Drought is connected with “Climate Change” and increasing…not so fast

Despite the glorious rainfall today there are still claims by many that the drought currently being experienced by most of the country is somehow linked with climate change and that we should get used to this. Perhaps we should stop listening to NIWA, the assorted climate alarmists and start listening to Princeton and Australian National University:

Released late last year (November) by Princeton and ANU:

A series of recent droughts from Australia to the United States has led some scientists to warn that global warming has already begun to increase worldwide drought. But new research from Princeton and the Australian National University in Canberra has found that this might not be the case…..

…A new analysis of drought conditions over the past 50 years has yielded a nuanced view of global trends. Red areas have experienced increasing levels of drought while blue areas have become less prone to dry conditions.¬†Overall, there has been less of a trend toward drought globally than previously thought,¬†Princeton researchers have found.¬†(Image courtesy of Justin Sheffield)….

….The greater detail of the Princeton model does mean it is more difficult to use and requires a far greater amount of data than other estimates.¬†In fact, the researchers said the data requirements precluded its widespread use by climate scientists until relatively recently,¬†when better satellite coverage and improvements in global data from ground weather stations provided more extensive and reliable estimates of meteorological variables such as precipitation, humidity and wind speed…..

So two questions:

When did Salinger leave NIWA?

Does NIWA used the discredited Palmer Drought Index or are they using the new Princeton Model?

  • David Broome

    Could call WO…I have googled that and it seems the Palmer Index was giving bad data for African Drought predictions hence the new one. It is an important question the MSM needs to ask NIWA (bets on whether this will happen?)

  • LesleyNZ

    This summer has been one like in my childhood – never ending golden weather. Drought has always been with us – some years worse than others. The words “Climate Change” have been such a great money spinner for anthropogenic global warmists. Thank goodness we have a reputable climate analyst in Philip Duncan and Weatherwatch. http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/ They have a face book page too which keeps you up to date. https://www.facebook.com/WeatherWatch.co.nz
    I thought Jim Salinger had left NIWA and was in the US? Maybe he just wanted to get on telly and in the media the other day. We have moved on from him and NIWA’s predictions. The government should give a contract to Weatherwatch and disband NIWA. Would save us taxpayers a lot of money and hot air from entering the atmosphere.

  • johnbronkhorst

    Has the climate changed over night…..I’m looking out of my office window….it is raining, has been (on and off) all night.

    • LesleyNZ

      If you are in Auckland – 4 seasons in one day – lots of climate change daily.

      • johnbronkhorst

        No I’m in “sunny Wellington”.

        • johnbronkhorst

          Where the politicians all believe they are responsible for the drought, after all, they all stood up at once and the collective sun shone out their arses.

          • unsol

            Apparently not John Key though – he said on Breakfast that he knows some will think he is being unreasonable, but he can’t make it rain!

  • JeffDaRef

    Last year summer was shitty and wet and we didnt hear a peep from these people.
    They’re the next wave of clairvoyants – clinging on to anything that strengthens their theory, ignoring anything thats inconvenient.
    Deb Webber and her mates should throw out a “Sensing Weather” programme…

    • cows4me

      Hold your tongue JeffDaRef, hearsay , “Last year summer was shitty and wet”, it was not, it was brilliant. This years summer has been shitty and the repercussions will take a few years to rectify.
      Yes it’s been a very bad drought but I remember ones when I was young, animals were starving and some even died of thirst. Thankful farming methods and systems are now many times more robust but this drought will still hurt. At the end of November milk production was 17% ahead of the year before, I’m now only 10% ahead and by the end of the season will probably be lucky to beat last years total. The last three weeks have been killers and the drought has really bitten hard but I’m not moaning there are many many worst off.

      • JeffDaRef

        Noone is denying the impact of the current drought – I’m just yet to be convinced theres any link to this mythical monster “climate change” we are told about.

        On another note – if you’re saying this year is going to end up equal to last year (give or take), why is there a need for handouts? Should you have contingencies built in to your planning?
        And yes that comment comes from the comfort of my city office – but as the grandson of a dairyman.

