David Farrar blogs about reports the Conservatives are thinking of campaigning in Epsom:
Actually I would say Epsom is more liberal than other electorates such as Tamaki.
My belief is that Paul Goldsmith will become MP for Epsom at the next election, so long as his name is on the ballot paper. I donâ€™t think Epsom wants to become the tactical voting capital of NZ.
If I was advising the Conservatives, Iâ€™d tell them to look for a seat where it is likely a National MP will retire in 2014. Their chances are best there.
Farrar is always good at analysis, and will tell you that winning a seat from an incumbent is near impossible. This means Colin Craig will struggle to beat the extremely popular local MP Mark Mitchell in Rodney, who already pasted him once, or the high profile and high name recognition Maggie Barry in North Shore.
This leaves just one seat north of the harbour bridge, East Coast Bays. For some time now it has been rumoured that Murray McCully has been offered three years practicing diplomacy in gay Paris, where he can pretend to be ambassador while examining the cultural implications of the Folies Bergere from the New Zealand taxpayers perspective.