Jonathan Milne is usually better than this, but he is displaying a distinct lack of knowledge about how politics actually works. His is an academic, rather than a realistic view.
As a senior member of the Media party he goes on a major rant about the quality of our politicians, deciding that they are a pack of ratbags, especially Todd McClay
He’ll be gone soon – it seems likely he’ll quit the race before the voters throw him out. McClay too has a short and uncelebrated political career left ahead of him with few friends left willing to protect him in the National Party hierarchy.
There is one major problem with this analysis, and one dopey journalists often make.
They don’t look to see whether someone will keep being returned to parliament when they predict their demise.
A cursory glance at the Rotorua results from the 2014 election shows Todd McClay has a very, very handy majority of 7,418. Someone with much knowledge of what is going on in the ground in Rotorua would also know that Fletcher Tabeteau from NZ First runs in Rotorua and has done a good job for a first-termer from a minor party.
The bigger piece of news that needs to be factored into Todd McClays alleged demise is that his Labour opponent Tamati Coffey is seeking the nomination in Waiariki because he doesn’t believe he can win Rotorua. Sources inside Labour say that Tamati doesn’t think he can beat Todd, and he is concerned that the anti-National, anti-Todd vote will be split between him and Fletcher making it even more difficult for him to win Rotorua.
Of course, the other problem that Milne has with his analysis…if you could call it that…is that the hierarchy can’t do jack about Todd McClay. It is up to the electorate and as an effective and capable local MP, who hunts pigs, deer and is seen regularly at the Cossie club and RSA his selection is assured. The hierarchy couldn’t get rid of Maurice Williamson, and in McClay’s case, all John Key has done is push him into another camp. John Key’s time left as PM is now less than three years…Todd McClay will still be an MP laughing at Jonathan Milne.