Some notes on Labour’s problems

I have taken the time to collate the musings of many of my Labour and left-wing sources. I did this so I could get a gauge on what was transpiring within Labour.

I will share them with you.

1. Instead of the left and the right, the factions have morphed: Cunliffe left; Shearer old guard; the gays; the unions.  These factions are changing rapidly.
2. Only one South Island MP supports David Cunliffe: Lianne Dalziel.  But Dalziel appears to have fallen out with her two former sisterhood friends, Ruth Dyson and Maryan Street.  Both Dyson and Street are Shearer supporters who appear unwilling to trust Cunliffe.  This represents an old-guard split within the left.
3. Andrew Little spoke passionately in opposition to the leadership rule changes endorsed at Labour’s Ellerslie conference.  Yet Little’s former EPMU union voted for reform.  Why?  Unionists such as Lynne Pillay and her partner Mike Sweeney (both former EPMU) were apparently lobbying for David Cunliffe.
4. The Maori sector is split.  Shane Jones is sticking with Shearer for now (how long will he be in Parliament?).  But Nanaia Mahuta, Louisa Wall and (to a lesser extent) Rino Tirikatene are in David Cunliffe’s camp.  Parekura Horomia is just plain tired and is a candidate for an early departure before the 2014 General Election.
5. Judith Tizard is said to be busy rustling up delegates to vote at the next list selection conference, and those votes are likely to be cast against Jacinda Ardern.  The problem for Ardern is she is seen as being in Shearer’s camp whereas Auckland is a comparative hotbed of Cunliffe supporters.
6. Not to be outdone, Ardern has built up a large group of supporters, particularly among young people.  Her base in the Princes Street branch at the University of Auckland.  Ardern’s isolation from a number of women in the caucus as well as her backing for Shearer has provoked jealousies and resentment, which has forced her to fight hard against opposition from within her own region.
7. Moana Mackey and Sue Moroney are reliant on a good list ranking and are therefore influenced by the power relationships within the Labour Party.  Both are out of favour with Shearer and have good reason to want Cunliffe if the latter can secure the backing of the membership and unions in a leadership spill.
8. Charles Chauvel would like to replace Annette King in Rongotai.  The trouble is few people trust Chauvel, and Annette King is said to hate him.  Therefore Chauvel too is caught in the same bind at Mackey and Moroney, and is therefore a Cunliffe supporter.
9. William Sio owes his Mangere seat to the unions who installed him.  He is therefore sympathetic to Cunliffe and will be heavily influenced in Parliament by the Service and Food Workers Union.
10. The head of the Service and Food Workers Union (SFWU) in Auckland is Jill Ovens, who was the former leader of the Alliance Party.  Both Jill and her partner Len Richards have come back into the Labour fold after years in the wilderness and have emerged as factional players.  They appear to be active at the office owned by Prue Kapua, which is rented to Parliamentary Services for the purpose of housing Kapua’s civil union partner Louisa Wall (a Cunliffe supporter) and possibly Nanaia Mahuta (Cunliffe’s preferred choice for deputy leader).
11. Junior whip Darien Fenton currently supporters Shearer.  Her problem is the Auckland division of her former union (SFWU) is now controlled by Jill Ovens who beat Fenton’s hand-picked replacement Lisa Eldret in an acrimonious 2006 contest.  As a list MP Fenton is therefore vulnerable to the ebb and flow of factional infighting, particularly in Auckland.
12. Shearer’s strongest support comes from Phil Goff, Annette King and Trevor Mallard who either support the status quo out of loyalty or a mutual dislike for Cunliffe.  Of Shearer’s supporters, 14 (Goff, King, Mallard, Woods, Dyson, Clark, Curran, Faafoi, Hipkins, Lees-Galloway, O’Connor, Twyford, Grant Robertson, and Ross Robertson) hold safe seats and are therefore less reliant on the list.
13. Of all of Shearer’s supporters, Twyford is seen as someone who could be open to switching to Cunliffe.  He is seen as close to the left, is regarded as ambitious for promotion and inclined to hedge his beats in the secret ballot.  His Te Atatu electorate borders both Mt Albert (Shearer) and New Lynn (Cunliffe).
14. Although the rules require the leadership to be determined by a new system, Labour could end up having a spill for the top job while retaining Grant Robertson for the deputy’s position.  In which case a Cunliffe victory could deliver a Cunliffe/Robertson pairing whereby the leader and disliked and opposed by the deputy leader.
15. Ross Robertson will be challenged in 2014 if he does not retire.  He will almost certainly be replaced by a union-endorsed candidate meaning Shearer loses a vote.
16. Annette King is unlikely to remain the Member of Parliament for Rongotai.  Labour is worried that an early departure from her will see an opening for Russel Norman, so she will see out the term.  Initially Phil Goff’s replacement for leader was supposed to be Darren Hughes, and he would have had the inside running for Rongotai.  Now Rongotai has become one of the prime seats for list and aspiring new MPs who sense the need for a safe seat.
17. If Shane Jones is forced out of Parliament due to fallout from the forthcoming report from the Auditor General, he will be replaced by Carol Beaumont.  That outcome will likely mean Shearer loses a vote and Cunliffe gains a vote.
18. Labour currently has a leader who the caucus wants but the wider party does not, and an alternative leader who the wider party possibly wants by the majority of caucus despises.
19. If neither Shearer nor Cunliffe are acceptable, either Grant Robertson or Andrew Little could become compromise candidates.  It remains to be seen if either can muster a consensus of support across the different factions.