Labour’s dodgy polling


Arts, Travel & Lifestyle blogger David Farrar is widely regarded as being New Zealand’s best pollster. That is why we use him for Incite polling, and why we listen when he tells us a poll is dodgy.

He is clearly saying Labour’s polling is dodgy, and has posted about it.


A rather desperate Andrew Little has released their internal polling from  to try and convince people they are really winning.

UMR is a very good company and I often refer people to them, if I can’t do the work. But I will comment on this specific poll as it is vastly different to every other poll published.  

They have National at 40%. National has not polled 40% in any public poll since 2006.

Like Farrar we do not think this poll passes the sniff test. However, we respect raw data and will happily admit it is wrong if the Labour Party actually release the questions used in the survey, and the raw data along with the methodology used, which is accepted practice from serious polling companies overseas.

We just want to know if UMR has hired Colin Craig’s old pollster who said 53% of Rodney were going to vote for Craig when he ended up losing by 12,222 votes.



  • Sally

    Like all polls it the qualify question that determines the slant of the poll. Also a lot depends how random the phone numbers that are called, time and day.

  • Isherman

    Andrew Little said “I have seen other polls recently, taken at roughly the same time that tell a completely different story”
    “Polls”, as in plural, so lets see those ones too then Andrew, surely if they exist and tell a completely different story there would be no reason to hide them.

  • Rebecca

    I’m reminded of the early Windows Phone days when Microsoft spent hundreds of millions of dollars to simulate momentum against the Apple and Android juggernaut.

    The Microsoft good news stories and polls were full of sensation. Commentators quoted figures and benefits promising a WinPhone revolution that would offer better choices for sophisticated consumers ready for change.

    I hoped it was real, because cozy incumbents quickly become complacent and take punters for granted. Certainly MS as a serious contender would have benefited consumers as 2 Degrees once did against the cozy duopoly of Telecom and Vodafone.

    Unfortunately the simulated momentum turned out to be a crock. Even before the hundreds of millions stopped flowing, Android just crunched over the top of Winphone.

    Seems to me that if you add Nokia and Blackberry to the Android, iOS and Winphone mix, there’s a good parallel to the NZ political situation. E.g.: the once great Nokia underwent an exciting merger with Winphone that practically destroyed Nokia, Blackberry all but disappeared and the cozy incumbents seemed to sail on no matter what.

  • Kevin

    What Labour is basically saying is that the UMR poll is correct and all the others are wrong. Yes Andrew, it’s all a big conspiracy to make Labour look like it’s doing worse than it is. All the polling companies are just shills for the government, apart, of course, from UMR.

    That is until UMR goes over their polling methods and gets their results in line with the other polling companies. But let’s not go there. At least not yet.

  • Davo42

    Oh Andy, did no one ever read you the Emperor’s New Clothes when you were a kid?

  • Boondecker

    So even after all the fuss of irrelevant, dodgy, rogue and incorrect polls, Labour are still miles behind National even on their own poll. That I would suggest should be their biggest concern and what they need to do to fix it – instead of insisting on tying in the Greens as their required crutch to power – because we all know that will never be a happy marriage whilst in government.

    They simply won’t face up the to the elephants roaming around in the room.

  • cows4me

    Poor old Andy he needs to drop an envelope of cash into Farrar’s hot little hand, to find the right answer, oh that’s right he’s flat broke, oh dear how sad.

  • Ceebee

    Labour don’t believe this poll.

    If they did, they would be disowning the Greens and attempting to close the gap to National (only 9% !) on their own.

    Even if they closed most of the gap it would then give them the option of partnering with either the Greens or NZ First post-election to form a Government.

  • Keanne Lawrence

    Does agree with the part that said he got a lift in the PM preference stakes? If he did he might be one of the few who believe that part. Lol

  • Blueburd

    Annette King was questioning Farrar as a credible polster on Hosking this morning. She is adamant their polling is correct and every other poll has got it wrong.

    Stupid is as Stupid does