Middle ground in swing electorates

Earlier today I commented that the left-wing are missing in action in seats that are considered the middle ground.

We are looking for some middle ground areas in the electorates that are called middle NZ, and need some help from readers to tell us where they think they might be.

To make things a little easier we want to start with the electorates that National has won from Labour in either 2005 and 2008, and are genuinely swing electorates, not anomalies like Auckland Central or Christchurch Central. Seats like Taupo, where boundary changes have resulted in massive National majorities, have also been discounted.

The seats we are looking at are:  

Northcote

Maungakiekie

Hamilton East

Hamilton West

Rotorua

New Plymouth

Napier

Tukituki

Whanganui

Wairarapa

Rangitata

Invercargill

The middle ground in the electorate will be the areas where the schools used to be known as mid-decile, there are plenty of self-employed small business owners but fewer professionals and fewer unemployed. They are all the places where terms like precariat and neo-liberal would likely see you glassed if you used them at the pub where locals might think those words mean you called them a big gay pansy.

Obviously winning over the middle ground in swing seats isn’t the crucial part of MMP elections, but as a piece of ongoing work we are trying to identify specific areas that National has won that were Labour areas under Clark. This will help us build a narrative about who decides our elections.

Please email the tipline or leave comments and thanks for your help.

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