Whaleoil’s Melbourne Cup Sweep

Thanks to Just Horse Racing, the form guide is below.  Pick your horse for the win, then find the horse’s name in the comments below.  REPLY to that comment, with the horse you want to pick, and leave a comment.   One entry per person, clearly!

So are you going with the best odds?  Or will you back a New Zealand horse, owner or jockey?

1. Big Orange (7)

(GB)
J: JAMIE SPENCER
T: MICHAEL BELL
W: 57KG
PREDICTION: 8TH
Odds: $14
COMMENT: Comes in with good form winning 2 x G2’s in England. Stuck on very well in Melb Cup last year finishing 5th. Will make own luck out in front and stable are confident. Concern is there looks to be good pace in the race but he is a big winning chance. Good e/w bet.

2. Our Ivanhowe (6)

(GER)
J: DWAYNE DUNN
T: LEE & ANTHONY FREEDMAN
W: 57KG
PREDICTION: 4TH
Odds: $51
COMMENT: Has gone through his gears nicely leading into race. Big run in the Caulf Cup last start suggesting 3200m will be perfect dist. Unlucky runner in Melb Cup last year and has similar conditions this year. Will get a good run from barrier. Big chance. Good e/w bet.

3. Curren Mirotic (18)

(JPN)
J: TOMMY BERRY
T: OSAMU HIRATA
W: 56.5KG
PREDICTION: 22ND
Odds: $41
COMMENT: Comes into the race out of form and 9YO so improvement is unlikely. The only plus is he will make his own luck on speed and Japanese horses have always gone well in our big races but his track work/form says he can’t win. Others better.

4. Bondi Beach (5)

(IRE)
J: RYAN MOORE
T: AIDAN O’BRIEN
W: 56KG
PREDICTION: 5TH
Odds: $10
COMMENT: Lightly raced consistent stayer with plenty of upside. Comes into race on the back of two good runs in Irish G3’s with the step up to 3200m to suit. Luckless in last years Melb Cup where he hit the line well when he got room. Looks a big chance.

5. Exospheric (13)

(GB)
J: DAMIEN OLIVER
T: LEE & ANTHONY FREEDMAN
W: 56KG
PREDICTION: 11TH
Odds: $20
COMMENT: Ran a good third in Caulf Cup last start where he stuck on okay. Based on Caulf Cup run the 3200m looks a concern and other Internationals come in with better form. Others look better.

6. Hartnell (12)

(GB)
J: JAMES MCDONALD
T: JOHN O’SHEA
W: 56KG
PREDICTION: 6TH
Odds: $5.00
COMMENT: Devastating win in the G1 Turnbull before a distant 2nd to Winx in Cox Plate. Deserving favourite based on Turnbull win and has a lot of class but the 3200m is a query after finishing 15th in Melb Cup last year, he was unlucky but he didn’t hit the line with too much authority when he got room. Big chance but better value elsewhere?

7. Who Shot Thebarman (20)

(NZ)
J: HUGH BOWMAN
T: CHRIS WALLER
W: 56KG
PREDICTION: 15TH
Odds: $31
COMMENT: Looked the winner in the MV Cup before being run down late. Ticking along nicely and is proven over 3200m. 4th in Melb Cup last year so has to be respected. Place chance. Worth an e/w bet.

8. Wicklow Brave (24)

(GB)
J: FRANKIE DETTORI
T: WILLIAM MULLINS
W: 56KG
PREDICTION: 9TH
Odds: $16
COMMENT: Last start G1 Irish St Leger winner who has won 6 times over 3200m. Strong stayer who will run a big race but will need some luck from outside barrier. Proven over the trip and will give a good site. Opposing trainers have marked him the horse to beat. Good e/w bet.

9. Almoonqith (19)

(USA)
J: MICHAEL WALKER
T: D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG
W: 54.5KG
PREDICTION: 12TH
Odds: $23
COMMENT: Has to be respected on his Caulf Cup run when he hit the line well late. If he can get a good run from the wide barrier he has the turn of foot to win but can be a hit or miss horse. Place chance.

10. Gallante (2)

(IRE)
J: BLAKE SHINN
T: ROBERT HICKMOTT
W: 54.5KG
PREDICTION: 20TH
Odds: $51
COMMENT: Good run in the Naturalism behind Jameka two starts ago before a very disappointing run in MV Cup last start. Won this years Sydney Cup over 3200m so he gets the trip but on his last start its hard to have him. Take on trust.

11. Grand Marshal (9)

(GB)
J: BEN MELHAM
T: CHRIS WALLER
W: 54.5KG
PREDICTION: 13TH
Odds: $34
COMMENT: Didn’t look to be going too well until a good MV Cup win last start. Has won Sydney Cup over 3200m so he will stay the distance, will need rain to be a winning chance. Place chance at best otherwise. If it rains get on.
12. Jameka (3)
J: NICHOLAS HALL
T: CIARON MAHER
W: 54.5KG
PREDICTION: 7TH
Odds: $8.00
COMMENT: Impressive Caulf Cup winner. 3200m looks ideal despite breeding saying otherwise. Has had a few small set backs and her odds are on the drift but based on her Caulf Cup win she looks hard to beat. Good winning chance.

