Wednesday nightCap

No CGI at all (but does use quadcopters)

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Today’s Trivia

via dailyoxford.com

via dailyoxford.com

 

Semen may have anti-depressant properties. (source)

 

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Moody time-lapsed clouds

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Pick the alpha male (hint: it’s not the guy)

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Daily roundup

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Mr and Mrs TarnBabe67 appear to have a similar lower mandible deficit compensated for by an additional fold of under-facial tergum.

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Whaleoil Backchat

Good Evening, welcome to the daily Whaleoil Backchat.

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The essential problem with Green (and left) messages

Check this out

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How does that pass your BS detector? ¬† Not only do these people want you to believe that half of all the earth’s species have become extinct since 1970, they also use an image of a lion – an animal we all know has been extinct for some time.

Why do they do this?

Why is it that the left completely oversell their messages? ¬†It’s simply not effective. ¬†They lost an election because of it too. ¬†Nobody believed the extremes that they were selling to every day New Zealanders.

The question is:   Do they oversell on purpose, or have they started to believe their own doomsday scenarios?

Let’s say this is even true. ¬†Is it bad? ¬†It sounds bad… ¬†but is it? Read more »

The month that was the election month – how did Whaleoil do?

Hey, now the elections are over, thanks for sticking around. ¬†Not surprisingly, September 2014 was a good ¬†month. ¬†Let’s tear into it.

ddasd

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Four terms or Five?

David Farrar didn’t believe that National could entertain winning four terms, but the scale of the defeat of the left has forced him to re-evaluate this thinking.

I had even mentally drafted a blog post intended for the day after the election, in case of a National victory, in which somewhat somberly I would have stated that while it is great National got a third term, MPs should realise that this is probably their last term in Government. The post would have been about how they need to secure the policy gains of the last six years, so as many of them as possible can’t be reversed, and also how if they can go into opposition with a relatively solid vote, then maybe there will be just two terms in opposition.

The nature of the election result has changed that. A fourth, or even a fifth term, is now a very credible possibility. I’m not saying a probability, but definitely a credible possibility. Here’s why:

  1. National’s 48% is the sort of result you get in your first term, not your last term
  2. The left vote totalled just 36%, and they need to grow this by 12% if they want to be able to govern, without being dependent on what Winston may decide
  3. The Conservatives could well make 5% in 2017, giving National an extra buffer
  4. John Key is now very likely to contest the 2017 election. Previously I would have said it was 60/40 at best.
  5. Labour’s leadership battle is turning off the public, and may leave the party divided and wrecked

I thought like Farrar.

If National won it was likely to be a narrow victory, with few partners and ¬†the left on the rise I though John Key would jack it in and go out as a winning PM rather than risk being turfed out. Now I am certain that the next election is a certain victory for National, perhaps with some support partners. John Key will now look to best Keith Holyoake’s record and win a fourth term and cement his place in history. Holyoake¬†served just under 12 years as PM therefore the winning of a fourth term means that John Key would easily pass that record. Key is now fast approaching the records of Helen Clark (8¬†years, 350¬†days ),Edward Stafford (8 years, 326 days), Robert Muldoon (8¬†years, 227¬†days ), Sid Holland (7¬†years, 281¬†days), Joseph Ward (7 years, 38 days), and Jim Bolger (7¬†years, 36¬†days), which will all fall this term.¬† Read more »