It’s all over for Trump. It’s not all over for Trump

So, for a party that suspects the presidency is lost there is still a lot to play for. The party can throw resources at key house seats and senate races to try to retain control of Congress and continue the utter gridlock that strangled Barack Obama’s second term.

This is already happening unofficially. Donor money that would usually have gone to the presidential race is going elsewhere. A super PAC called the Congressional Leadership Fund announced this week that they are spending ten million on key House races. The Koch brother’s network have $750 million to spend and plan for a sizeable portion to go to senate races but none to Donald Trump.

There will be more where that came from. And either quietly or officially the party will also likely switch goals with the message ‘vote GOP for senate to stop Hillary going too far left’.

It’s an achievable goal. Hillary Clinton is strongly projected to win the presidential election, but the Senate is a tough hill to climb against incumbents, and the House will stay firmly Republican unless there’s a landslide because House elections are rigged, but just not in the way that Trump means (but more on that another time).

So there’s a lot to play for in the senate and house races for the republicans and a little money goes a long way in a local race where advertising is cheap and just a slight swing or a slightly elevated turnout can make a huge impact.

One: It’s still very early. It didn’t happen to Bob Dole until just days before the vote. The impact on morale, public sentiment and party unity are so uncertain and unsettling that there will be nerves about showing the hand too overtly or too soon.

Two: Trump is relying heavily on the party for aspects of his campaign to function at all. He has 80 staff and almost no ground operation while Hillary Clinton has a staff of more than 700 and dozens of local offices in key states. His lack of a professional infrastructure is exemplified by Jefferson County, Colorado. It’s a critical county in what should be a swing state and the Trump campaign there is being co-chaired by a 12-year-old. Bob Dole had a substantial infrastructure of his own and could cope. Donald Trump’s campaign could go down in a flaming heap without help from head office. This will give pause.

Three: It’s not over yet. Some of Trump’s disastrous national polling is down to how much support he has lost in strong Republican states that he will win regardless. It’s been such a strange year that anything could happen and a good week or two could make the Republican party wonder whether it’s worth keeping some skin in the game.

Four: Republican Chairman Reince Priebus will be genuinely unnerved about how Stephen K. Bannon might react if they leave Trump swinging in the wind. Mr Bannon already hates the party establishment. It’s quite possible that rather than quietly taking one for the team he would cry for blood and set Trump on a path of party destruction turning a bad situation worse. Donald Trump’s supporters are already angry and rife with paranoid, conspiracy theories. Their possible response is neither predictable nor pretty.

A Trump loss could get quite ugly, with a faction of the Republic Party and its supporters actively undermining key players for years to come.


Phil Smith, RNZ

  • biscuit barrel

    Its on a certain trajectory for Trump

  • Day Day

    Trump just needs a little luck. Whatever that ‘luck’ happens to be.

    • Catsings

      Trump is getting massive crowds to his rallies. If they’re any indication of his popularity then it’s not all over at all. Well, not until Nov 8. It’s very interesting.

      • biscuit barrel

        remember that the big reveal did nothing for KDC’s party. Trump spends his money on big arenas, while Clinton spends money on getting the vote out and filling the media with anti Trump ads.
        Its allways the swing voters you go after

    • Simo

      Emails – the electronic gift that keeps on giving

  • Boondecker

    If Clinton wins and continues Obama’s unrestrained influx of refugees and also grants citizenship amnesty to the potential 20 million plus illegals in the US, the future is over for any center / right political party. The Supreme Court could get laced with up 9 left-leaning justices out of the 12. The GOP would thus be decimated and become totally ineffective.

    Or a Trump win could stop all that. It’s that simple.

    • biscuit barrel

      There are only 9 Supreme Court judges. There is only 1 current vacancy

      • Boondecker

        One vacancy now. Over her presidency and spanning two terms, there are a number of aging SCJs who may very well drop off this mortal coil.

  • Monty’smate

    This article raises a few difficulties for even astute WO followers- just who is Stephen K. Bannon and what is his significance to the Presidential race? Have I missed something along the line?

    • Seriously?

      He is Trump’s chief of staff. I think his appointment is quite recent.

      • biscuit barrel

        Breitbart CEO. But they were Trumps biggest supporter anyway. Its really a tiny US media group

        • Boondecker

          They are a syndicated news and opinion website providing continuously updated headlines to top news and analysis sources who are doing reasonably well for a “tiny” group.

          To quote; “Breitbart News smashed company traffic records in July, generating 192 million page views, 31 million unique visitors, and 89 million sessions. Last month’s metrics pushed the conservative news giant to over one billion page views so far in 2016–a 28% jump in 30 days from last month’sprevious record high.”

          Safe to say also they are climbing the ranks – latest ranking is #649 of websites worldwide (Facebook being No.1) and #132 in the US.

