Aaron Bhatnagar

Last night saw the first meet the candidates meeting take place. Feedback received via the tipline was that Jami-lee Ross was the best on the night, with Aaron Bhatnagar showing a little nervous-ness and Maggie Barry showing her lack of political nous. Lack of a microphone undid some of the speakers, and Maggie Barry’s claim to have had an epiphany when listening to John Key’s Pike River speech sounded just desperate. Looking forward to seeing improvement across the board on Tuesday night at the next meeting. Never fear dear readers The Whale will be there via his spies, despite the efforts of the hierarchy to keep me out.

Jami-Lee Ross to win selec­tion: Price: $0.60 Probability: 59.9%

Mag­gie Barry to win selec­tion: Price: $0.37 Probability: 37.0%

Aaron Bhat­na­gar to win selec­tion: Price: $0.04 Probability: 4.3%

Ed Saafi to win selec­tion: Price: $0.01 Probability: 1.1%

Dar­ren Gedge to win selec­tion: Price: $0.01 Probability: 1.1%

In line with informing investors of who is behind who, it can now be confirmed that regional power-broker Hamish Price is the numbers man for Aaron Bhatnagar. It looks like Lucy, Jami-lee’s wife is assisting his campaign, which is usual for his method of campaigning. No other regional power-broker was in evidence last night, though Tamaki MP Allan Peachey was there as the only MP in attendance, probably checking over Aaron as a potential challenger for his seat.

Again, in line with informing investors of who is backing who, The Whale can now confirm that the main backer of Maggie Barry is Nick Smith. Nick Smith and his wife dined with Maggie Barry and her partner and their strategist Margaret Voyce at Sky City on Thursday night. During the meal Maggie Barry was seen to be taking copious notes as Nick Smith held court. Nick Smith was in Auckland ostensibly to attend the William Hague function, even though there is no direct portfolio interests for him being there. He was also the only MP to take a partner along, even though the invites didn’t include partners. One presumes the taxpayer picked up his flights from Nelson and accommodation to assist Maggie Barry in her campaign. Nick Smith, of course, is a BlueGreen as is Margaret Voyce, one of about 50 members out of 28,000 that have joined the BlueGreens.

Delegates don’t like, generally, celebrities, and they don’t like even more celebrities with endorsements from out of town senior MPs. This will be a strategic error on Nick Smith’s part and on Maggie Barry’s part. Delegates don’t like sitting MPs meddling in selections at a local level, especially when those meddling MPs are from Nelson.

There has been a bit of trading overnight and today on the iPredict Botany stocks and some movement over yesterday.

Jami-Lee Ross to win selec­tion: Price: $0.55 Probability: 55.0%

Mag­gie Barry to win selec­tion: Price: $0.37 Probability: 37.0%

Aaron Bhat­na­gar to win selec­tion: Price: $0.09 Probability: 9.4%

Ed Saafi to win selec­tion: Price: $0.01 Probability: 1.1%

Dar­ren Gedge to win selec­tion: Price: $0.01 Probability: 1.1%

Still look­ing like a two horse race at the moment but support is dropping off Maggie Barry, probably connected with the news flying around the party illuminati that Margaret Voyce is making calls on her behalf around regional delegates. This is probably also why Aaron Bhatnagar’s stocks have picked up as regional delegates slough off Barry.

The first meet the candidates meeting is tonight with a second on Tuesday and the final one on thursday immediately before the selection meeting.

The Botany iPredict Stocks have been up for more than a day. Current standings are:

Jami-Lee Ross to win selection: Price: $0.58 Probability: 58.3%

Maggie Barry to win selection: Price: $0.40 Probability: 40.1%

Aaron Bhatnagar to win selection: Price: $0.02 Probability: 1.9%

Ed Saafi to win selection: Price: $0.01 Probability: 1.1%

Darren Gedge to win selection: Price: $0.01 Probability: 1.1%

Looking like a two horse race at the moment.

from iPredict

Who will be National’s candidate for Botany?

New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, will this morning launch a bundle of binary contracts asking who will be selected on Thursday 27 January as the National Party’s candidate for the Botany by-election, to be held on Saturday 5 March.  Trading will begin at 10.30 am today (NZT).

