Danyl McLauchlan updates his poll of polls chart, which he alleges corrects for poll bias. It may do, but it doesn’t really matter because for Labour the lines are going in the wrong direction. I’d be interested to know whether the poll bias is mathematically calculated or emotionally calculated.
Danyl explains what the chart shows from his point of view, which is not dissimilar to mine.
(This chart corrects for poll bias â€“ just like Nate Silver! â€“ the code to generate it was writter by Peter Green. You can see a non bias corrected chartÂ here. Note how the aggregated curves for National and NZ First are miles away from the actual election results?)
Labour are losing votes to National, and theyâ€™ve lost them during the period of time in which the GCSB bill was introduced and the Sky-City deal signed off. They should be winning, not losing. Shearer has responded by replacing his Chief of Staff with Fran Mold, his former press secretary, and Labourâ€™s MPs are leaking to the gallery that his leadership is under threat if he doesnâ€™t reverse this downward trend.
I donâ€™t have any close contacts within Labour these days, but the second-hand gossip I hear is that staff morale is very low, thereâ€™s no longer any expectation theyâ€™ll be in government next term and thereâ€™s very little respect for the senior MPs currently dominating the party, who are seen as chronic underperformers (Annette King â€“ elected to Parliament thirty years ago â€“ was billed as aÂ superstar Health opposition spokespersonwhen Shearer reshuffled at the start of the year. Howâ€™s that working out?)
Changing the CoS doesnâ€™t seem likely to fix the partyâ€™s problems, but neither does changing the leader, unless its accompanied by more drastic change.
Danyl forgets about the man-ban debacle in there as well, not just the GCSB and SkyCity issues, which frankly are beltway issues of no import to the wider electorate.