The Hauraki-Waikato by-election is going to cost Labour a container load of tea towels

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via Maori TV

The rumbles about Nanaia Mahuta’s impending defection appear to have taken on a more solid form over the last 24 hours.  Richard Harman at Politik has the gossip

The Maori Party says it is ready for a by-election in Hauraki-Waikato if the current Labour MP, Nanaia Mahuta resigns from Parliament early.

There was speculation in Wellington last night that she may be ready to resign, possibly within the next few weeks.

Maori Party President, Tuku Morgan, says he can understand why.

“The rug has been pulled out from under her by the King (Tuheitia) regarding his withdrawal of support for the Labour party,” he said.

“That’s the game changer.”

Ms Mahuta has indicated she is considering resignation.

Over the weekend she told TV3’s “Marae” programme that the question “gets asked every three years” and any politician worth their salt should ask if they have done their time.

“I’ll make whatever decision I make based on the fact that I want to see a change of government.”

Morgan says Mahuta has been looking for a place at home, for some responsibilities at home “and that’s been on going for some time.”

“So I wouldn’t be surprised if she goes soon.” Read more »

Tweet of the Day

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Hells bells.

No one wants a sex offender for a neighbour

No one wants a sex offender for a neighbour  but the cold hard truth is that if the court does not issue a public protection order,  the only option Corrections  have left is to house the offender in the community.

Understandably the communities where these offenders are being housed are very unhappy and lobby hard to have them removed. Without a public protection order when a sex offender is removed from one community he has to be put into another.  Only with a public protection order can he be housed in a secure community outside a prison well away from families and children after he has finished serving his sentence. Currently, one community assisted by the media party are trying to spin  the story that sex offenders are being put  into communities that vote labour by a heartless National government.

Read more »

Why a New Party needs $3m

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The good people at the NZ Seniors Party answered the questions we published, and we have already published their answers. One answer asked us a question so here is the answer.
The question was:  Analysis by members of our team suggests that a political party needs a budget of $3m in election year to be successful. Do you have this level of funding?

And their answer, in the form of a question: If NZ Firsts war chest was $150,000 for last election and they managed to get elected where does the $3 million come from?

This is a fair question although there is a big difference between Winston Peters, who has been an MP of and on since 1979, and an entirely new party. Peters already had a profile, a brand and a group of followers, and his earned media (free coverage in the media) was always going to be very, very high. The same cannot be said for a new party.  Read more »

Why Clinton can’t just run down the clock to win

Nate Silver crunches the numbers and discovers Clinton steadily bleeding support at a rate that won’t get her over the line.

Last week, Politico reported that Hillary Clinton’s campaign was set to employ a “run out the clock” strategy, declining to respond to recurring controversies even at the risk of seeming nonresponsive. In the abstract, such a strategy could make sense. Clinton has a fairly clear lead in the polls. There are only 10 weeks to go until the Nov. 8 election — and less than that until early voting, which begins in late September in some states.

But Clinton shouldn’t get too complacent. After mixed evidence before, it’s become clearer, at least according to our forecast models, that Donald Trump has regained some ground on her. Clinton’s national lead in our polls-only forecast has gone from a peak of about 8.5 percentage points two weeks ago to 6.5 percentage points as of Sunday evening — that is, a 2-point gain for Trump over two weeks. Correspondingly, Trump’s chances of winning the election have improved from a low of 11 percent to 19 percent.

By the time a team defends a lead to win, they tend to lose.  Teams win because they try to win every encounter on the field and they ignore the score board.  The score board is simply an outcome of winning everything you do.  Read more »

RIP Gene Wilder (83)

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Gene Wilder, who regularly stole the show in such comedic gems as “The Producers,” “Blazing Saddles,” “Young Frankenstein,” “Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory” and “Stir Crazy,” died Monday at his home in Stamford, Conn. His nephew Jordan Walker-Pearlman said he died of complications from Alzheimer’s disease. He was 83.

 

Andrew Little has a near miss, manages to clock up six

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Andrew had one Tweet yesterday:  Read more »

Unedited Right of Reply: The NZ Seniors Party

This is a response to yesterday’s Whaleoil article about the NZ Seniors Party here. The reply is published in full, and without immediate comment.

nz seniors party

In answer to your questions posted below The NZ Seniors Party would like to submit the following answers:

How are you going to get into parliament? Win an electorate or by getting to the 5% threshold?
As yet we have not registered the party but we intend to do so and hope to contest both electorate seats and the party vote.

Are you aware that the 5% threshold was 120282 votes in 2014, and is likely to be more in 2017 due to population growth?
With over 600,000 seniors registered as voters in New Zealand not counting younger voters we anticipate the party reaching the required 5% threshold as being a strong possibility. Read more »

Roy Morgan: A masterclass in how to not run a polling company

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There are some lovely stories to spin in those numbers, depending on which viewpoint you use.

  1. National have taken a hit over their lack of progress in housing
  2. National + NZ First can rule.  Oopsie.
  3. 200% increase in support for the Maori Party since they announced their Mana plans
  4. Simon Bridges’ blue/green Pizza Drone stunt shifts support to the Greens

Oddly enough, the current poll is about right when it comes to National and Labour.  The Greens always drop at election time, and NZ First tends to surge a bit. Read more »

Whaleoil General Debate

keep-calm-and-don-t-shoot-the-messenger-3Morning everyone, and welcome to Whaleoil’s daily General Debate post (another one called Backchat will start at 6pm). To participate you’ll need to register a free Disqus account.

There are some rules, and if there is one thing about Whaleoil that you need to know is that these rules are dispassionately and strictly enforced.