        • cows4me

          I’m not asking for a handout because I did build contingencies into my planning. We usually can expect several very dry months where we farm and as such have set the farm up for the dry. The extent of this drought have hit many that would normally get through this summer period. This year we put more area into summer crops but even this wasn’t enough. We generally farm understocked and milk once a day all year round, which makes a huge difference when things such as this happens. Many farmers are stocked to the hilt and buy in feed like PKE, this can be an insidious trap where more and more reliance is placed on off farm feed. Many have had to cull large numbers of stock and spend fortunes on stock feed. I believe the real reason farming has taken such a hit is that the mantra is all about production and not profit. It’s all very well producing huge quantities of product but when things like this drought come around the system collapses.

          • JeffDaRef

            Cheers for that – I cant wait until the next workplace debate when I can quote extensively from “a mate of mine who’s a farmer reckons…”
            It does sound though like you’re a minority who has a few contingencies in place.
            We all make our career choices and theres pros/cons to all of them – there arent handouts for every industry that struggles through events out of its own control, and certainly no long queue of farmers wanting to repay the goodwill when they’re pocketing squillion dollar payouts during the good times..

          • cows4me

            Yes Jeff we all have to make our own choices. I’m not saying I have all the answers and I doubt anyone really has but much of the problems stem from systems and resources been stretched beyond breaking point.

            As for farmers receiving welfare. Is it all right for government to rebuild houses for those that were not insured in CHCH ? Is it all right for the government to payout shareholders in private finance companies? Is it all right for government to pay billions in welfare to some that refuse to work or continually have kids to keep the benefits rolling in.? As far as I’m concerned it’s all or nothing. No doubt some in trouble may have done things differently but at least they are trying. If you have an issue with farmers receiving welfare you should perhaps attack the givers and not the receivers. And for pocketing squillions, I wish. We seem to have one good year then about five average years of course the exchange rate hasn’t helped.

          • JeffDaRef

            Dont get me started on your other examples – the Govt shouldnt be putting a cent towards ANY of them. Those of us who choose a low risk career (but dont whinge about what we’re paid), responsibly insure ourselves and make safe investment options end up picking up the tab for everyone else.
            You seem to have hit the nail on the head – one good year and five average years – perhaps more farmers when they have a good year should hold off buying up the flash tractors, big cars and overseas holidays and put some away for years like this.

          • cows4me

            You sure got that right Jeff.

          • unsol

            “mantra is all about production and not profit”

            Profit & farmers…..mutually exclusive I would have thought!

            Well done you on the good planning. Our farming friends are much the same…they are all in the south island, some in Canterbury which of course gets a drought most years, others further down who get hit each year by big snows.

            They don’t tend to have a lot of sympathy for those who fail to plan for the obvious.

            But like you say, many do seem to have been genuinely caught out – although 2 months of no rain shouldn’t be so difficult to accommodate.

          • cows4me

            The trouble is unsol the drought wasn’t 2 months, basically it’s been four months. We’ve had rain but no where the amount that was really needed.

  • thor42

    The greenies have conveniently ignored the greening of the Sahel Desert in the last 20-30 years. Not only that, but satellite pictures clearly show that the planet as a whole is greening too.

  • ConwayCaptain

    Instead of using ‘computer models” SHIT IN SHIT OUT they should be looking at actual weather over the last 200 years.
    There is a VAST pool of information in the vessels logs held by the ADmiralty and the UK Met Service from ships that have logged temp and wind etc in all parts of the world over the last 200+ years

  • JC

    “Does NIWA used the discredited Palmer Drought Index or are they using the new Princeton Model?”

    Anthony Watts has successfully used the Palmer DI to refute increasing drought claims, so it can’t be all bad.

    More generally it cracks me up to hear the warmers say “Worst drought in 70 years”, “Hottest temp since 1934″ and so on.. don’t they realise they are proving that the current climate has all been experienced before?

    JC

  • thor42

    I’ve been interested for quite some time in the very old (but very effective) rainwater-harvesting systems that are in place in a number of places in India. They *really* know how to manage water over there.

    Here’s a very good TED talk about those systems by a guy called Anupam Mishra.
    http://www.ted.com/talks/anupam_mishra_the_ancient_ingenuity_of_water_harvesting.html

    ( He has a strong accent, but if you can get used to that it’s a very good talk. )

    We in the West don’t seem to have the same history of water management (I guess because we haven’t needed it as much as the Indian people have). Anyway – there are some *great* solutions in the talk that he gives.

    Money is always the problem, of course.

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