference between left and right.

          • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

            “Stop policing the world, and the world will stop resisting arrest by flying planes into buildings.”

            How about you just stop giving hope to our enemies by repeating their propaganda.

            What would you want?

            For America to go home and give control of all of the globes resources, its minerals and its oil and its seas and waterways to Russia or China?

            Is that what you want?

            Just say it if it is. Don’t be scared.

          • Mitch82

            ‘Hope to our enemies’? My god, you sound like Bill O’Reilly.

            I don’t think the US has any bloody business being in everyone else’s backyard. The world went ape-shit when Russia invaded Georgia. What gives the US the right to do it? Atleast the Russians had the balls to say ‘Fuck you, we’re invading’, rather than trying to creep in the back door slowly under the pretext of peacekeeping.

            If you think it’s fine to do that in the name of resources, let me throw your silly question back at you – would you be happy if the US came here to New Zealand to ‘secure our resources’ for us?

          • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

            Just answer the question.

            Do you want to leave the globe’s resources and its waterways and oceans to the Russians and or the Communist Chinese??????

            Is that what you want?

            For that is what happens if America goes home.

            Its a simple question.

            Why can’t you answer it?

            I’ll tell you why.

            Like most fucked in the the head Libertarians you’re full of weakly reasoned rubbish that is barely discernible from anything any far left Progressive might say.

          • Mitch82

            If you’re done with your tantrum and throwing silly insults around, I’ll answer your question a second time. Yes, I think the US should leave. If they have to invade a country under false pretenses because they won’t pay going rates for their oil (not to mention using our armed forces so that we can get a cut of the profit), and you agree with that, then we’ll never see eye to eye.

            So now that I’ve answered your question twice, answer mine once – what happens if the US takes an interest in the oil supposedly sitting offshore in New Zealand, and we tell them that they can’t have it for half price?

          • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

            I don’t have a clue what you are talking about.

            Its not the US you will need to worry about anyway for chrissakes.

            When the Chicoms have the freedom to go anywhere on the globe they want, and control any strategic sea or land mass, and with complete access to all of the globes resources, they’ll have completely defeated the US in about 50 years.

            IOW the country that was founded on freedom will have been defeated by totalitarian communists, and its dullards like you and dopey Ron Paul (who wears false eyebrows) who will have allowed that to happen.

            And how long do you think Taiwan of NZ or any other parts of the west will last as free countries after that has happened?

            If you’d have said the same stuff back in WWII all the Jews would have been gassed by Hitler by now. Is that an event you would have been happy to take responsibility for?

            Libertarians are clueless and your ranting here reminds me of just how clueless.

          • Mitch82

            Okay – you don’t have a clue what I’m taking about, and I can’t find any sense in your posts now, so I guess we’re done for the day. Seeya tomorrow, Red.

          • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

            Its not hard.

            You’re saying the US should withdraw from the international stage and I’m pointing out to you the natural long term political consequences of that event.

            What’s to understand?

          • Gazzaw

            I wish the US would come to our shores & secure Dotcom Mitch.

          • fozzie

            “I’d be happy if both of these guys were assassinated”

            What a disgusting thing to say ..

          • Mitch82

            Okay, I’ll retract that.

            I’d be happy if they were both hit by the same bus.

      • Botti

        Ezra Klein should not be hired by any reputable news outlet. He basically along with the other JournoListers clearly conspired to spin the news to help Obama.
        http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/22/AR2010072206024.html

        • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

          Exactly right, and we get gullible naive idiots like Mitch falling over themselves to give him credibility.

          He was a journolister, and apparently this just means nothing to Mitch.

          • Mitch82

            Where have I tried to give him credibility? As I said, I hadn’t heard of him today, could care less who he is. The excerpt that WO quoted could have been written by Colin Craig and I’d still agree with it.

            Cut the hissy fit.

          • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

            Its no hissy fit.

            Just reply to my post above please. (querying your support for islamist propaganda)

            I’m curious to see the depth of your political opinion.

          • Mitch82

            Replied, and I’ve answered twice. It’s funny – when I comment on Romney’s campaign, I’m gullible for believing manufactured news. When I don’t believe the official Fox News story of why we’re in Afghanistan, Iraq, et al, I’m spouting Islamist propaganda.

