There are some lovely stories to spin in those numbers, depending on which viewpoint you use.
- National have taken a hit over their lack of progress in housing
- National + NZ First can rule. Oopsie.
- 200% increase in support for the Maori Party since they announced their Mana plans
- Simon Bridges’ blue/green Pizza Drone stunt shifts support to the Greens
Oddly enough, the current poll is about right when it comes to National and Labour. The Greens always drop at election time, and NZ First tends to surge a bit.
Even if the Maori Party can bring in all the Maori seats, National plus NZ First plus ACT will make a government. It will be up to the Maori party to decide to continue their “better be at the table” approach, even after hugging Hone Harawira who prefers to be a spanner rather than the oil.
As readers of INCITE:Politics know (next issue due out soon – waiting for latest polling), there is no Route to Victory for Labour. Sure, the percentages all add up if you grab enough parties and put them together, but the bottom line is that too few will vote for a coalition government that will have Andrew Little as its Prime Minister.
There is a difference between asking “who would you vote for if an election was held today” and standing in a booth with marker and making the actual decision. Unless something big happens, NZ First looks to be the third largest party after the 2017 election.
Anyway, enjoy all the stories today of various factions explaining their perceived wins, or the reasons the opponents experienced losses.
Oh come on… not another Labour Right Winger!?