Is Shearer really that bad?

The pundits all reckon Shearer is rooted, but what do the numbers say? What would Nate Silver reckon?

The math looks like Shearer will be PM after the next election because National don’t have any coalition partners.

The pundits should explain what part of the math they don’t understand, or if they are just auditioning for a spot on Fox News – New Zealand edition.

I feel sorry for David Shearer, other more greedy members of his caucus want what is inevitable unless National can find partners or some other sort of electoral catastrophe doesn’t befall other parties.

David Shearer is a good guy being white-anted by his own team.

  • Mitch82

    “David Shearer is a good guy being white-anted by his own team.”

    ..that’s a.. turnaround?

  • Whafe

    Yes, Shearer is that bad. He may well be a nice guy, but nice guys always come second..
    Shearer is not a leaders asshole… Leaders lead from the front. Yep there may well be allsorts happening within his cabinet / party, but a leader would deal with it… And for sure, there is not a great line up of MP’s in the waiting with the Pinko’s. But doinng nothing is worse than trying to do something and losing the battle, at least you earn some respect from your people…
    Shearer is weaker than piss….
    But he is great for National

  • http://unsolicitedious.wordpress.com/ Unsolicitedious

    You feel sorry for Shearer? Come on Cameron! Rather than asking whether Shearer is really that bad you need to be asking, and getting the rest of NZ to ask, whether Shearer – or anyone in Labour/Greens/NZ First is good enough.

    And the answer is an emphatic no. Shearer isnt worthy of our leadership, neither is anyone on the left….and nor will they ever be. You know why – left wing politics are fundamentally flawed. Sure I’m no hard core right winger, but I sure as hell aint left for a very good reason. Nothing about their policies encourage self-management, personal responsibility and economic growth. The fact that any left wingers exist on the taxpayer’s dollar is a blight on our nation’s future and our moral compass.

    Like I have said before, left wingers are like the generation me parents from Gen Y and beyond…..spoiling, wrapping on cotton wool & no boundaries is always bound to result in a nation of self absorbed, narcissistic lazy assholes. It is no accident that we have more people feeding off the taxpayer tit than ever……and that is by just looking at the data between 2000 and 2008.

    As far as I am concerned, all your posts about Shearer’s leaderships are drawing in a misguided sympathy and are side stepping what should be your main goal – which is to ensure the right (or rather centre right) remain in government.

    Believing in the right to own guns or as some of your more extreme readers feel, that LGBT are mentally ill doesnt make you a right winger. But believing in personal responsibility and responsible fiscal policy does.

  • Michael

    Considering on current polling David Shearer will be Primer Minister next election I don’t think he’s doing all that badly.

  • conwaycaptain

    Next election will see a Nat/NZF/Maori co alition.
    Winnie wants the baubles of power and Nats will offer him Foreign Affairs.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=706456651 Nigel Sherrie Fairweather-Hunt

      yep. its making the best of a bad situation. i think i could live with that.

    • Apolonia

      Winston has already aligned himself with Labour and is out for utu against National after being hauled before the privileges committee. A Nat/Maori/Conservative coalition remains a real possibility though.

  • arkhad

    Are you mixing the numbers? The way I understand it the maths look like PM Labour after the election. That is not the same as PM Shearer.

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    Yes, finally NZ has come to realise the fact that Labour will be in power in 2014 unless Emperor gets his act together and patch up with Winnie the poo.

  • Pete George

    Shearer still has two supporters:
    ‏@VernonSmall
    John Key says he and David Shearer are both nice guys.

    And
    “It has been rather disconcerting to read some of the commentary about
    all round nice guy David Shearer recently, not least because it takes
    the focus off more important issues. Of particular concern is the amount
    of articles that completely write him off without a second chance, and
    as far as I can tell, without really giving any valid reasons for doing
    so…”
    http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-13112012/comment-page-1/#comment-546787

    Valid reasons, now let me see, ah…the Jackal must be Shearer’s advisor.

    • Jester

      Todd is an insignificant little arse licker thats for sure!

      • Pete George

        Jackal is usually blind to anything he doesn’t want to know. He has ignored an avalanche of angst at the Standard, with includes a lot of reasons and reasoning. He’s just posted “C’mon Uturn, that’s about as silly as Pete George claiming that I’m Shearer’s advisor.”

