Matthew Hooton explores the possibility that the Mt Roskill by-election will determine the fate of Andrew Little.
Both Labour and National are downplaying their chances in Mt Roskill.
National claims that no government has ever won a byelection from an opposition in New Zealand’s history. Labour reminds pundits Mt Roskill has been won by National before, when Gilbert Myles took it from Phil Goff in 1990. They also point out National’s party vote in 2014 was 14,275, just 1090 behind Labour-Green’s 15,365. They then assert that if all the 1240 people who backed Colin Craig’s Conservative Party in 2014 vote National in the byelection, Dr Parmar will win.
You can’t argue with the maths but Labour may be overestimating the willingness of Mr Craig’s supporters to back John Key, the godless money trader who conspired with Helen Clark and Sue Bradford to stop them smacking their kids, and who also was responsible for marriage equality for gay couples.