Andrew Little

Farrar provides some facts to counter the shrill headlines predicting John Key’s demise

The Media party have piled in on the latest Newshub poll suggesting that a small, less than the margin of error, drop in popularity of John Key is the beginning of the end of him.

They have ignored that Andrew Little is below Winston Peters in the same poll and he dropped even more than John Key.

Arts, lifestyle and travel blogger David Farrar takes time out from his hectic touring schedule to present some facts that seem to have escaped the commentators in the Media party.

The Newshub story says Key has plummeted as Preferred PM as he has dropped 1.5% in 6 months. This is of course not even statistically significant let alone a plummet of any kind.

I thought it would be useful to compare the Preferred PM ratings of May 2016, with May 2007 – the same point in Labour’s third term.

In May 2007 the PM was at 30% Preferred PM and in May 2016 the PM is at 37% Preferred PM.

In May 2007 the Opposition Leader was at 32% Preferred PM and in May 2016 the Opposition Leader is at 9% Preferred PM.

So Clark was trailing by 2% in May 2007, while in May 2016 Key leads Little by 28%.   Read more »

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Key “plummets” says Newshub…really? Since when has 1.8% been a plummet?

Newshub are pushing out their latest poll:

National though is steady on 47 percent on the poll — a drop of just 0.3 percent — and similar to the Election night result.

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However, National and its support partners would not be able to put together a government — they would need the support of Winston Peters.

Mr Peters would once again be Kingmaker — if he sided with Labour and the Greens, they would become the Government.

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Andrew Little’s claims are deceptive

Andrew Little has an opinion piece int eh Herald today and, as is usual with a union boss, it is highly deceptive.

Take these claims:

Paula Bennett wrote an opinion piece at the weekend, trying to justify the inexcusable reality we now face of new-born babies living in cars. Her excuse boiled down to ‘it’s too expensive’.

She claimed it costs $40,000 to house a family of five in Tamaki. That’s a trumped up example but let’s take it and see how many families a government with the right priorities could house:

• National spent $27m on a failed flag referendum. That could have housed 675 families

• $11.5m on a sheep farm in the Saudi desert could have housed 287 families

• $118m in dividends that National is taking out of Housing New Zealand could house 2,950 families

He fails to understand budget processes. Vote Housing does not include sums from Vote Internal Affairs (the flag referendum), Vote Foreign Affairs & Trade. But those claims too are facetious, because Labour has variously claimed the flag referendum money would have been better spent on Keytruda, education and other areas. Like tax cuts money Labour will spend it ten times over in their claims that they know best.   Read more »

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Knock me down with a feather, Soper gets something right

More evidence has emerged that the Media party have had enough of Andrew Little.

Barry Soper, who lives in a world with pink skies and goes through life wearing red tinted glasses is the latest to “turn” on Little.

Being in political opposition isn’t where anyone wants to be. It has often been said that being the opposition leader in New Zealand politics is the toughest job on the block.

Certainly that was the view of Helen Clark, who on a trip back from the Big Apple a couple of years back, lamented she was on the outside looking in for six years before the Beehive’s ninth floor door opened to her.

By contrast, John Key had just two years banging his head against a brick wall before assuming the top political job. Andrew Little’s hoping to pull it off after three years of tyre kicking.

And that’s what being in opposition is, kicking tyres, hoping they’re attached to a vehicle that the public feels comfortable going along for the ride in. But if Little thinks there’ll be a warrant of fitness for the current housing woes in this Thursday’s Budget – which he believes there should be otherwise it’s a failure – then he’s on a road to nowhere.

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Andrew Little’s message to teachers

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As most of you know I regularly receive e-mails from my mate Andrew Little. He sent me a copy of his speech and I thought I would have a look at what he said specifically about education as we have two powerful teacher unions who no doubt would be eager to hear what he had to say. I am sorry to say fellow teachers that the news is all bad. Andrew is not happy with our ” World class ” education system and it looks like it is all charter schools’ fault despite the fact that they have only been around for three years.

Yes, it is all doom and gloom in this speech. Fortunately though Labour can fix it. So what is the answer? I will give you a hint, it’s more money. Money is the answer. Apparently all Labour has to do to “fix” the public system is close charter schools and put that money (which is actually achieving amazing results) back into our Public System that isn’t, ( Andrew’s words not mine.)

People want a good job, a home they can call their own, a good school to send their kids to, and healthcare if they get sick.

…These are the goals most New Zealanders have for themselves and for their families. That’s the Kiwi Dream.

…But right now, too many people feel like those goals are further and further out of reach.

…Parents are paying more for their childrens’ education, but our schools aren’t performing as well.

Our country is facing some big challenges right now.

In the economy, in housing, in health and education.

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So Labour, tell us again what your internal polling is showing

Labour MPs are being lied to by Andrew Little’s dream team. They keep telling them that National is on 41% and Labour is on 32% in their internal polling. They also claim that John Key’s net approvals are falling.

There is a massive problem with both of those propositions. Our own exclusive polling for INCITE: Politics shows Andrew Little’s net approvals are deeply negative while John Key’s net approvals are positive.

Secondly, public polls keep coming out showing a massive difference between Labour’s whispering campaign to talk up their own polling.

The latest being the Roy Morgan poll.

During May support for National rose 3% to 45.5%, now ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9.5% (even though down 3% still NZ First’s second highest level of support in twenty years) would be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners fell slightly with the Maori Party, down 0.5% to 1.0%, Act NZ was 1% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 29.5% (up 3.5% to their highest support since November 2015), Greens 12% (down 2.5%) and NZ First 9.5% (down 3%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1% (up 0.5%).

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Little’s litany of lies

Reshuffle? Got to try something, I suppose

Facts?   Ermmmm….

The government is dismissing Labour’s criticism of it’s record in office as “just a pile of slogans”.

Party leader Andrew Little on Sunday used a pre-budget speech to accuse National of tilting the economy in favour of the rich.

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Andrew Little finally manages to unite people

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The media have united against Little’s pathetic pre-budget speech.  I’ve yet to see a single political commentator praise it in any way.  Richard Harman joins the queue of pundits who are finished with Little.

…Mr Little’s core message: “And while the few at the very top got to enjoy special rules that meant they didn’t have to pay their fair share – everyone else is paying the cost.”

This is likely to be the theme of a great deal of Mr Little’s rhetoric over the next few months. Read more »

Little says more selfies is an indicator of popularity, I’ve worked out why

The other day Andrew Little was ebullient about his prospects in the coming election next year.

His rationale was because more people were wanting selfies with him.

I’m not kidding, that’s his proof, here’s what he said.

After a trough in the polls, Little believed Labour was bouncing back and said that was shown by the response to him out and about New Zealand. People were stopping him in the street, shaking hands and taking “selfies”.

“There is a mood shift, there’s a changing expectation.”

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Farrar slams Little’s invented stats

David Farrar knows a thing or two about statistics, and a fair amount about politics. When he isn’t writing about arts, lifestyle and travel topics he dabbles in politics.

Today he slams Andrew Little’s made up stats from his pre-budget speech yesterday.

Stuff further reports:

Little said just 37 per cent of economic growth had gone into the pay packets of working families since National came to power – down from over 50 per cent under the previous Labour government. 

That meant the average family had lost out on more than $13,000 under the Government, and would miss out on $50 a week this year.

The use of this statistic is rather revealing, as to both how desperate and also how ill informed Labour are. Three things I’d note:   Read more »