The Letter analyses the numbers for a Labour rout

Empty Parliament larger

Of course ACT are all cock-a-hoop about the official announcement that the dirty deal in Epsom remains in place, but of more interest is their analysis what the poll numbers mean and what is actually going to happen.

Because of the way MMP works Labour is facing losing all its list MPs while still wining back some constituency seats.

As much of the electorate does not understand MMP the Labour and National poll vote is overstated by about 5%.¬† But in the marginal seats where the electorate realises there is a real contest the Labour and National vote increases. ¬† ¬†¬† Read more »

A good point. I wonder what Air New Zealand really thinks

A reader emails:

Hi Cameron,

Should a company with a majority shareholding by the NZ Government be used as an election campaign ramp by a minor party, with or without Air New Zealand’s permission?

I would have thought Air new Zealand would want to remain impartial when it comes to elections?


Read more »

A reader emails about Climate Change

I received this polite email about climate change yesterday.

Hi Cameron,

I have been a regular reader of your blog for a number of years, and while your attitude can be at times combative, I appreciate the straight-up, “no bullshit” approach you take to both your content and your readers, and your emphasis on facts over rhetoric is refreshing, particularly in an environment where many of your peers in the information industry cannot be relied on to get things right. Unfortunately, there’s one subject on which I feel you have failed to meet your own high standards. That subject is climate change.

I have no doubt that your position on climate change was based on what you believed to be legitimate information at the time you formed your current views, but I do think that it’s an area you have neglected to look at again after making up your mind, and continuing to promote this position without ensuring that it can be reconciled with the actual state of the planet is doing both yourself and your readers a disservice. Every time you publish a post along the lines of “colder than average / coldest event ever, therefore global warming is a con”, you’re ignoring the fact that climate change / global warming on a planetary scale doesn’t mean that every part of the planet is warmer 100% of the time, nor that the warming of Earth’s climate as a whole can actually cause cooling in some areas. You’re also ignoring a very large body of evidence that the planet is in fact warming considerably.

I would like to respectfully ask that you take another look at this issue, openly, and from a neutral perspective. If you still feel that the evidence supports your position after genuinely researching the topic, I will be very much surprised.

I am fully aware you are more than capable of doing your own research, and finding your own sources which you believe to be trustworthy. Noting how busy you are though, I would like to point you in the direction of one resource I feel you may find useful if you’re pressed for research time – Ramez Naam’s book “The Infinite Resource – The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet” (I am happy to purchase an ebook copy for you if that would be useful). If you do nothing else, please at least read chapter five of this book – it’ll point out more than a few holes in your current position. All conclusions drawn or facts provided are fully cited, with an extensive bibliography of sources should you wish to follow up further. I should also point out that the book’s style alternates positive / negative perspectives, so if you do not read any part of the book other than chapter five, you’re only seeing a part of what the author’s trying to get across.

I have every faith that you will act with integrity and have the courage to change your currently held beliefs on climate change once you are in possession of the relevant facts – I only ask that you are open enough to take another look.

Read more »

Sign graffiti creativity in Hutt South

There is something to be said for creativity when it comes to election sign graffiti.

As my old mate in caucus, Scott Simpson, knows the best graffiti to your election signs is often that done by your own team.

I’m picking that Trevor Mallard has been consulting Scott Simpson and this is one of their collaborations.

unnamed-1 Read more »

Hamas used ceasefire to execute 25 Gazan civilians and blame Israel

There is no limit to the depravity of Hamas, and it disgusts me that our media continues to cuddle these terrorists and they wreak self-inflicted destruction on their people.

If they aren’t putting children into¬†the¬†tunnels to die they are executing their own people and trying to blame the Israelis.

Hamas militants killed at least 25 Gazan civilians suspected of collaborating with Israel, World Net Daily reported, citing sources close to Hamas and the Islamic Jihad groups.

