Roy Morgan: A masterclass in how to not run a polling company

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There are some lovely stories to spin in those numbers, depending on which viewpoint you use.

  1. National have taken a hit over their lack of progress in housing
  2. National + NZ First can rule.  Oopsie.
  3. 200% increase in support for the Maori Party since they announced their Mana plans
  4. Simon Bridges’ blue/green Pizza Drone stunt shifts support to the Greens

Oddly enough, the current poll is about right when it comes to National and Labour.  The Greens always drop at election time, and NZ First tends to surge a bit.

Even if the Maori Party can bring in all the Maori seats, National plus NZ First plus ACT will make a government.  It will be up to the Maori party to decide to continue their “better be at the table” approach, even after hugging Hone Harawira who prefers to be a spanner rather than the oil.

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As readers of INCITE:Politics know (next issue due out soon – waiting for latest polling), there is no Route to Victory for Labour.  Sure, the percentages all add up if you grab enough parties and put them together, but the bottom line is that too few will vote for a coalition government that will have Andrew Little as its Prime Minister.

There is a difference between asking “who would you vote for if an election was held today” and standing in a booth with marker and making the actual decision.  Unless something big happens, NZ First looks to be the third largest party after the 2017 election.

Anyway, enjoy all the stories today of various factions explaining their perceived wins, or the reasons the opponents experienced losses.

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Oh come on… not another Labour Right Winger!?

  • Sally

    Over at a left wing blog they are drunk after an all night party celebrating toppling Key. They have the numbers if they include the Greens and Winston.
    They just don’t get it is exactly the same as 2014, they are not going anywhere if they remain under 30%. How can it be a win if half of the cabinet is made up of minor parties? Delusional is just not a stronger enough word.

  • Sailor Sam

    What this poll and all the others show is that ACT under David Seymour is a wasted space.
    He came into parliament showing a lot of promise, but he has been a total disappointment, he is not showing any potential ACT supporter that there is a way forward.
    That ACT in parliament cannot muster more than the trainwreck that is the Conservative party says all there is to say.
    Consequently I believe that National should cut him loose and run a decent candidate in Epsom, to get rid of him completely.
    And if that upsets the few ACT voters left, tough.
    I could be an ACT voter, but David Seymour does not cut the mustard in my opinion.
    Sadly that leaves me with NZFirst.
    And a little party on 25% is music to my ears.

    • MaryLou

      Unfortunately I’m about there too. It’s such a shame. They were my big hope with giving National enough wiggle room to grow a pair. Winston is about as reliable as Dunne though. We are in a tight spot!

    • Steve kay

      Agreed. What happened? He was stunning post election, then nothing. I even joined the party. No engagement at all, I was contacted by two people within the organisation with promises of future meetings/strategies etc…….. Nothing since.

      • ex-JAFA

        What part of the country are you in? There are a number of functions in various places which are promoted to members, so you may want to check with your local board member that they’re doing their part. (I’m “involved” with organising and promoting some such events.)

        • Steve kay

          Just the wee village of Queenstown. Like I said, I was contacted promptly when I joined, was assured a meeting at some point, that was months/years ago.

          • ex-JAFA

            Hmm. A recent reorganisation of the party’s territories means that your entire island is now managed by one board member. I suggest getting in touch (see http://www.act.org.nz/contact) with Gareth and ask for more attention. He’s a top bloke, so I’m sure he’ll respond promptly and favourably. I’m afraid I’m not on the board so have no clout to help you directly.

          • Steve kay

            I’m not after attention, just making observations

          • Blokeinauckland

            Perhaps they are looking for an organiser?

    • Do you even understand how MMP works?

      Putting a National MP in Epsom and in Ohariu removes two votes…yes, yes I know on the surface it looks like it doesn’t but it really does. National still has the same numbers, just less list MPs. It now loses the bonus votes of Seymour and Dunne, handing a majority to Labour…so well done on your attempt at thinking…but you failed. Replacing independent MPs with National MPs hurts not helps the government.

      • Sailor Sam

        Then National needs to put some fire in Seymour’s belly so that there is a way forward.
        That is my frustration, I would like to vote ACT, but there is nobody/nothing to vote for.
        And I am as aware as everybody else that a vote for NZFirst is very difficult for those of us on the right side of politics
        Seymour has to start campaigning now.
        At the moment both National and ACT are sleepwalking towards possible electoral defeat next year.

      • GoingRight

        Well we shall continue to give both our votes to ACT. We do understand MMP!
        Edit: We live in Epsom electorate!

        • Sailor Sam

          But ACT needs to maximise and then increase its party vote outside of Epsom.
          That is wherethe problem lies.
          You like him in Epsom, but those of us outside of that electorate need to be convinced that Seymour and ACT are worth voting for.
          I have been in contact with David, all I got was a put down which told me in no uncertain terms that I was not worth debating with.
          That is no way to convince people to vote for ACT or any ACT candidate outside of Epsom

          • Blokeinauckland

            It’s simple really – if you want a centre right government just party vote Act. The next Act MP after Seymour (i.e. off the list) is way more valuable to the right than the last National list MP. The last National MP will require a party list vote of something like 48% for National. The second Act MP will need a party list vote of nearer 1 or 2 %.

            I understand Act are focussed on a strategy that gets them those List votes from across the country – laser focus than blunderbus.

    • ex-JAFA

      If you’re looking for “a way forward”, you should probably read ‘Free Press’ more carefully each week. As a reader here, you’ll know that you cannot rely on the media party to tell you what you need to hear – you have to seek the information out yourself.

      Neither Mr Seymour nor his party have anything to do with National’s campaigning, and vice versa. The good people of Epsom elected him and his predecessor with no “assistance”. It’s hardly Mr Seymour’s fault if his best-known constituent happens to be the leader of the National party; it certainly doesn’t mean that he voted for him.

  • STAG

    Those figures over the course of the year really do so very little change for anyone once they’re averaged out. Roy Morgan, the poll of inconsistencies might after all have a here too unknown long stability .

  • Boondecker

    Nothing there has me worried. If the leftie bloggers are all agog at that, it obviously doesn’t take much to satisfy them. Mediocrity and hypocrisy doesn’t win you governments. Not in new Zealand it doesn’t. And, as much as the Labour luvvies will crow about “how they have the numbers” if they include Winston’s First Party, there’s no way in the world the wily old silver fox will run with Green policy. Not at his age anyway. As for sending Matt McCarten to Auckland in a vain attempt to outflank National with a second front, good luck with that.

    The left are still toast. Have been since ages ago.

  • MarcWills

    If NZ First is the answer to National’s coalition partner, then can I ask for your suggestions as to who else (apart from Winston) from NZF would you see as a competent Cabinet Minister? When I think of it in this context, then do they really deserve to be given this responsibility. Perhaps a little more thought should be considered before giving them any encouragement with the carrot of coalition.

  • Wayne Peter McIndoe

    Really unless Labour can improve its polling by at least 10 percentage points to around 35% it can forget about trying to form the next government – impossible and not with Little at the helm

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