Stuart Nash is making a bold prediction on John Key:
I will go out on a limb and predict that John Key will not lead the National party into the next election.Â I have thought this for a number of months now, however, the events of last week, with Key fainting in a Christchurch restaurant, haveÂ reinforced that belief. Â We all know KeyÂ doesnâ€™tÂ need the money, and who could blame him for leaving the most stressful job in the country to spend more time â€˜at home with his familyâ€™.
There is a reasonable amount of speculation floating around on this…some of it might have credence…but is mostly wild speculation.
I even have heard that the reason Key went to Antarctica and attempted to go to the South Pole was to tick off his bucket list of things to do while PM. Clark certainly made a
couple of trip to Antarctica in her time, which was a shameless photo op with Sir Edmund Hillary before he died. The more wild speculation too is that his failure to get to the pole meant he came back and changed his re-shuffle plans to be more bold so he could have a crack at 2014 rather than just watching the clock wind down.
Nash though has other reasonings:Â
Key has beaten Labour legend Helen Clark and senior Labour member Phil Goff.Â He has nothing else to prove; and in fact to lose to a relative noviceÂ like Shearer would, in his mind, reduce him to a level of mediocrity (and the chances of this happening will increase significantly as the election draws near).
Very few Prime Ministers get to determine the time and nature of their departure from office.Â Most are either voted out (Clark, Shipley, Muldoon, Rowling, Marshall and Nash), stabbed in the back by their own caucus (Bolger and Moore) or leave in a box (Savage, Fraser and Kirk).Â Only Lange and Holyoake immediately come to mind as PMs who resigned without being pushed â€“ and Holyoake did, in fact, lose the 1957 election as PM.Â Palmer also left of his own volition, but he was really an ill-suited caretaker, despite being one of the most intelligent men ever to enter politics.
Thos are valid reasons, his next one if fanciful:
Likewise, Key is a man who changed the law so that he gained the title â€˜Right Honourableâ€™Â for the rest of his life.Â He is currently the only person in NZ to have this title.Â All other politicians who have this honorific (Winston Peters for example) do so because they were appointed to the Privy Council.Â When the current monarch dies, they revert back to being simply â€˜Honourableâ€™ (like every other cabinet minister).Â If Key believes there is a chance Labour will once again remove the titles system â€“ although they have not said they will â€“ he would, in my opinion, rather retire as the Right Honourable Sir John Key than risk losing and remaining simply John.Â IÂ wouldnâ€™tÂ be surprised if he received a knighthood in the 2014 New Years honours list.
The rest of the post is a rather hopeful defence of his good mate David Shearer…who is as doomed today as he was the moment he started in the job.