Reshuffles always mean bruised egos. Ministers given the arse get all sooky. Aspiring ministers see a vacuous, useless, drunken fool promoted ahead of them and start looking at options outside of parliament.
| Seat | Winner | Loser | Margin |
| Waitakere | BENNETT, Paula (NAT) | SEPULONI, Carmel (LAB) | 9 |
| Christchurch Central | WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) | BURNS, Brendon (LAB) | 47 |
| Waimakariri | WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) | COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB) | 642 |
| Auckland Central | KAYE, Nikki (NAT) | ARDERN, Jacinda (LAB) | 717 |
| Maungakiekie | LOTU-IIGA, Peseta Sam (NAT) | BEAUMONT, Carol (LAB) | 3,021 |
When you have a one seat majority like John Key does you have to be mindful of what happens if someone decides to jack it in to pursue opportunities in the private sector, or sit on the cross benchers or generally just cause havoc from within caucus.
MMP is a strange system where if a list MP leaves they are replaced by the next person on the list, but if a by-election in a seat held is lost there is no replacement on the list.
This means if any of Paula, Nicky, Kate, Nikki or Sam decide to leave parliament National loses a seat if they can’t win the by-election. None of these seats are National seats, they are seats held by the personal popularity of a MP who has done the time required in the electorate.
That bribe for the Maoris better be a really, really big one Prime Minister.