The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said six contracts would be launched, for Maggie Barry, Aaron Bhatnagar, Darron Gedge, Jami-lee Ross, Edward Saafi and “Other” to be selected.  Contracts will pay $1 if the person is selected and $0 if they are not.  The value of the six contracts should sum to $1 at all times and the price of each one will indicate the market’s view of the probability of that person being appointed.  That is, if a contract trades at 25c, that person has a 25% probability of winning the nomination.

Mr Burgess said that with Botany being regarded as a safe National seat, the contracts would indicate who was likely to become MP for the electorate, which they may have an opportunity to hold for a long period.

iPredict will also launch a bundle of three contracts asking who would win the by-election – the National candidate, the Labour candidate or another candidate.  Trading in those contracts will also begin at 10.30 am.

iPredict’s binary contracts have a 90% success rate in accurately predicting future events.  The company is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington, and operates with authorisation from the Securities Commission.  Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz

The 5 people that the National Partry has selected to stand for selection in Botany on the 27th of January are:

Jami-Lee Ross, Darren Gedge, Maggie Barry, Aaron Bhatnagar and Ed Saafi.

Good luck to all 5, I am sure that National’s robust democratic selection process will select the best candidate for the seat and by-election.

I invite all candidates to send me a brief statement for inclusion in a general post about Botany and in particular I invite Ed to send me more details about him, because unfortunately I don’t know anything about him.

Photo: Stuff.co.nz

At the beginning of this post I want to make one thing absolutely clear. I am not taking sides in this selection process because I believe that the Party members who become delegates can be trusted to make the right decision. For the record I am friends with Jami-Lee Ross and Aaron Bhatnagar, and have only heard positive things about Denise Krum as a person, though not as a party hopper.

To be even handed I am going to continue with my original post on Botany and evaluate Maggie Barry in the same way as I have evaluated the others.

Maggie Barry

Everyone knows Maggie. She is like the friendly grandmother next door who always has some fresh baking to give to the neighbours kids. You can see her track record here. So I wont say much about her background except if a poll was taken she would probably have positive ratings across the country.

http://www.celebspeakers.com/maggie-barry/

Advantages

• High profile. Genuine name recognition.
• Positive public perception. As above. Maggie is a likeable and well liked person, just in the way everyone has a favourite grandmother or great aunt or older neighbour.
• Should be able to fund her own campaign. A big point in her favour in this blogs eyes after the debacle in Mana where some of the highest earning Maoris in the country insisted on taxing the rest of the party rather than funding their own campaign
• Rumours of the Prime Ministers support: The PMs word counts for a lot.

Disadvantages

• Age. To achieve much in parliament means getting in before 45 and having a long tenure. Maggie wont be a twenty year veteran with massive achievements in important portfolios.
• Media Background. No media people have succeeded in Parliament in recent memory. Chris Laidlaw, Dennis Welch, Pam Corkery and Deborah Coddington all had less than stellar careers, perhaps because being on the right end of a microphone means you think people have to listen to you. In parliament no one has to listen to you and you are a backbencher so not much more than a sales person for the party. Even the amazing in his own mind Brian Edwards was less than amazing as a Labour candidate.
• Lack of political experience. It is hard to imagine Maggie having what the Australians call the low bastardary necessary to succeed in politics.
• Lack of National Party contacts. As a talk show host Maggie had to be non aligned, and rightly so. The down side is she doesn’t have the contacts other nominees have.
• Need for Board Approval. The board does not have to approve her nomination, rule 94 I think, as she hasn’t been a member for a year.
• No campaign experience: Maggie will be knocking on the door of the electorate chair asking for volunteers and campaign advice if selected.<
• Not Local: Delegates will know Maggie, but will be more interested in if she knows the electorate and the issues that face the electorate. They will need convincing she is not just off to wellington on a power trip and will not forget the people of Botany.
• Rumours of Prime Ministers Support. If it is not true then Maggie will have to do a lot of explaining like Wira Gardiner did when his candidacy for the National board backed up by media that he was the PMs prefered choice for President. She could be in a very difficult position if someone in the media asks the PM point blank are you supporting Maggies candidacy? Or if someone in the media asks her “is the PM supporting your candidacy over all the other candidates?”
• Rumours of wide-spread caucus support. In her press release she says as much. Unfortunately, because of her lack of experience as a member of the National Party she mistakenly assumes that cucus and the leader select candidates. They don’t, the members do and it is utterly impossible to rig a selection.
• The Tamaki Precedent doesn’t come through again. When Rob Muldoon retired Clem Simich was selected over David Kirk. The local party didn’t want a world cup winning All Black captain and Rhodes scholar with no connection to the electorate. And Maggie sure isn’t a David Kirk.

