Andrew Little

Labour’s election campaign is slip, slidin’ away

The election is slip, slidin’ away from Labour.

They are approaching the territory of Bill English, expect a sudden collapse of their vote in this final week as people wake up to¬†the¬†fact that they can’t win.

Voters don’t vote for losers.For the same reason people leave early from a rugby match when their team is getting pasted the voters will abandon Labour.

National is urging its supporters not to split their vote as our latest poll confirms the minor parties are on the rise – and Labour continues to slump.

The stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll signals a horror start to the final week of the campaign for Labour as its support slides to 22.4 per cent, putting it on track for an unprecedented trouncing.

It appears to have bled some support to the Greens, who are on 13 per cent. But most attention is around the seeming unstoppable rise of Winston Peters and NZ First.

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The wheels on the bus go round and round…

A reader emails:

Hi Whale Oil.¬† Couldn’t resist sending you this item from¬†today’s Taranaki Daily News.

Labour’s Big Red Bus arrived in New Plymouth yesterday with 6¬†supporters (yes, six of them) on board.¬† Amusingly, two of them are¬†“veteran campaigners” from Australia!

Are they really that desperate?

It certainly appears so…

unnamed-2

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What 25.7% means for Labour

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Arts, travel & lifestyle blogger David Farrar has a running average of the polls over on Kiwiblog. At the moment Labour is at 25.7% but is trending down.

What this means is that Labour is down to 32 MPs, and probably less. The other interesting thing is that Labour will probably keep winning seats where tired old warhorses like Trevor Mallard havent realised their day is done so wont leave.

If MPs like Mallard and the Stenographer Rooter Iain Lees-Galloway hold their seats, Kelston goes to Labour as expected, and they pick up some of the Maori seats, and Cosgrove and Nash win their seats Labour could have as many as 28 Electorate MPs.

This would mean Labour would only have four scum List MPs.

David Parker
Jacinda Ardern
Sue Moroney
Andrew Little

If Labour falls much more and still holds onto its seats they could lose Moroney and Little. And they are falling.

What a pity Jonesy jacked it. He would have been far better than Cunliffe.

Cartoon of the Day

Credit:  SonovaMin

Credit: SonovaMin

Labour relaunches their Hobbit Hater policy

Labour has re-launched their Hobbit Hater policy at the behest of the unions, proving that their investment in purchasing David Cunliffe and the 20% vote for the leadership has provided a cash for policy arrangement that is giving their leaders sticky knickers.

The Labour Party wants to repeal the law changes that were ceded to Warner Bros over The Hobbit films, a move which the Government says would cripple the $3 billion screen industry.

Labour leader David Cunliffe and MP Andrew Little launched the party’s work and wages policy yesterday, which included a boost to the minimum wage, and a commission of inquiry into workplace conditions.

Here’s an idea…why don;t they just declare a wages crisis, and in short order National will fix the problem. Seems to have worked for manufacturing and housing…it’s worth a crack.

So Labour wants to kill off the film industry in NZ, Dotcom’s party just wants to steal it, and the Greens want to destroy the oil¬†and gas industry.

They really are the wrecking ball of the NZ economy.

But wait it gets worse…Labour also wants to kill jobs.¬† Read more »

Bob Jones on the demise of NZ First

I’ll spare you the detailed description on Barry Soper and Audrey Young’s mandatory buttock grabbing (you can read that here, if you really want), ¬†instead, picking up the story here:

I never thought anything could top Laila Harre’s 2002 defeat explanation with her “unfortunately the public voted with their heads”, but, by God, there’s been some serious challenges – notably from Laila herself.

Even the most hardened hacks were dumbstruck by her protest at allowing her boss into the country. But she was immediately trumped by Kim Dotcom himself, who agreed it was an outrage. If he feels that strongly then America – where he’s destined to end up anyway – will give him a big hello, plus free accommodation for a very long time, although decidedly smaller than his current abode.

Colin Craig continues to delight. Explaining away his nutty image, he instead cemented it by saying: “It was logical to platform off the rhetoric already being discussed.” Psychiatrists are banned from entering, but there’s a trip to Upper Volta for anyone making sense of that.

Having lost female voters after declaring New Zealand women promiscuous, Colin is now targeting homosexuals by an advertising campaign showing him lying in long grass with a come-hither look. Missing is a rose stem between his teeth.

To add to the madness, Labour’s normally sane Andrew Little, jealous of Trevor Mallard’s moa headlines, declared men charged with sex crimes will be automatically guilty unless they can prove their innocence.

Then to further alienate male voters, Labour’s serial apologiser leader chimed in, unbelievably apologising for being a man.

If you were writing a script, you’f be going: ¬†“no, too much, it’s starting to get to the point nobody would believe this could actually happen”. ¬†And yet… the current farce isn’t over yet!
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Law and order proposals are “Ping-pong policies”

Both Labour and National have taken a hammering from Criminal Bar Association president Tony Bouchier.

