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1. Christ, what a shellacking. Click around Harkanwal Singhâs Herald interactive. In electorate after electorate, polling place after polling place, National won at least a plurality of the votes. Even where voters collectively chose to return their Labour MPs to Parliament, they generally gave their party votes to National. Labour won the party vote inÂ only five general electorates. I donât think itâs viable for Cunliffe to stay on after this.
No it isn’t. Cunliffe must go and go now….he lost his own party vote in New Lynn FFS!
3. The election was not primarily about policy. Although it will understandably be regarded as a mandate for Nationalâs policies, I donât think this has been an election about policy, but about who the voters have seen as fit to govern. Where discrete policies have been tested in polls, the public has often-as-not favoured Labourâs over Nationalâs. They just didnât back Labour to enact them. Iâm very concerned now over what happens in education, where I think the degree of the mess National has already made (National Standards is objectively a shambles) is not widely appreciated.
On election night and the day after Labour’s worst election result in more than 80 years David Cunliffe claimed that Labour has no money.
He was using that as an excuse for the loss.
What Cunliffe forgot is that the people most responsible for fundraising are firstly the leader. If people don’t like you then raising money is doubly hard. As we have seen 75% of the voting population decided to cast their votes elsewhere and that is due in a large part to the unlikeability of David Cunliffe.
Secondly the President and General Secretary are also responsible. My Labour sources, both inside Fraser House and in the wider party tell me that fundraising efforts were vetoed or blocked by Tim Barnett and/or Moira Coatsworth. At the same time they refused to fundraise themselves, thinking it was beneath them.
David Cunliffe has been dead set useless as Labour leader. He has managed to tank Labourâs vote to an undeniably bad level.
One of the worst parts of Cunliffe’s leadership, just as it was with Phil Goff and David Shearerâs leadership, is their inability to raise money.
This election was billed as the social media election by Â many pundits, and some political parties.
The Internet party in particular banked their success on social media.
Kim Dotcom and his little band of failures including Callum Valentine, a supposed social media genius, all told us that their much vaunted apps would secure them victory.
They also told us that their masses of Facebook likes and Twitter followers were going to get them over the line.
They were wrong.
Matthew Beveridge even had an entire blog devoted to analysing and writing about the social media election. He was wrong too.
Matthew has written a blog post about the effects of social media, where he finally cottons on to what I have been saying for a very long time.
I am a huge fan of social media. I love how it allows candidates, MPs and parties to talk directly to voters. I love how it allows people, who would never otherwise meet, to interact with each other and to learn from each other. But it has its limitations. It is very much a self selecting environment. It is incredibly easy to end up with a timeline that is nothing but an echo chamber.
For a number of people on the left, and even some parties on the left. I have a feel this is what has happened. They have seen all the talk about how it is time to change the government. About how the media is biased. How about dirty politics will resonate with the electorate. As well as about many other issues. But they forget that social media in general, and Twitter in particular, are not accurate representations of the rest of the electorate. I blogged earlier about how when dirty politics was being talked about on Twitter, it wasnât really connecting with the electorate. The articles that were being read on TVNZ, Herald and Stuff were not the ones about dirty politics. They were about the every day things that mattered to, or interested, average voters.
David Cunliffe thinks he can orchestrate the process to initiate a leadership ballot and primary race.
He is wrong.
For someone who has a lawyer for a missus it is somewhat strange that he has taken a postured approach to saving his doomed leadership.
Labourâs leadership is governed by an appendix in the constitution. This is the relevant section.
Election of the Leader of the Parliamentary Labour Party â the Leader must be a Member of Parliament; an election for the position of Leader is triggered if there is a vacancy, or if requested by aÂ simple majority of Caucus (at any time), or if the Leader fails to obtain the support of 60% plus 1 of theÂ Caucus membership in a vote held within three months after a General Election.
What this means is Cunliffe has noÂ choiceÂ but to put the leadership up for a contest unless he can get 60%+1 to vote for him. That vote will be taken when caucus says it will be taken and not on the timetable of a losing leader. Â Read more »
So here are the numbers in Napier.
|McVicar – Margin||3402|
|Half of above||1701|
|Total Walford needed to win||5434|
Kelvin Davis understand politics. Â No sympathy.
New Te Tai Tokerau MP Kelvin Davis has dubbed Internet-Mana âall steam and no hangiâ after it failed to deliver on the hype on election day.
Leader Hone Harawira was ousted and Internet-Mana polled just 1.26 per cent, in spite of internet entrepreneur Kim Dotcomâs hefty financial backing, last weekâs Moment of Truth and a highly publicised national road show to try and drum up support.
âThere was a lot of promises, a lot of hope and excitement but it was all steam and no hangi,â Davis said of Internet-Mana.
It was a case of fourth time lucky for Davis who reversed Harawiraâs 2011 majority of more than 1100 votes.
Watching the votes come in had been an emotional experience, he said.
âI was ready to go home at about 7.30, he was 300 [votes] ahead of me and I thought âOh shit here we go againââŠ and then someone said youâre down to 290 and you go âOh okay, it mustâve been the local town I live inâs booth coming inâ and then the next one was down to 260 or something and then it just started dropping and everyone got bloody excited.
ââ Then they said âKelvin, youâre aheadâ and then the gap kept going for me.
âIt was good to watch I have to say. It was exciting.â
At WO HQ we were watching the TTT result real time and graphing it as we went. Â All the early votesÂ went to Hone. Â Al the votes from the 20th went to Kelvin. Â Â Read more »
Martin Martyn has been eating humble pie on his Union funded blog.
Like the men in the above photo I would like to assist him with his meal so will share some of the highlights of his snack with you all.
I was wrong, horribly, horribly, horribly wrong.
Sue Bradford was right, Josie Pagani was right, and god damn it- the mainstream media were right.
Cameron Slater manages to come out as a winner in all this.
I will step back from blogging for a couple of weeks to reflect on things.