National’s Caucus Issues, Ctd

Steven Joyce’s strategic stupidity with MMP means National has no coalition options and needs to cling to power now at all costs. Backbenchers know this, and know that they have him by the balls because he can’t rely on the maoris without getting it in the arse from the voters.

There are two ways National MPs can cause problems. All of them have the option of crossing the floor, and a few in marginal seats have the option of threatening to resign and bring down the government. The first is a pretty drastic step and would take a seriously pissed off backbencher. The second is a much bigger problem because if there is a by election and National loses the balance of power shifts.

The MPs with marginal seats are:

Paula Bennett – 9
Nicky Wagner  - 47
Kate Wilkinson – 642
Nikki Kaye – 717
Sam Lotu-Iiga – 3021
Chris Tremain – 3701
Jonathan Young  - 4270
Tim Macindoe – 4,418
Anne Tolley – 4774

The ministers, Bennett, Wilkinson, Tremain and Tolley look pretty safe in their ministerial portfolios. If Key gives them the arse they can tell him to stick it and force a by-election. It looks like Comrade Kate might have got a get out of jail free card.

Of the backbenchers if I were Steven Joyce or John Key I would expect my buttocks to clench every time I got a call from any of Wagner, Kaye, Lotu-Iiga, Young and MacIndoe. And I would be prepared with a bribe to keep them from forcing a by-election, because without them there is every chance Labour would win the seat. The power of incumbency is massive, and these MPs will know it.

  • botti

    There must be something inherent in right of centre political parties that make them incredibly short sighted? In the UK, the distribution of seats is hugely slanted against the Conservatives. But it seems Cameron & co have done nothing to review the electoral boundaries.
    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2010/04/if-the-tories-get-15million-more-votes-than-labour-mr-brown-would-still-win-more-commons-seats.html
    And in the US the Republicans continue to support low skill labour from Mexico even though those voters & their descendents overwhelmingly vote Democrat.

    • James Stephenson

      I take it you missed the spat over Lords reform which lead to the Lib Dems refusing to support the boundary review as a tit-for-tat then?

      • Botti

        Yes, I did miss that. Cheers.

    • 2ndAmendment

      those voters & their descendents overwhelmingly vote Democrat

      Those “from Mexico” aren’t legitimate voters. And to their credit, the GOP has been working very hard indeed to ensure, this time around, that only legitimate American voters will be counted.

      • Botti

        Note I said descendents – those who are born in the US gain citizenship. The US hispanic population (not including illegal overstayers) is around 50 million. The Republicans are fine on illegal immigration but in terms of reducing low skill LEGAL immigration they are invisible (or support it to keep wages down). They overlook that demographically they are wiping themselves out. That has already happened in California to an extent.
        Curiously, if the US had the same demographics it did in 1976 McCain would have beaten Obama.

  • Grizz30

    What ever happened to the Moroney Effect?

  • Redbaiter

    NZ has to change course.

    If National can’t achieve that change of course then they might as well give up the wheel and let the ship hit the rocks.

    It seems like utter economic collapse and a serious dose of real poverty
    is the only thing that will get some voters and some politicians thinking
    rationally again.

    • 2ndAmendment

      Ship’s already on the rocks, holed below the waterline & sinking fast —

      as anyone who can read a balance sheet can see

  • Redbaiter

    NZ has to change course.

    If National can’t achieve that change of course then they might as well give up the wheel and let the ship hit the rocks.

    It seems like utter economic collapse and a serious dose of real poverty
    is the only thing that will get some voters and some politicians thinking
    rationally again.

  • Redbaiter

    Apolgies for the double comment.

    Whale this disqus system has been a fuck for the dogs since you first installed it.

    • http://www.whaleoil.co.nz Whaleoil

      Deleted dupe comments

    • jonno1

      The problem seems to be that when you refresh after posting the post disappears. But if you refresh again it reappears. In the meantime you may have done a repost, resulting in duplication. Presumably a Disqus bug.

  • Redbaiter

    Apologies for the double comment.

    Whale this disqus system has been a fuck for the dogs since you first installed it.

  • CoNZervative

    None of these MPs would go there, unless they were Ruth Richardson who had a point to make to the Great Helmsman, because everyone above Sam a) wouldn’t win, and b) they’d be stuffed even after a post-JK gummint and never have any chance of diddly squat ever again. They’ll ride SJ machinations. These instabilities have always been there under MMP (member poor ol Jenny & Winston?).

    The bigger issues are relationship with Maori Party (ie its new Leadership) and the Conservatives (reincarnated ACT and UF). NZF will be in hell.

  • CoNZervative

    None of these MPs would go there, unless they were Ruth Richardson who had a point to make to the Great Helmsman, because everyone above Sam a) wouldn’t win, and b) they’d be stuffed even after a post-JK gummint and never have any chance of diddly squat ever again. They’ll ride SJ machinations. These instabilities have always been there under MMP (member poor ol Jenny & Winston?).

    The bigger issues are relationship with Maori Party (ie its new Leadership) and the Conservatives (reincarnated ACT and UF). NZF will be in hell.

  • coNZervative

    None of these MPs would go there, unless they were Ruth Richardson who had a point to make to the Great Helmsman, because everyone above Sam a) wouldn’t win, and b) they’d be stuffed even after a post-JK gummint and never have any chance of diddly squat ever again. They’ll ride SJ machinations. These instabilities have always been there under MMP (member poor ol Jenny & Winston?).

    The bigger issues are relationship with Maori Party (ie its new Leadership) and the Conservatives (reincarnated ACT and UF). NZF will be in hell.

  • coNZervative

    None of these MPs would go there, unless they were Ruth Richardson who had a point to make to the Great Helmsman, because everyone above Sam a) wouldn’t win, and b) they’d be stuffed even after a post-JK gummint and never have any chance of diddly squat ever again. They’ll ride SJ machinations. These instabilities have always been there under MMP (member poor ol Jenny & Winston?).

    The bigger issues are relationship with Maori Party (ie its new Leadership) and the Conservatives (reincarnated ACT and UF). NZF will be in hell.

  • 2ndAmendment

    National has no coalition options

    Rubbish, Whale. National has the Conservatives.

    Drop the threshold to 3% and they’re home laughing.

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