        Ah, no, I didn’t intend to claim he was actually Shearer’s advisor, I was inferring he is as oblivious to what many many people are saying, just like Shearer’s advisors (Shearer claims never to read blogs so his comments on them must be advised by his advisors).

        Put another way, Shearer’s comments this morning as reported by media suggest his advisors lie to him, or they are as blind to reality as Jackal.

  • Auto_Immune

    I wouldn’t call it “inevitiable”. If Grant Robertson took the top spot, Labour would probably lose a couple of percentage points to either NZ First or the Conservatives, which could dramatically change the makeup of Parliament and Government overall.

    Of course Cunliffe is a different beast, but does he have caucus numbers?

  • Tristanb

    I don’t feel sorry for Shearer at all. He bludged from the United Nations for years. The UN is a horrible corrupt organisation that simply takes from citizens and gives to politicians. It is nothing but a large trough filled with money, travel, accommodation and prostitutes. Look who ran there after being hated out of NZ: Helen Clark and Chris Carter. Now they just sit there and bludge from all the world’s taxpayers, instead of just NZ’s.

    Anyway, so after the UN he gets given a sacrificial post as leader of Labour. Goff was terrible, he wouldn’t last until the next election, but Labour was so unpopular no-one wanted to lead. So Shearer gets an easy post he doesn’t care about, gets a “leader’s” salary, and just has to do this for a couple of years before he is usurped. (After which he’ll be given another bullshit ‘job’ somewhere in the world.)

    The think that irks me most about him is his dishonesty. He should admit that his leadership is in question by Labour supporters – it is. He doesn’t need to tell us his successor is waiting until closer to the election, but don’t lie to us Shearer. We’re not idiots – even Labour voters aren’t that dumb.

  • niggly

    “… other more greedy members of his caucus want what is inevitable unless…”.

    Hmm, you might be onto something Cam? With the last election only 1 year ago and another 2 years to run until the next election, with Labour on a bit more support now than when Phil Goff was at the helm (and even he wasn’t dumped early), with Shearer not being tainted with the Klarenfuhrer Administration, with Grant Robertson as Deputy almost invisible with the electorate, with Cunliffe taking pretty much a backseat presence (ie pretty much invisible to the electorate at large too), with David Parker trying to get some runs on the board (occassionally noticed by the beltway/media but also pretty much invisible to the electorate at large as well) …. why now are the knives out for Shearer?

    Not unless some of the anti-Shearer types (supporters and pollies) are as you say, greedy, and are making an early play for the leadership now (rather than wait for another 6 months to see whether Labour picks up more in the polls) on the blinkered assumption that they will become both Leader and then ultimately PM in 2014?

    If so – lol, I think these turkey’s are deluded if they think some grand coalition of Labour, Greens (featuring an upstart Norman) and NZF can work together. Could you imagine Winston comfortable with Norman as deputy PM? That Coalition would be lucky to last a few months before the pressure tears them apart!

    Anyway if I were Labour I’d be giving Shearer more time, I’d instead be looking at replacing his deputy, Roberston, who really is much more invisible than Shearer in the electorate.

    I can’t understand exactly what Robertson has achieved for Labour? (Apart from keeping the coalition of gaggles together and at the forefront of Labour).He never fronts anything in the media and let’s Shearer sink (eg GCSB tape fiasco) – what’s the point of him?

    Look at other deputys of note:

    English – might have a tight financial arse clenched shut (causing grief to many) but he knows his shit and fronts up well in parliament and can get his views across to the media.

    Cullen – I may not like the “rich prick” but at least he too can articulate his points, and get them across well. Useful debater in the House etc.

    Anderton – one eyed and full of himself – but again a good communicator and comes up with ideas he won’t let go off (eg Kiwibank).

    Where the hell does Roberston fit into this picture?

  • JeffDaRef

    Shearer is, quite clearly, not cut out to be a visionary leader.
    Cunliffe is the one I fear – yes he has his head firmly inserted in his own rear end, but he is the one guy who can speak with conviction and clearly articulate his vision – regardless of whether some of us care for it or not.
    In this day and age of bumper sticker politics, he has enough to convince people in short soundbites that he has the goods – exactly where Shearer continues to fall over.
    Key still has this, but this year has been terrible for him – he’s had to spend more time explaining balls-ups and hasnt had the opportunity to put this to good effect.

  • Blair Mulholland

    If National don’t make the party vote preferential, they are f*cked.

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