I’ve been thinking a fair bit about David Shearer’s leadership.
To my mind he is doomed. The much heralded and signalled…well required…leadership vote was held and afterwards Labour rather embarrassingly announced that David Shearer was endorsed as leader in a ballot that had only one candidate by “an overwhelming margin“.
That got me thinking and it got me scratching around my Labour sources…that didn’t sound right…”an overwhelming margin”…what does that even mean?
Then I was emailed by a reader who heard Katie Bradford-Crozier talking to Justin duFresne this morning on NewstalkZB. She said that int he¬†leadership¬†vote there were 10 abstentions.
This confirms what I have heard too from my Labour sources. Ten abstentions.¬†
Ten from a caucus of 34…nearly a third of the caucus abstained from voting. The actual percentage is 29% of David Shearer’s caucus refused to vote for him.
That is not¬†“an overwhelming margin”…it is an embarrassment…and only 3 votes short of the trigger.
David Shearer has better be very, very careful with his re-shuffle.
But imagine parliament now…speaker after speaker for National will be able to ask if any member of Labour is one of the cowardly 10 who abstained. All the while slowly undermining Shearer’s facade of legitimacy.
Who are the ten though? We can certainly guess some of them.
David Cunliffe, Nanaia Mahuta are two. Lianne Dalziel, Charles Chauvel and Cunliffe’s numbers girl Moana Mackey are another three…that is 5 so far.
Who are the other 5?
Ruth Dyson, Sue Moroney, Rajen Prasad, Darien Fenton, Louisa Wall and Phil Twyford have all been named as Cunliffe supporters before…that makes eleven, so I’d drop Prasad, he is a nobody in the party, the token Indian and knows it, it doesn’t matter to him who the leader is,, they will still need their token Indian. The other are all union¬†affiliated¬†with the exception of Twyford.
That is a pretty close approximation…now all it takes is for Shearer tyo continue to play his strong man routine and bomb his re0shuffle and it is all one for young and old…only three need to swap over.
The old biddies in the sisterhood should be able to swing Maryan Street across, and Chauvel will add his rainbow clout to the pressure on her. Only two more needed. Yeah, Shearer needs to be real careful, unless of course he axes Cunliffe supporters from his line up., but even that is fraught with danger because the factions kick in. Women, Maori, Gay, Union…interesting times.