The essential problem with Green (and left) messages

Check this out

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How does that pass your BS detector? ¬† Not only do these people want you to believe that half of all the earth’s species have become extinct since 1970, they also use an image of a lion – an animal we all know has been extinct for some time.

Why do they do this?

Why is it that the left completely oversell their messages? ¬†It’s simply not effective. ¬†They lost an election because of it too. ¬†Nobody believed the extremes that they were selling to every day New Zealanders.

The question is:   Do they oversell on purpose, or have they started to believe their own doomsday scenarios?

Let’s say this is even true. ¬†Is it bad? ¬†It sounds bad… ¬†but is it? Read more »

The month that was the election month – how did Whaleoil do?

Hey, now the elections are over, thanks for sticking around. ¬†Not surprisingly, September 2014 was a good ¬†month. ¬†Let’s tear into it.

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Four terms or Five?

David Farrar didn’t believe that National could entertain winning four terms, but the scale of the defeat of the left has forced him to re-evaluate this thinking.

I had even mentally drafted a blog post intended for the day after the election, in case of a National victory, in which somewhat somberly I would have stated that while it is great National got a third term, MPs should realise that this is probably their last term in Government. The post would have been about how they need to secure the policy gains of the last six years, so as many of them as possible can’t be reversed, and also how if they can go into opposition with a relatively solid vote, then maybe there will be just two terms in opposition.

The nature of the election result has changed that. A fourth, or even a fifth term, is now a very credible possibility. I’m not saying a probability, but definitely a credible possibility. Here’s why:

  1. National’s 48% is the sort of result you get in your first term, not your last term
  2. The left vote totalled just 36%, and they need to grow this by 12% if they want to be able to govern, without being dependent on what Winston may decide
  3. The Conservatives could well make 5% in 2017, giving National an extra buffer
  4. John Key is now very likely to contest the 2017 election. Previously I would have said it was 60/40 at best.
  5. Labour’s leadership battle is turning off the public, and may leave the party divided and wrecked

I thought like Farrar.

If National won it was likely to be a narrow victory, with few partners and ¬†the left on the rise I though John Key would jack it in and go out as a winning PM rather than risk being turfed out. Now I am certain that the next election is a certain victory for National, perhaps with some support partners. John Key will now look to best Keith Holyoake’s record and win a fourth term and cement his place in history. Holyoake¬†served just under 12 years as PM therefore the winning of a fourth term means that John Key would easily pass that record. Key is now fast approaching the records of Helen Clark (8¬†years, 350¬†days ),Edward Stafford (8 years, 326 days), Robert Muldoon (8¬†years, 227¬†days ), Sid Holland (7¬†years, 281¬†days), Joseph Ward (7 years, 38 days), and Jim Bolger (7¬†years, 36¬†days), which will all fall this term.¬† Read more »

Labour’s issues, comparing rebuilds, 2002 vs 2014

Liam Hehir writes at the Manawatu Standard about the pressing issues facing Labour¬†as they seek to attempt to rebuild after Cunliffe’s disastrous campaign.

And, of course, there was National’s 2002 catastrophe. It is hard to believe that the party now straddling the political centre like the Colossus of Rhodes received just 20.93 per cent of the vote that year. How has it managed to claw back its status as the natural party of government?

First, National eliminated its competition on the Right. Under Don Brash, National gobbled up almost the whole conservative vote, reducing ACT and UnitedFuture to the lifeless husks they are today. NZ First also barely survived this process as about half of its traditionalist voters defected back to National.

While that restored National’s formidability, the 2005 election proved that it wasn’t quite enough to carve out a workable majority. It then fell to the pragmatic and non-ideological John Key to seize back the centre ground. His ability to do this – bringing both conservative and centrist voters with him – has proved essential to his success as a popular leader.

At the same time, National relentlessly modernised and adapted on an organisational level. Party headquarters provides constant information and co-ordination to candidates and exercises effective quality control over campaigns. No National candidate would have been permitted to neglect the party vote as Labour candidates have in the past two elections.

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Meme/Caption/Photoshop contest

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You know what to do Рjust stick within the moderation and commenting standards please.  Make your own here and share the results in comments.

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We need a name for Labour’s leadership debacle

I was thinking that we need a name for Labour’s leadership debacle.

The media would come up with something really lame and probably stick a -gate on the end of it.

I think my readers are smarter than the media so it is over to you to come up with some descriptors.

I was initially thinking of c*ntastrophe  РA completely avoidable and utterly F*CKED situation caused by a certifiable Bitch or C*nt.

But that is perhaps a little harsh, even though it is highly accurate.

Are there any others you can think of?

Put your suggestions in the comments, please use * where necessary…there will be light moderation to save what remains of Pete’s hair and the other mods.

Here are a couple more:

Clusterliffe – term for an operation in which multiple things have gone wrong. Related to “SNAFU” (Situation Normal, All F*cked Up”) and “FUBAR” (F*cked Up Beyond All Repair). ¬† Read more »

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Mental Health Break

Herald editor wants New Zealand to be ready to go to war

If ground forces can rid Iraq of the murderers known as Isis, New Zealand should be there. This country ought to be counted among the nations that are willing to act when the cause is just and military force can be effective.

Few would argue that rescuing Iraqis from Isis is not a just cause, the debate will be about whether foreign intervention can do so. It is a debate New Zealand should resolve sooner rather than later.

All the signs suggest this country is about to be asked to contribute special forces to an international effort once the final election result allows the Government to be sworn in.

The Prime Minister sounds reluctant to commit soldiers, as he should be. He says he will not rule out sending them if asked “but it would be my least preferred option”. It is everyone’s least preferred option.

Not sure if the Herald editor is being intentionally dense, but Key is walking a fine line here. ¬†He has two major¬†problems. ¬† Read more »

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Map of the Day

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Life expectancy in Europe and the US

Click for a larger version

Labour face Clayton’s leadership choice

Claire Trevett is onto it.  The Labour leadership race is between two unpalatable candidates

Some MPs are casting about for an Option C in Labour’s leadership contest because of concerns about David Cunliffe and Grant Robertson – but there is little consensus on who that could be.

Mr Cunliffe formally resigned as leader yesterday, triggering a leadership contest which is expected to be held in November.

So far only Mr Cunliffe and Mr Robertson have put their hands up for the job – but a number of MPs have reservations about both and are talking about whether a third person should contest it.

Former leader David Shearer returned from New York yesterday and is expected to make a decision soon about whether he will seek the leadership.

But many in caucus are concerned about his ability to perform on camera.

Other names mentioned included Andrew Little and David Parker.

Labour should stop trying to run before it can walk. ¬†It needs to elect a leader that can manage the party through the current crisis, and who will then willingly step down for a leader that is going to resonate with the voters. ¬† Robertson and Cunliffe are neither crisis managers nor are they vote winners. ¬† They need “Option C” ¬† Read more »