            Seriously, I’m now 100% positive you’re actually Bill O’Reilly.

          • http://truebluenz.com/ Redbaiter

            If you think its just about Iraq or Afghanistan you’re even more uninformed than I had believed.

      • The Aggravated Spectator

        That is not always the case, Mitch82

      • bristol

        If you read any newspaper, watch TV or turn your radio on, then
        you’ll know that Romney’s election campaign is a complete disaster. How do you
        know that? Well you know it the same way that Soviet citizens knew that their
        economy was booming and it would only be a matter of time before the oppressed
        slaves of capitalism threw off their shackles and bowed their arrogant heads to
        the hammer and sickle. They read it in the paper, saw it on TV, or heard it on
        the radio.

  • Andrei

    Posted before but worth posting again, a classic blast from the past – 1948 in fact

  • cows4me

    It’s not over till the fat lady sings. A lot can happen in the next month or so, a war in the middle east, economic collapse, the break up of Europe, China and Japan could have a set to or we could just have a good old fashion political scandal, something like fast and furious. Old Barry might have time to do the professional golf circuit yet.

    • fozzie

      Tha fat lady has not only sung – but she’s left the building ! Romney has to go down as one of the worst presidential candidates ever – he’s a joke – pure and simple !

      • Gazzaw

        fozzie, for once we are in agreement. Not just Romney, the whole GOP campaign team. Wouldn’t you love to be a donor?

        • fozzie

          What I wouldn’t mind Gazzaw is a share of those millions that are currently ‘pissing up’ against the wall – they would be best in invest it in the Caymans until next time – silly thing is that the campaign team was hand picked by the great man himself … there are plenty GOP operatives that are shaking their heads in disbelief- hell I’ve seen local council campaigns here run with more strategy and discipline !

  • Guest

    Yes. I doubt Romney can win, but it is possible that Obama could lose.

  • Botti

    They should start using the video bio of Romney that apparently donors found quite moving and was meant to be used at the Convention during Prime Time. Instead they scrapped it for Clint Eastwood’s performance.
    Also, test groups found that ads highlighting Obama’s relationship with white hating preacher Jeremiah Wright were VERY effective. However, McCain was too gutless to use them. Time to get as nasty as the Democrat thugs.

  • 2ndAmendment

    Romney remains ahead when you poll the likely voters in the swing states

    Ahead on likely voters.

    In fact Romney moved farther ahead as Obama’s bounce failed.

    I’ll just say this again: Romney remains ahead on on likely voters in the swing states.

  • SaggyNaggy

    Bizarre to see ANYBODY writing off Romney when he is projected to win 241 Electoral College votes on Rasmussen’s current polling. And he is less than 2% behind in Ohio, Virginia and Florida. If he flips 1% of the vote in Florida, or flips the other two, he’s President. If you dismiss Romney on these numbers, you’re not only an optimist, you’re FUCKING STUPID.

    • fozzie

      If you are relying on the Rasmussen polls to deliver Mittens then you are living in an alternate universe ! Notoriously our of step with reality – go to fivethirtyeight.com for the real oil – and look at the swing states – it’s about electoral college votes and Romney is trailing in all but one – and we are yet to see the fallout from this latest weeks of mitthaps !

      • SaggyNaggy

        Would that be the reality where they accurately predicted the results of the last two elections?

        538 is only as good as the polls which contribute to it, and those are all godawful D+11 polls. Which you are free to believe, but personally I don’t think that many Democrats will turn out this time around.

  • http://htt:://www.pukeko.net.nz/blog chrisgale

    Gallup has Romney and Bama tied. Ain;t over. Link is
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

    Election 2012 Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney
    Among registered voters

    Download complete trend

    ObamaRomney 09/13-19/201247%47%09/12-18/201247%46%09/11-17/201247%46%09/10-16/201248%45%09/9-15/201248%45%09/8-14/201249%45%09/7-13/201249%44%09/6-12/201250%44%09/5-11/201250%43%09/4-10/201250%44%

    These are the results when registered voters are asked:
    “Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were
    the Democratic Party’s candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican
    Party’s candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or
    Mitt Romney, the Republican?”

  • http://htt:://www.pukeko.net.nz/blog chrisgale

    My nice table, Whale, turned into a set of mashed up numbers, Sorry.

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