The sources told¬†WND that most of the extra-judicial killings of suspected collaborators took place during a brief ‚Äúhumanitarian‚ÄĚ cease-fire last Thursday. Hamas blamed the killings on Israel saying they took place four days earlier, in Shuja‚Äôiya,¬†on Gaza‚Äôs northern border with Israel.

The murdered Gazans were accused of leading Israeli troops to smuggling tunnels and providing intelligence on Hamas’ infrastructure inside Gazan cities, according to the sources.

According to WND, the sources also said ‚Äúthe civilian suspects murdered by Hamas were publicly celebrated by Hamas as martyrs killed by the Jewish state.‚Ä̬† Read more »

That’s mad, bro!

Just a fun poll.  But truly, how can you pick?

Is Colin Craig just unbelievably dense or did he think he’d get lucky?


The Electoral Commission has rejected the Conservative Party logo on the grounds it could “cause confusion or mislead electors”.

The logo the party tried to register was simply the word “vote” inside a bright blue speech bubble.

In a decision released today, the commission said the logo could be confused with other instructions on the voting paper.

“The voting paper prescribed in the legislation contains instructions for voters,” the commission said in a statement.

“The word ‘vote’ is used several times in these instructions.

“The Commission concluded that the appearance of the proposed party logo on the ballot paper featuring the word ‘vote’ could be regarded as instructive and therefore be likely to confuse and mislead voters.”

Using National Party colours, it points at a box, and says “Vote” with no indication that it is actually for the Conservative Party.

You know, the party says you should vote for them and “Stand for something”.

Like a scam?  Stealing votes by subterfuge?

What on earth were they thinking?


- Stacey Kirk, Stuff

The Missing Million vs the Undecided [POLL]


Every party would like the disinterested and lethargic to vote for them. ¬†The Labour Party¬†felt the “missing million” voters were all theirs. ¬†As did the Internet Party. ¬†These were young people, disconnected from politics. ¬†They needed, an app, some hash tags and a few party parties to get them interested in … something.

Depending on which poll you read (and believe) the Internet Mana “movement” have 2-3 percent support among voters. ¬†Broken down, that’s mostly Mana party votes, and very, very few Internet party ones.

So, the Missing Million remain missing, especially at the edgy German Savior Yoof vote.   And none of them are going near David Cunliffe either.

Stuff ran this poll over the weekend ¬† Read more »

Greens moving to centre, ctd…


Earlier I wrote about the Greens joining other corporates like BP and Z Energy in their Love NZ campaign.

I suggested this was a move to the centre to hoover up some of the Labour voters who can’t bring themselves to vote for David Cunliffe.

Now more evidence has come to light, following an extraordinary comment made by Russel Norman during an Interview on Newstalk ZB early today.

I think for the first time, Russel Norman and the Greens are saying they actually support oil and gas drilling in shallow zones off our coast.


Norman – Shallow Drilling Okay "Norman - Shallow Drilling Okay". "Norman – Shallow Drilling Okay"

Russel Norman is very clear. Exploration in shallow zones is ok – they’re only worried about deep sea drilling. This is a nice bit of positioning to snaffle some of Labour’s left flank.

The Greens are looking to become the 2nd largest party in parliament.  Will be fun to watch.  I always love it when lefties fight among themselves (which is, to be honest, almost always)

Cash for access to… Tamati Coffey?


The Rotorua’s Daily Post’s ¬†Stephanie Arthur-Worsop resports:

A night of glitz and glamour at the Blue Baths reined in big bucks for a local candidate’s campaign fundraiser.

Rotorua Labour Candidate Tamati Coffey held his Big Red Fundraiser on Saturday night and said the event was a huge success.

“It was a brilliant night and we are really rapt with the outcome. It was awesome to see the community come out in support of us.”

Mr Coffey said the event was sold out and although they hadn’t done the final calculations, he said the night had raised more than $12,000. “It was pretty awesome to have so much support. That money is full profit and will go straight into funding the campaign.”

So when National do this, it is called Cash for Access, and when Labour do it… it is called? ¬† Read more »