Is Farrar telling the Conservatives to concentrate on East Coast Bays?

David Farrar blogs about reports the Conservatives are thinking of campaigning in Epsom:

Actually I would say Epsom is more liberal than other electorates such as Tamaki.

My belief is that Paul Goldsmith will become MP for Epsom at the next election, so long as his name is on the ballot paper. I don’t think Epsom wants to become the tactical voting capital of NZ.

If I was advising the Conservatives, I’d tell them to look for a seat where it is likely a National MP will retire in 2014. Their chances are best there.

Farrar is always good at analysis, and will tell you that winning a seat from an incumbent is near impossible. This means Colin Craig will struggle to beat the extremely popular local MP Mark Mitchell in Rodney, who already pasted him once, or the high profile and high name recognition Maggie Barry in North Shore.

This leaves just one seat north of the harbour bridge, East Coast Bays. For some time now it has been rumoured that Murray McCully has been offered three years practicing diplomacy in gay Paris, where he can pretend to be ambassador while examining the cultural implications of the Folies Bergere from the New Zealand taxpayers perspective.

Enhanced by Zemanta
  • CoNZervative

    Oldddddd story. Posted on ECBays as Nat coat tail to Consv back in mid-August. Catch-up boys.

  • CoNZervative
  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    Look Whale Oil – You may not like Colin, but if you want to keep out the toxic coalition out of power in 2014, Emperor Key needs partners and he hasn’t any at the moment with Banks disappearing and NZ First unreliable. So he has to make some compromises for keeping the evil forces away.

  • WayneO

    Piss off. That’s my electorate. The conservatives archaic views are not well tolerated here.

    Why oh why can ACT not get their act together (pun not intended). A strong and effective liberal far right party is needed and once and for all wipe these conservative bigots off the political map.

    • Travis Poulson

      Alright here’s a scenario. National builds a coalition, United Future and Act somehow manages to survive, (ok, maybe not Act) And National is in talks with Conservative and Maori Party for the final coalition partner, who’s it gonna be for you?

      • WayneO

        Maori, because they will sell their grandmother to stay in government. If they don’t join National they will head for political oblivion (which is where Colin belongs).

99%