I was on The Huddle last night with Susan Wood and Josie Pagani.
Our topics were:
Cunliffe has the numbers to lead
Labour Conference members gave the caucus a 40% tipping
point for a leadership challenge. It was approved 53% to 47%.Assuming the new leader
party voting rules apply as demonstrated at the conference – Cunliffe has a 13%
margin over Shearer.
The Unions and Affiliates have 40% of the Leadership vote
and got 53% to vote in favour of the 40% threshold. They gained a 13% swing
from the rank and file. (53% – 40% = 13%) or 24% swing overall. (13% divided by
53%)So if Cunliffe gets his 14 members for a tip at the top job,
the party has already shown they are 53% in favour of hard left –Unions,
Affiliates and rank and file lefties.
The margin win to Cunliffe on a party vote will increase
because Andrew Little will puff his chest out and more importantly Shearer does
not have the $100M whispering campaign the Unions can launch.
Andrew Little will be Deputy.
The Unions own Labour now. I have said once and I will say
it a hundred times again
Two wins for them in 12 months: 20% Union vote on Labour
Leadership and reduced tipping point for a Leadership Challenge.
Owl, I do love the work you do, however, on this one I have to say you may have taken a step to far on your conclusion. 53% of members did vote for a 40% tipping point for a leadership challenge, BUT, that is a constitutional change and not just relating to the existing leadership issues, so you can’t use those numbers to figure out Cunliffe’s chances. That would be similar to saying that keeping MMP recieved 56% of the vote in the 2011 referendum, and since Labour pushed for this they will recieve 56% of the general election vote.
After Cunliffe being dropped to the back benches (as possibly their only competent front bencher) I believe he will have the numbers come Feb, and he will be the new leader of Labour (roll out this video clip every chance you get when that happens
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvenqcfX1j8), but you can’t assume that on the leadership challenge vote alone.
By the way, keep the heat on the Unions, sick of these whiney fuckers telling businesses how to run, then showing time and again that they can’t even keep their own books in order!