Chris Trotter has called the election all but over.
UNLESS SOMETHING HUGELY DRAMATIC HAPPENSÂ between now and polling day, 20 September, the General Election of 2014 is all but over. The National-led government of Prime Minister, John Key, looks set to be returned for a third term by a margin that may surprise many of those currently insisting that the result will be very close. What may also surprise is the sheer scale and comprehensiveness of the Leftâ€™s (especially Labourâ€™s) electoral humiliation.
By which dark paths must one travel to reach these gloomy (for the Left!) conclusions? Simply stated, one has only to follow the basic precepts of psephology (the study of elections and electors).
No matter whether you approach the forthcoming election from the perspective of the socio-economic context of the contest; contrasting styles of political leadership; the policies of the major players; the partiesâ€™ organisational heft and their respective financial resources; or the many factors influencing turnout; the advantage lies decisively with the National Party.
Ominous and dark are those words from Trotter. But as is usual he backs them up with salient facts and observations.
With most opinion pollsters recording three-fifths to two-thirds of voters saying the country is â€śheading in the right directionâ€ť it is clear that the run of generally positive news stories about the New Zealand economy are rebounding to Nationalâ€™s advantage. To those with secure paid employment and/or comfortable incomes, these reports offer no compelling reason for a change of government.
Yes, of course, there are 285,000 children living in poverty and 150,000 people out of work, but by and large these are the most socially marginalised and politically inert members of New Zealand society. They are consequently also the most likely to stay at home on election day. In the absence of the â€śhugely dramaticâ€ť intervention alluded to above â€“ something big enough to propel them back into the electoral process â€“ poor Kiwis simply wonâ€™t be counted.Â Read more »
Apparently the Christchurch City Council thinks more red-tape and bureaucracy will solve the housing problem in the city.
City councillors have voted unanimously to explore options for setting up a register of residential rental properties in Christchurch.
The proposed register is the idea of the Tenants Protection Association (TPA) and is part of measures that are being considered to help address the crippling shortage of rental accommodation in the city.
TPA manager Helen Gatonyi told the council’s housing committee that New Zealand was one of the few countries that did not have a register of residential rental properties.
“It has been said there is more legislation required to house pigs than there is to house people in this country. We need to register our car, our dogs, we need to register our businesses, so why is there so much resistance to registering our residential rental housing,” Gatonyi said.
In view of the housing crisis in Christchurch a rental register was critical as authorities needed to have a comprehensive understanding of the rental market so they could plan to meet the accommodation needs of the estimated 10,000 workers who would be coming into the city to assist with the rebuild.
“It is absolutely necessary for planning,” Gatonyi said. “We need to know what residential accommodation is available and where it is.”
The level of homelessness in Christchurch was a “great deal bigger than any of us want to contemplate” and a key to changing that situation was having accurate information on where the gaps were. Â Read more »
Thanks for participating in our pollÂ questions two days ago. Â Of course, these are not â€śscientificâ€ť, nor are they representative of anything except what our self-selecting group of voters decided to share, but based on that, we can draw some conclusions about the Whaleoil community.
I really didn’t expect our party vote results to be anything but a landslide for National, but it also shows the average Whaleoil reader also tends to be conservatively liberal.
1,183 people voted in the Party vote poll. Â Two said they wouldn’t vote at all, which I find fascinating because why read a political blog if you have no interest in voting?
2 people would also vote for a party “Not yet registered”. Â This could be the Internet Party, I guess.
Here are the results
- NationalÂ (76%, 898 Votes)
- ACTÂ (14%, 164 Votes)
- ConservativesÂ (5%, 54 Votes)
- LabourÂ (1%, 11 Votes)
- NZ FirstÂ (1%, 10 Votes)
- Legalise CannabisÂ (0%, 5 Votes)
- GreenÂ (0%, 4 Votes)
- United FutureÂ (0%, 2 Votes)
- MaoriÂ (0%, 1 Votes)
- Focus NZÂ (0%, 1 Votes)
- AllianceÂ (0%, 0 Votes)
- DemocratsÂ (0%, 0 Votes)
- ManaÂ (0%, 0 Votes)
About 2% (26 people) of Whaloil poll voters are still undecided. Â Not sure what that means for guests posts! Â Doesn’t look like fertile ground to turn people’s votes around. Â Read more »
I really don’t get the thinking where a government decides to make synthetic pot legal, keeps the real stuff illegal, and then lets local body government put in place rules to make it illegal again.
Waikato Times’ Harry Pearl reports
After months of pressure from residents, politicians and a campaign by the Waikato Times, the sale of legal highs has been temporarily banned at six Hamilton puff shops.
In a move hailed as a success, the Ministry of Health announced its decision to suspend the licences of the sellers last night, following the adoption of Hamilton City Council’s psychoactive substances policy late last month. Â Read more »
Thanks for all the questions. Â Some of them were really weird. Â Teach me for asking for them. Â I’ll see what Â I can do without it going off the rails. Â Some of the questions already have answers in the public domain, but obviously you don’t know the answer, so I’ve provided it again for my readers.
It’s only fair that if you’re going to ask me straight questions, I will give you straight answers. Â Don’t complain if you don’t like what you see.
Either way, hope you’ll enjoy the results!
Will you offer yourself as a parliamentary candidate (say) within the next 6 years?
What were the biggest issues you faced towards the end of your time as an Editor of a MSM? Newspaper?
Being lied to by management. Â Not having the promised funds to make the changes they agreed I should make.
How long have you been married to SB?
22 years this May
When will there be a Whale paper and a Whale TV Channel?
Why no Whale Radio? Â Whale TV and a Whale Paper won’t happen, although I am working towards expanding into the delivery of even more news. Stay tuned.
Do you think you could beat Chuck Norris at arm wrestling?
One of the skills I have is to know how to pick a fight I can win. Â And that’s not one I’d pick. Â Read more »