Labour cops the worst of it though for proposing to move the burden of proof in rape cases from the prosecution tot he defence, having to prove consent occurred.

Proposed “vote-winning” law changes relating to criminal justice reform of rape cases could result in more innocent people being sent to prison, the Criminal Bar Association warns.

National and Labour say the current system is not providing justice for victims of sexual violation, and reform would make the system more victim-focused.

National wants to explore whether a judge or jury should be able to see a defendant’s refusal to give evidence in a negative light. Legal experts have called this an attack on the right to silence. ¬†¬† Read more »

Unions own Labour and why 20% stacks up ‚Äď Observation by the Owl

Helen Kelly and Andrew Little have completely stuffed Labour. This is a party which will never recover.

It will be doomed to the backwaters and is the new Alliance Party.

I give Labour another 3 more election cycles before it fades from history.

Here are some of the parallels

Unions got 20% of the vote to elect the Labour Leader

Total people belonging to unions in NZ (actually less than 20%)

Labour polls 20% ¬† Read more »

Unfortunately Tracy there is nothing to like and even less to trust

Tracy Watkins writes about The Cunliffe and his likeability and trust issues with the electorate.

Labour leadership is a brutal job. If Helen Clark had been made of different stuff she never would have survived Opposition.

Her colleagues tried to roll her just months out from the 1996 election and with good reason.

Labour’s polling under Clark was disastrous. Support for her as preferred prime minister was laughable. Voters thought she was arrogant, aloof and out of touch.

Everything about Clark – her hair, her teeth, her mannish voice – was picked over and dissected as another reason for voters to reject Labour. They were the worst years of Clark’s life. But when a delegation of Clark’s colleagues knocked on her door asking her to resign she stared them down.

There is said to be a desk somewhere around Parliament that still bears the scars from Koro Wetere digging his fingernails into its surface during their faceoff.

The story even had an (almost) happy ending when Clark took Labour close to winning the 1996 election – though perhaps not as close as her supporters believed on the night.

It was largely thanks to Winston Peters and MMP that she was able to keep Labour’s hopes alive before Peters opted to do a deal with National. But it was enough to secure Clark’s leadership. Three years later she led Labour to a sweeping victory and nine years in power.

Is Clark protege David Cunliffe made of the same stuff?

The difference between Helen Clark and David Cunliffe is two-fold. She had balls and a spine, both things that are sadly lacking from The Cunliffe. His self doubt is immense and hasn’t been helped with former leaders knocking on his door at parliament and assuring The Cunliffe that he shouldn’t worry, the polls will come right, chin up.

Labour’s poll ratings have sunk like the Titanic under Cunliffe’s leadership.¬†The latest Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos political pollhas Labour marooned in the mid-20s.

Forget about winning – avoiding an old-fashioned drubbing has become the priority. Only MPs with seats in Labour bastions like Manukau seem safe.

It is not at all far-fetched to imagine Labour sinking to National’s low point in 2002 – 21 per cent.

Under that scenario the damage to Labour could be immense. Unthinkably, even finance spokesman and number two on Labour’s list, David Parker, could be at risk. So too would stars like Jacinda Ardern and Andrew Little.

The only difference between now and 1996 is the election date. When Clark’s colleagues knocked on her door in May 1996 the election was still five months away. Even if Labour wanted to change its leader now, it probably couldn’t. Voters would punish such a visible display of panic and disarray just two months out from an election. Many in Labour’s activist base would revolt.

Cunliffe was their man, their nuclear option against a caucus that did not reflect their world view. A change of leader now would bring to the surface all the things voters reject – panic, a party in disarray and disunity.

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No one likes The Cunliffe

Cunliffe - Sh_t

David Cunliffe aka The Cunliffe, isn’t as popular as Greg Presland thinks he is.

In fact the Fairfax Ipsos polls shows that Labour would do better without him.

Vernon Small delivers the bad news.

Labour would get an immediate lift in the polls if it dumped leader David Cunliffe, a new poll suggests.

The stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll reveals that Cunliffe may have become Labour’s biggest liability, with a significant number of voters saying they would be more likely to vote for Labour if someone else were leader.

Click here for full poll results in graphics.

The effect is sizeable, making a 13.5 percentage point difference to Labour’s vote.

Although a similar effect is seen on National when asked the same question about John Key, it is much smaller.

The finding will plunge Labour further into crisis after yesterday’s poll result cementing Labour’s support in the mid-20s.

Privately, Labour and the Greens now acknowledge that it would take an unprecedented swing against National to force a change of government on September 20.

Some Labour MPs were yesterday privately canvassing leadership options, even at this late stage.

But they believe Labour would be even more severely punished by such an outward sign of panic. ¬†¬† Read more »