Technology

If only media had used real big data for the US Elections

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The chart above was highlighted to me by a friend (who is brilliant at statistics) two days ahead of the election. She (and her husband) have been saying for months Donald Trump would win.

But, everyone (including me) ignored really big data, instead preferring to focus on single polls, and the data expertise of Nate Silver. My gut feel told me it was harder to pick than a broken nose, but these two were adamant, Trump was going to win. BTW they are the same two who in 2014 on election night called the election 3 hours before media did…no one will know that except the WO team, but they did.

Now, Nate Silver does use big data, but his data is just the polls all across the country, plus some demographic information and his proprietary algorithms and assumptions. It is all well and good, but when it fails people start questioning polls, so-called big data and ignoring data sets that are right in front of you. Instead of the wisdom of thousands of polls and dozens of pollsters, you are using the wisdom of search engines and millions upon millions of searches.   Read more »

Can a Desert Nation Solve the World’s Water Shortage?

I think Google needs to change their motto

Google’s motto used to be “Don’t be evil“.

Except it turns out that are, well their CEO is, and politically motivated.

Eric Schmidt, executive chairman of Google’s parent company Alphabet, wanted to be “head outside advisor” to the Hillary Clinton campaign, according to Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta in an email released by WikiLeaks.

WikiLeaks has continued to reveal Schmidt’s cozy relationship with the Clinton campaign. In a previously leaked email, a memo showed that Schmidt was working directly with the Clinton campaign on setting up various backend features to their website.

In an April 2014 email from Podesta to Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook discussing the launch of Hillary’s campaign, Podesta describes how much Schmidt wants to work with the campaign.

“I met with Eric Schmidt tonight. As David reported, he’s ready to fund, advise recruit talent, etc. He was more deferential on structure than I expected. Wasn’t pushing to run through one of his existing firms. Clearly wants to be head outside advisor, but didn’t seem like he wanted to push others out,” Podesta wrote. He added, “Clearly wants to get going. He’s still in DC tomorrow and would like to meet with you if you are in DC in the afternoon. I think it’s worth doing. You around? If you are, and want to meet with him, maybe the four of us can get on the phone iN the am.”

Cheryl Mills was copied on the email and let Podesta know that Mook wouldn’t be able to make the call that day because he was in Australia. Mook said that she was correct but would love to talk to Schmidt eventually.   Read more »

Desperate Twitter tries to imitate Gab

 

screenshot-whaleoil.co.nz

screenshot-whaleoil.co.nz

As most of you already know I am on Gab now as @spanishbride and I only visit twitter to encourage others to jump ship as I have. Gab seems to have timed its entrance into the world of social media brilliantly.Twitter is failing and no one wants to buy it while Gab is growing rapidly. Twitter in a last ditch attempt to save its failing brand is attempting to copy the success of Gab by investigating the feature that sets Gab apart from all other social media. The ability to self-censor.

Dallas, Texas Today at Gab AI Inc, a people first pro-free speech social network, we were particularly amused to discover that our competitor at Twitter is tinkering around with the concept of user-controlled self-censorship — a tool that has been the staple of our platform, since its inception from the beginning of August.

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Julian Assange reckons Hillary will be arrested with his next email dump

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Julian Assange says that Hillary Clinton will be arrested as a result of his next email dump.

Truth Revolt reports:

It’s been a devastating Friday for the Hillary Clinton campaign. First, the FBI re-opened the investigation into her e-mail scandal and now, Julian Assange has promised that what’s in the next batch of e-mails to be published to Wikileaks will lead to her arrest.

Since the first week of October, there have been 21 batches released totaling 35,594 e-mails. According to a message on Twitter, there are more than 50,000 remaining.

In a broadcast for Russia Today, a London reporter said, “Assange will be releasing more material in what he says will provide enough evidence to see Hillary Clinton arrested.”   Read more »

Could an Artificial Intelligence system predict the US election result?

Will Artificial Intelligence predict a Trump win correctly?

Will Artificial Intelligence predict a Trump win correctly?

Business Insider reports on an Artificial Intelligence system that is predicting that Trump will win.

The polls have consistently showed Hillary Clinton with a lead over Donald Trump in recent weeks, but an artificial intelligence system has a different prediction for the outcome of the presidential election.

The system, called MogIA, uses 20 million data points from online platforms like Google, YouTube, and Twitter to come up with its predictions, according to CNBC. MogIA correctly predicted the past three presidential elections as well as the Democratic and Republican primaries.

“While most algorithms suffer from programmers/developer’s biases, MoglA aims at learning from her environment, developing her own rules at the policy layer and develop expert systems without discarding any data,” Sanjiv Rai, the founder of Indian start-up Genic.ai who developed MogIA, told CNBC.

MogIA uses data such as engagement with tweets and videos posted to the platforms the system looks at. It found that Trump has overtaken President Barack Obama’s engagement numbers during the 2008 election by a margin of 25%.