National’s selection process is robust and fair. There will be sixty delegates making the choice, and the best person almost certainly wins. It won’t be on celebrity, it won’t be on anything else other than core National party ethos and values and candidates that make the mistake of thinking that it is all about them seldom collect enough delegates to win through.

I hope I have not appeared to negative towards Maggie because like most New Zealanders I believe she is a good person and has made a big contribution to our country over many decades. I just wonder if she wouldn’t be better to look for a list only place, or talk to JK about being Governor General. Someone of the gravitas that Maggie has does not need to be bruised like Wira Gardiner was, and the party hierarchy need to be aware of this.

Further to my post on Botany last night, as expected Jami-Lee Ross has announced his intention to seek selection in botany for National.

Auckland Councillor Jami-Lee Ross has announced he will be seeking selection for the National Party candidacy for the Botany by election.

Mr Ross says he is saddened that his local MP Pansy Wong has decided to resign from Parliament. “Pansy was a good electorate MP who cared deeply about her community and it was a pleasure working with her in my capacity as a city councillor. I respect her decision to retire, but I never expected to be seeking selection under these circumstances.”

First elected to the Manukau City Council in 2004, Mr Ross was returned to the Council in 2007 with an increased vote. He was successful in gaining election to the Auckland Council in last year’s local government elections and serves as Co-Leader of the Citizens & Ratepayers Team. Mr Ross currently represents the Howick ward which encompasses Botany, Howick and Pakuranga.

Mr Ross says he has strong links to the Botany electorate. “My wife, Lucy, and I have called this community our home for the past four years. I live in Botany, I work in Botany, and I represent Botany.

“As a local representative I have fought for funding for local sports clubs, developed and purchased land for new parks, and seen this growing community expand. Botany people know me as someone that asks the tough questions and speaks his mind on important local issues. Botany will be well served by my leadership.”

If successful in winning the National Party selection and the Botany by-election, Mr Ross will step down as a member of the Auckland Council. “It would not be possible to do justice to both jobs, especially with the expanded role for new Auckland councillors.

“The public expect politicians to do one job, and do that job properly. I will not try to juggle two full time positions. If I had have known my local electorate was going to need a new candidate so soon after the council elections I would not have stood for council.”

Good to hear he won’t be a double dipper. Jami-Lee would definitely be the front-runner and so far is the only local.

Also as predicted by this blog, Denise Krum has put her hame forward. She is an outsider, living in Ellerslie and also has the stigma of once being the president of United Future.

Within an hour of Ross announcing, Denise Krum, a former president of United Future also announced she is seeking the National Party nomination in Botany.

Krum stood for United Future in 2008 but switched to National after the election 2008 and is now the deputy electorate chair for National MP Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga and Deputy Regional Chair for the Northern (Auckland) region of the National Party.

Krum, 40, is the daughter of former National MP Graeme Lee and is co-founder and director of the Tableside Charitable Trust, which works with charities in Auckland communities.

Krum lives in central Auckland with her husband and their three children.

Krum said she is expecting, and welcomes, a vigorous selection process.

She also acknowledged the work Wong carried out in Botany.

Good to see she acknowledged Pansy’s role, like Jami-Lee Ross in her announcement, that is stark contrast to the me, me, me announcement of Aaron Bhatnagar. Unfortunately she has also played the gender card without realising that National doesn’t do quotas and selects the best candidate irrespective of their gender, race or sexual preference. If she wants to play that card she should join the Labour party.

With the membership definitely over the 200 members threshold there will be a contested selection, not a board selection. I look forward to blogging how the selection meetings go.