          [edit: clarified stats re FB]

          • biscuit barrel

            A facebook news site ?
            The US has population 75x larger than NZ.
            So the Fox news highest rating show O’Reilly at 8PM gets 3.475 mill viewers
            Dividing that by 75 gives just under 50k
            Even John Campbell at his worst did better than that, say 5x
            These are very narrow interest shows
            The NY Times has more facebook page views than Breitbart, and the most popular pages were …cooking and the most popular politics pages were about Indian Politics.
            Breitbart Politics might be much the same

          • Boondecker

            Not sure what your point is, it was unclear. I will inquire if you have you ever been to the Breitbart website – or not, ie. would the content likely be too confronting for you to cope? If you do think you can manage it, I highly recommend it. I find it highly entertaining and informative. It gives a good balance to the constant left wing pro-Hillary anti-Trump bias of the mainstream media.

            In particular, you should try to look up the articles by their Tech Editor, Milo Yiannopoulos, as those were the ones your beloved Hillary mentioned the other day as examples of being offensive and part of hateful “alt-right’ conspiracy theory to bring her down. Like I stated, it’s highly entertaining.

  • Superman

    Decoding Trump: Dead in the water? This is one of the headlines on Radio NZ News today. Again showing left wing bias. Why not “Decoding Trump: Where does he stand?” This election is going to be very very interesting. The polls show Trump closing on Clinton but as we’ve seen so many times polls really mean nothing. If Trump wins it will be in spite of his party that seems to be doing everything to undermine him and lose the election.

    • biscuit barrel

      We do know hes back tracking on his ‘build a wall’ and ‘prohibit muslims from entering US’ promises.

      • Builder

        Is that with advice from his new Breitbart campaign manager, with more poll driven focus.

    • Seriously?

      As I understand it their system is like a weighted first past the post, with each state being a win / lose and resulting in a set number of votes for the winner (regardless of the margin by which they win) that then get added up with those of the other states. There is no nation wide aggregation of individual votes.

      As a result, only a few swing states really matter. The rest are very unlikely to change past win / lose voting patterns even if the candidate was a monkey called Pete.

      Polling in those swing states matters a lot. The national polls no so much.

      I think the polls we hear about tend to be the nationwide ones. Interest only really.

  • Seriously?

    I’m no fan of Trump (nor am I a fan of Clinton’s but that is probably less of an issue for me) but it is far too early for the GOP to be giving up on him.

    Sure, they should have one eye on what happens if he doesn’t get up, but only one eye.

    Current odds:
    Clinton 1.31 (on 22/8 was 1.29)
    Trump 4.70 (on 22/8 was 4.80)

    If the punters are on the mark, he may be behind but it is very much still a race.

  • Ross

    With all due respect (as this is a politically focused/orientated site) I gave up reading “analysis” from these US commentators a long time ago – they’ve got it so wrong up until now, why should I expect them to start getting it right now? For so long we’ve been told that Trump has zero chance, but he’s the only GOP candidate left…

  • Builder

    The polls are not looking good for Tump. He needs to keep hammering away at Clinton’s weaknesses. Bad health, Corrupt Clinton Foundation, Lying about emails. I saw this pic today of Hillary needing a foot stool to get into the car. How embarrassing.

    • Jayar

      And this woman believes she has the health and stamina to be President!

      • biscuit barrel

        She is 5 foot 5 in. But a lot of places report 5’7″. The shorter one is correct

        • Boondecker

          You seem to want to defend everything related to a woman who everyone knows is unhealthily sick, corrupt, dishonest, untrustworthy and a pathological liar.

        • Doug

          Unless that vehicle is at least a foot higher than ones we see here (and it isn’t by using the security as scale), being 5’5″ is not a reason to need a stool to get into a vehicle

  • Builder

    There’s something not right about the crowd sizes. Trump has had packed arenas, Clinton only small crowds with short events, the last one I saw was with her speaking only 30 minutes. I can’t see how the polls are so bad for Trump considering his popularity and crowd sizes.

    • Ross

      I can’t begin to imagine what those people paid Hillary to be there!

      • Fish Oil

        yeh trust the polls about as much mainstream media, in other words not at all!

  • Plantagenet

    The selfish sore losers in the GOP are basically handing the election to Crooked Hillary by not supporting Trump. Extraordinary considering that there is one vacancy on the Supreme Court and could be more given the ages of a couple of the judges. Once the court becomes fully liberal, as it will under Mrs Clinton, then the second amendment will be history. That’s what the GOP is throwing away, seemingly quite gladly. It just proves that, for the political establishment, only adherence to globalism matters now.

  • Herbert Charles

    “Donald Trump’s supporters are already angry and rife with paranoid, conspiracy theories.”
    Will be nothing compared to the Hillary Cinton supporters fanned on by entire mainstream media if they lose…the howling and tears will be ledgendary…i better stock up on the popcorn.