To be fair, participation on social media networks wasn’t as robust in 2008 as it is today. And the MogIA system can’t always analyse whether a post about Trump is positive or negative, making it difficult to gauge actual support.

Still, the system has been right in the past. In other elections, the candidate with the most engagement online won.

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Polly quit Twitter and she won’t be the last

Twitter is infested with trolls, bullies and the general wankeratti. It isn’t a pleasant place to be.

Polly Gillespie has quit Twitter and she explains why:

I was on Twitter for a while before two things dawned on me: Firstly, I was sh*t at Twitter. I wasn’t vaguely funny. I completely miscalculated how things I said would be taken. I had a soft underbelly (literally and figuratively). My hashtags were lame and I was like a gormless gorilla.

Second: I was perfect troll bait. I think anyone vaguely recognisable joins the Twitter Hunger Games without realising they’ve actually registered for the blood sport. For me, my gorilla act made me perfect troll fodder.

I was the nice, chubby kid at school again. Like I really needed to relive that hell. I screwed up several times too with poor attempts at humour, misunderstood references, and by simply just breathing.

Try having an opinion that differs from that of the Social Justice Bullies. You may even get hacked because if it.

The attacks were brutal and relentless. Wow. This was social media lacrosse. I could see how you could break a collarbone or lose an eye or, at the very least, have your confidence rattled.

I wasn’t about to give up though. I was verified. I had the “blue bird” of Twitter “greatness”. I was told this was a big deal. I was “somebody-ish” in Twitter land.

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Road Maggots take note, this new bike lock makes thieves vomit

Skunk Lock: This bike lock really stinks

Skunk Lock: This bike lock really stinks

The other day Twitter erupted with a first world crisis for Russell Brown, his bike was stolen despite using a bike lock. He posted photos of his bike all over Twitter and all his pals tut-tutted, there-there’d and generally did nothing.

We are far more generous here at Whale Oil and so I’ve found a solution for the next time dear old Russell parks his expensive bike complete with pannier bags at the university.

It’s a bike lock designed to make thieves vomit.

A man approaches a bicycle, handheld electric saw at the ready. He powers it on, starts to drill, and is shot in the face with a noxious spray that makes him vomit uncontrollably. This is the dream of the inventors of SkunkLock.

“Basically we were fed up with thefts,” said Daniel Idzkowski from San Francisco, one of the inventors of SkunkLock. “The real last straw was we had a friend park his very expensive electric bike outside a Whole Foods, and then went to have lunch and chat. We went out and his bike was gone.”

Idzkowski’s friend had used two locks, each $120, whose inability to stop a thief outraged him. “I blurted out, ‘why didn’t it blow his balls off?’

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Never trust a man who pays cock tax twice to the same woman

Elon Musk pays a lot of cock tax

Elon Musk pays a lot of cock tax

Elon Musk must be really dopey, I mean really dopey. Sure he’s worth billions but he has paid cock tax twice to the same woman. On top of that, he has five kids to a previous wife.

That is a great deal of cock tax.

So, one must be wary of someone who has paid cock tax to the same woman twice and to another woman.

Another warning sign is if his business is built upon subsidies, hope, prayers and good luck.

ELON MUSK, a serial Silicon Valley entrepreneur, has become one of the most famous tycoons in America. He builds electric cars, launches rockets and installs solar panels. And he dreams bigger than almost anyone else, with plans to populate Mars and create a “hyperloop” that would allow high-speed travel along America’s west coast. But lately concerns have been raised about his finances. A plan to merge Tesla, Mr Musk’s car firm, with SolarCity, his struggling energy company, is controversial on Wall Street. Jim Chanos, a hedge-fund manager who helped rumble Enron, says Mr Musk is in financial trouble. Far from conquering planets, some fear that Mr Musk has become like Icarus, who flew too close to the sun. Can his empire stand the heat?    Read more »

Social Justice Bullies kill off any hopes their weapon of choice will survive

Twitter is in a downward spiral.

Staffed by liberal elite wankers who allow hate speech and bullying to flourish and unable to monetise the platform in any meaningful way, the company is faltering. Its stock price is tanking and users seeking a better experience are abandoning the platform.

The weapon of choice for modern day social justice bullies is on the brink.

One company that was thinking of investing in Twitter has now run a mile once they started looking at the bullying culture.

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff finally killed all rumours of a potential Twitter acquisition on Friday when he told the Financial Times that it’s “not the right fit” for his company.

Benioff said a lot of things, like that Twitter’s price, and work culture, contributed to his decision to walk away from a deal. Part of it also likely had to do with the pressure from investors, as Salesforce stock plummeted after it was reported to be interested in buying Twitter.

But according to CNBC’s “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer, Salesforce was turned off by a more fundamental problem that’s been hurting Twitter for years: trolls.   Read more »