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Kiwis stop backing Team New Zealand at the TAB

The nation has hit a crisis of confidence it seems

”It’s been rare for us to see a bet on Team New Zealand this morning,” [yachting bookmaker Kieran] McAnulty said.

It is a dramatic change for TAB, which the Friday before last thought the America’s Cup was all over and closed off betting.

But than Oracle made a ”dramatic turnaround” and TAB reopened its books.

While the tide of betting was very much in Oracle’s favour today, things were a little more optimistic yesterday, when a $16,000 bet was placed for the Kiwis to win.

Even so.  One Kiwi punter thinks the money is good betting Team New Zealand is going to lose

Team New Zealand may still have the lead in the America’s Cup, but one punter has bet $10,000 the Kiwis will lose.

As more and more punters placed their money on a victory for United States team Oracle in the America’s Cup, the TAB today drastically reduced its odds of a New Zealand victory, [] McAnulty said.

Following Team New Zealand’s double-loss this morning, Oracle was paying $3 to win against $1.33 for the kiwi team.

Are we a country of chokers?

Are they a country of cheaters?

Odds on the next pope? No odds yet on sorting out their child abuse issues

noname

Not sure how you get a line on the next pope but these are the oddsRead more »

What exactly is Labour’s position on gambling

Labour have come out against SkyCity and pokies, and gambling in general.

As is usual with Labour they are hypocrites. The are organising a fundraiser at Ellerslie Racecourse that includes:

“…team betting, racebook, private room, special ‘guest punter’ and spot prizes”

I wonder who the special guest punter is?

Interesting though that gambling when raising funds for Labour is a “great fun event for the whole family”.

Now you are either against the evils of gambling or it is a “great fun event for the whole family”…it certainly can’t be both.

Do Not Go into Battle With A Slingshot

Rob Hosking at NBR has brought some sanity to the “high dollar’ debate that Bernard Hickey along with Selwyn Pellett and his corporate welfare gang, seem to talk about quietly and then loudly among themselves.  Rob has dissected the issues  and provided reasons that Hick-think is so very very wrong for the New Zealand economy.

Rob looks at the enormity of our paddle pond v the world’s markets on US QE measures.

Rob goes one further

 

Understanding forecasting and polls

FiveThirtyEight

People have criticised me in the comments on posts where I post Nate Silver’s predictions and where the numbers call the election for Obama. They also mistake my calling the election for Obama at this stage as support for Obama. They should not, but that is a separate post.

Ther eis a reason I prefer Nate Silver’s predictions…he is usually right…and uncannily so. Sure you can point to individual polls that show Mitt Romney beating Obama, but that is a single poll.

Nate Silver uses far more sophisitcated modelling than simple polling. Conveniently he has explained what he does in a recent post. It is very enlightening. Especially the comparison of his methodology with prediction markets and betting agencies.

Before people diss what Nate Silver has to say, based ont eh numbers and his unique methodologies, they should really learn and understand what makes his models tick. It is way, way more than just running a “poll of polls” which is what some think.

I sometimes get asked whether I bet money on my forecasts — I don’t, since I would consider it a conflict of interest — or failing that, whether I would recommend a bet on them relative to the odds on offer at Intrade or Betfair.

My answer is probably unsatisfying. I think modeling a presidential election is a pretty hard problem. I think futures markets and sports books (like markets of any kind) can certainly go wrong. But I also think that the statistical methods can go wrong: all of them rely on a set of assumptions and choices made by the forecaster.

Some choices, in my view, are clearly better than others. One or two of the statistical methods, for instance, assumes that the outcome in each state is independent of the outcome in the next one. Ohio might move in one direction — and Michigan, just as easily, in the opposite one.

That’s simply not a credible assumption. The failure to appreciate correlations in risk is one of the things that led to the recent financial crisis. A change in economic conditions, or a substantial gaffe or scandal in the campaign, is likely to be reflected to some degree in all states, and move all of their numbers in the same direction. Our model assumes that the uncertainty in different states is largely, but not entirely, correlated. If you believe the contrary, you probably ought not be let anywhere near a job function in which you are asked to manage risk — although the credit-ratings agencies might be happy to hire you.

These pet peeves aside, elections forecasting is a challenging problem. More often, the assumptions in a model are intrinsically going to be educated guesses rather than being demonstrably right or wrong.

So my default is this: Bet on Vegas relative to the FiveThirtyEight model, but bet on the FiveThirtyEight model relative to Vegas. If you take the average between the FiveThirtyEight model and the consensus betting lines, you’d get about a two-in-three chance of Mr. Obama winning another term.

Breasel should apologise

Capitalism Kills Fat slobAs more evidence continues to come out at the Coroner’s inquest into Fololobese Muliaga’s death the more we should be demanding an apology from Breasel for using so shamelessly the death of someone in his “family” for political points scoring.

Today the Coroner’s Court heard that Fololobese Muliaga was a dead woman walking. So dead in fact that she had a no resucitate notation on her health records with the Counties-Manukau District Health Board.

[quote]Medical records presented to the Coroner show that if Mrs Muliaga had suffered a cardiac arrest in hospital, no attempt would have been made to resuscitate her.

Dr Andrew Veale, a respiratory expert for the DHB, said neither Mrs Muliaga nor her family knew about this, and they should have been kept informed.

But Dr Veale said she could have died at any stage, even while using her oxygen machine for the recommended 16 hours a day.[/quote]

So in other words, the eminent medico’s including the putz that gave “damning” evidence just a couple of days ago knew she was worm fodder, it was just a matter of time. The oxygen machine is a side issue and now we should be looking at assisted suicide as the cause of death.

It is what I have said all along. Fololobese Muliaga ate herself into the condition she was in, refused medical advice to lower her substantial weight through dient and exercise and when told she better get her affairs in order, she went home to have the boys sing her songs and play the guitar while she quietly just died on them. She knew she was dying, she gave up. It just so happens that some poor putz from Mercury Energy stumbled along conveniently for them to use Breasel to extort money from a corporate when it wasn’t even their fault.

Breasel should be apologising and so should Clark for politicising her death. She didn’t even bother and nor did any other Labour minister to turn up at the service for the 7 killed in the canyoning disaster.

Maia is a loopy bitchNot only that now loopy bitch Maia is in on the act blaming, again, capitalism for Fololobese Muliaga’s death. Yeah I suppose it was captialism, after KFC and McDonalds are evil capitialist organisations and they force fed her on their sub-standard capitalist pig swill.

Breasel and his family are being shown up for what they are, lying toerags intent on defrauding Mercury Energy over the death of their self terminated mother. It is Mercury Energy that should be seeking damages.

Oh and another thing, still waiting Brease for the “bash” you are supposed to be giving me, or don’t you have a HT licence for the truck you’ll need to bring the boys around?