So far a few names for National’s Botany selection have come to the notice of The Whale. Here is a summary of interesting facts as a handy digest for delegates and members.

So far officially Remuera resident Aaron Bhatnagar is the only candidate for selection, though I expect that to change tomorrow. Jami-Lee Ross is a serious contender, and the names of Denise Krum, Darren Gedge and Cam Calder have come to my notice.

So onto some facts. All potential candidates are welcome to send their profiles for publishing on this web site or provide links to their web sites. It is likely more candidates will come forward, and they will be added in time.

Jami-Lee Ross

Jami-Lee Ross would clearly be the front-runner. He is local, and electable, having won three times already in essentially the same area. He is a hard worker in the party having been electorate secretary in Pakuranga for quite some time.

He has been particularly effective at spiking Len Brown, and Len would probably like to see the back of him from council for that reason. His constant holding of troughing politicians to account is a testament to his tenacity and honesty.

I have known Jami-Lee Ross for quite sometime and consider him to be a friend. That aside he is hard-working and would make an ideal long-term MP.

Advantages

• good contacts in the party
• good campaigner, wears out shoe leather
• good donor base (fully funded council campaign)
• good campaign team
• Maori (Ngati Porou)

Disadvantages:

• Young
• Limited real word experience
• Current Auckland Councillor
• Maori (Ngati Porou)

How Labour will attack him:

• Young and lack of experience in the real world
• Double dipping accusation if he wins (easily fended off by resigning from council)
• Causes a by-election in Howick (blame Pansy for this not Jami-Lee)

Aaron Bhatnagar

Aaron Bhatnagar announced his candidacy today, just two hours after the political death of Pansy Wong was announced. He was busy ringing around people long before the 10:30 announcement of Pansy Wong leading to charges of “grave-dancing”. Aaron would be better suited to Epsom, though that is problematic, or perhaps taking over from Allan Peachey in Tamaki. Peachey has never delivered and ill health dogs him.

Aaron is a friend also, but I think he just isn’t suited to Botany.

Advantages

• Dad’s deep pockets
• service to the party
• generous donor
• Indian

Disadvantages:

• Indian
• Perceived as arrogant and aloof
• Ex-Act member (turncoat accusations)
• Lives in Remuera
• Prone to inept silly pranks
• Campaign strategist for losing campaign of John Banks
• No real links to Botany

How Labour will attack him:

• Born to rule, tory, private school, to the manor born attitude
• Bring up his key involvement in the failed Banks campaign
• Keep talking about his close friendship with John Banks

Cam Calder

Cam Calder is a sitting scum list MP – that means should he be successful it would kick in National’s version of the Tizard Effect, bringing  in Dr Conway Powell, a decidedly average list candidate who isn’t even putting his name forward for any selections that I know of.

Cam is a very modest man with a lot to be modest about. He is dull, in a nice sense, but dull nonetheless and talks with his eyes closed…a pet hate of mine. Since he is from the North Shore he would be better suited to wait until Friday when a more suitable seat will become vacant.

Denise Krum

Denise Krum is the ex-president of United Future and as such has been in too close a proximity to Peter Dunne for my liking.  Again she isn’t from the electorate and charges of carpet-bagging could be laid (another of my pet hates).

Being an ex-United Future person makes her a party-hopper.

Darren Gedge

Regional Policy Chair, and a teacher at Elim Christian College. On committee in Botany electorate.

Pansy Wong has announced her resignation from parliament effective 17 January.

This means there will be a by-election in Botany, probably late February. UPDATE: The by-election will be held March 5 2011.

National will need to select a new candidate for Botany and the front-runner would be Jami-Lee Ross, sitting councillor of the area, though I expect that Aaron Bhatnagar and Kit Parkinson will put their names in the hat. Neither of those two actually live in the electorate.

Jami-Lee has proven himself to be successful in the area having already won three elections, the most recent being elected as councillor for Howick ward which encompasses Botany electorate entirely.

UPDATE: Kit Parkinson has indicated that he will not be putting his name forward. Aaron Bhatnagar has confirmed his nomination.

Astounding look-a-like

One is a trougher MP and the other wants to be.

Charlies Shovel, Troughing MP and Aaron Bhatnagar retiring Auckland City Councillor