13. Heartbreak City (23)

(FR)
J: JOAO MOREIRA
T: TONY MARTIN
W: 54KG
PREDICTION: 3RD
Odds: $18
COMMENT: Huge win in the Ebor last start and before that another good win in a Galway Hurdle. Comes into the race in very good form and he will definitely get the distance. Has a good turn of foot for an out and out stayer but will need luck from barrier. Very good e/w bet.

14. Sir John Hawkwood (14)

(IRE)
J: BLAKE SPRIGGS
T: JOHN P THOMPSON
W: 54KG
PREDICTION: 21ST
Odds: $71
COMMENT: Good win in the G1 Metrop before disappointing run in Caulf Cup. Untried at the distance which is a concern and hard to have him on his last start otherwise he rates well at the big odds. Decent long shot chance.

15. Excess Knowledge (21)

(GB)
J: VLAD DURIC
T: GAI WATERHOUSE & ADRIAN BOTT
W: 53.5KG
PREDICTION: 18TH
Odds: $71
COMMENT: Ticking a long okay this prep. Looked the winner in last years Melb Cup at big odds before finishing 7th but was going better this time last year. Place chance at best.

16. Beautiful Romance (1)

(GB)
J: DAMIAN LANE
T: SAEED BIN SUROOR
W: 52.5KG
PREDICTION: 19TH
Odds: $81
COMMENT: Stuck on well in the listed Nayef Stakes in GB last start running 3rd. First up in Melb Cup and other Internationals look better but gets inside barrier so she will get an easy run but will need a lot to go her way to win. Happy to leave out.

17. Almandin (17)

(GER)
J: KERRIN MCEVOY
T: ROBERT HICKMOTT
W: 52KG
PREDICTION: 1ST
Odds: $11
COMMENT: Lightly raced stayer. Awesome/easy win last start in G3 at Flem over 2500m when eased down. Gets into the Melb Cup low in the weights and has been set for the race. With luck from barrier he looks very hard to beat. Our top pick. Very good e/w bet.

18. Assign (22)

(IRE)
J: KATELYN MALLYON
T: ROBERT HICKMOTT
W: 52KG
PREDICTION: 17TH
Odds: $61
COMMENT: Won a weak Herbert Power last start but race has been a good form line for Melb Cup’s in the past. Drawn poorly and looks to be 3rd best from stable in the race. Will need a lot to go right for him to figure. Place chance at best.

19. Grey Lion (16)

(IRE)
J: GLEN BOSS
T: MATT CUMANI
W: 52KG
PREDICTION: 14TH
Odds: $51
COMMENT: Was gallant running 2nd in Geelong Cup last start where he had the sit on winner Qewy and was out stayed. Before that he didn’t look to stay 3000m in a France G2 so distance is big query. Prefer others but a win won’t surprise.

20. Oceanographer (11)

(GB)
J: CHAD SCHOFIELD
T: CHARLIE APPLEBY
W: 52KG
PREDICTION: 2ND
Odds: $8.00
COMMENT: Scintillating win in Lexus Stakes and looks like he will relish 3200m. Godolphin did everything to get him into field which says a lot. Will be his third race in 2 weeks but if he can back up he looks very hard to to hold out in what looks to be a race with a good tempo. Huge chance.

21. Secret Number (10)

(GB)
J: STEPHEN BASTER
T: SAEED BIN SUROOR
W: 52KG
PREDICTION: 16TH
Odds: $34
COMMENT: Good win/place record in questionable form races but looks like he will get the distance. Has only raced twice in 12 months which is a concern but with light weight and a decent turn of foot he could surprise. Place chance.

22. Pentathlon (4)

(NZ)
J: MARK DU PLESSIS
T: JOHN WHEELER
W: 51.5KG
PREDICTION: 23RD
Odds: $106
COMMENT: Nothing in his form says he is good enough to win this race. Well beaten in Lexus Stakes last start where he dropped out of race. Can’t see him in the finish and odds support that.

23. Qewy (15)

(IRE)
J: CRAIG WILLIAMS
T: CHARLIE APPLEBY
W: 51.5KG
PREDICTION: 10TH
Odds: $26
COMMENT: All the way winner in Geelong Cup holding off rivals. Will run on the speed and make his own luck and has placed at every start over 3200m. Rock hard fit stayer who will take a lot of running down. Looks over the odds. Good e/w bet.

24. Rose Of Virginia (8)

(NZ)
J: BEN THOMPSON
T: LEE & SHANNON HOPE
W: 51KG
PREDICTION: 24TH
Odds: $126
COMMENT: Rank outsider of the field and deservingly so. There is nothing to suggest she can go close in this race. Can’t win.

 

Hate the ads? Click Here to subscribe to ad-free WhaleOil.
22%
×