Brian Edwards

Hide: “…the experts know nothing about politics”

Rodney Hide explains how it is that the supposed experts actually know nothing about politics…and uses my good friend Brian Edwards as an example.

The wonderful thing about politics is that no one knows what they are talking about. There are no experts. There are no laws of political motion. Political science is oxymoronic.

Let me illustrate how little we know by picking on our most qualified and experienced political commentator. He has a PhD, has interviewed and known political leaders for five decades, has been an adviser to four prime ministers, has spent a lifetime in all branches of the media and makes a living media training business leaders and other professionals. He has also stood for Parliament and is no sideline Sam. He knows politics, inside and out. His knowledge, history and hands-on experience dwarfs all other political commentators.

I refer, of course, to Dr Brian Edwards. I single him out because of his eminence.

Oh dear this is sounding ominous.

Here’s what he had to say last year when David Cunliffe took over the Labour leadership:

“David Cunliffe has a brilliant mind, is a brilliant speaker and debater and there is no politician to match him on the box. Cunliffe is the game-changer.

“And the proof of the pudding will lie where it has always lain – in the polls. And particularly in the Preferred Prime Minister poll. No party leader permanently registering under 15% in that poll, let alone dipping into single figures, can hope to enjoy the (© Copyright Protected – The National Business Review 76)confidence of the electorate or lead their party to victory. And that has been the situation for every Labour Leader since 2008.

“But all that changed today as well. Under Cunliffe’s leadership, his and Labour’s poll rating will begin to rise, slowly but inexorably.”

Mr Cunliffe has proved a game changer but directly opposite to what Dr Edwards foresaw: Mr Cunliffe has doomed Labour.

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Brian Edwards on “why John Key’s days are numbered”

And the proof of the pudding will lie where it has always lain – in the polls. And particularly in the Preferred Prime Minister poll. No party leader permanently registering under 15% in that poll, let alone dipping into single figures, can hope to enjoy the confidence of the electorate or lead their party to victory. And that has been the situation for every Labour Leader since 2008.

My dear friend Dr Brian Edwards is right of course.

More from his September 2013 piece

I hadn’t intended to do anything more on this mini-post than congratulate David [Cunliffe] and [his wife] Karen. But I’ve decided to stick my neck out and make a prediction. I predict that a Labour/Greens coalition will win the 2014 election and that David Cunliffe will be New Zealand’s next Prime Minister. Labour might even go it alone.

To think my dear friend Brian was paid to advise Helen Clark.  You have to wonder who got the better end of that deal?

Now, as it happens, I don’t think John Key is a particularly good communicator at all. 

Keep ‘em coming Brian, you’re on fire.

But  today the picture changed. John Key has some real opposition. David Cunliffe has a brilliant mind, is a brilliant speaker and debater and there is no politician to match him on the box.

Get ready for it….

 

Cunliffe is the game-changer.

BOOM!

 

snapper

 

H/T Lion_ess

 

Brian Edwards on Shane Taurima, Linda Clark and Conflicts of Interest

My good friend Brian Edwards has this to say about Shane Taurima and his actual conflict of interest:

There was nothing terribly complex about Shane Taurima’s situation with regard to his job as Head of TVNZ’s  Maori and Pacifica Department once he had, albeit unsuccessfully,  sought the Labour Party nomination for the Rawhiti Ikaroa seat following the death of Parekura Horomia. Taurima had very publicly nailed his political colours to the mast. In doing so he had effectively disbarred himself from any further involvement in News or Current Affairs broadcasting with the state broadcaster. The potential conflict of interest could not have been more clear.

Television New Zealand apparently did not see it that way. Perhaps they thought that Taurima’s failure to actually win the nomination made all the difference. He had been a would-be Labour candidate, not an actual Labour candidate.  (And, as it turned out, would be again.) That rationalisation is so facile as to be laughable. Taurima was politically tainted. He should not have been re-employed in his previous role. But he was.

When he took things even further and  turned his TVNZ office into a Maori/Pacifica Labour Party branch, Taurima did his employer a favour.  Without actually hanging portraits of Savage, Fraser and Kirk on the walls, the conflict of interest in which he and others in his department now found themselves could not have been more patent. To his credit, Taurima had the grace and good sense to resign.

He resigned because the case was so clear cut there was no other option. Unfortunately for Shane Taurima he thought Labour would stand by their electorate chair, instead they have given him the cold-face and turned their back.

There is actually nothing new about all of this. The list of television and radio  broadcasters working in news and current affairs who are or have been simultaneously engaged in activities which conflict with their obligation to be and be seen to be utterly impartial in all matters relating to their jobs, is extremely long. They may well be in the majority. Conflicts of interest among such practitioners abound.

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This is not journalism, it is grandstanding

paddy

Disgraceful “journalist” Patrick Gower

I have had reported to me the outrageous, aggressive behaviour of Patrick Gower from 3News at the stand up of Maurice Williamson.

I didn’t see the video, but Fairfax have helpfully published a transcript. This has got to be one of the most outrageous, shabby, poorly behaved journalist I have ever seen.

And the mainstream media has the temerity to scoff at my abilities. Gower asks questions and then answers them in the same breath. The innuendo is disgraceful. I think it might be time for some other media organisations to start holding some of these reporters to account themselves.

If you thought Patrick Gower’s ransacking of the Oravida offices was distasteful then cop a load of this.

Reporter: “Have you called up about a guy on charges?

Williamson: “I don’t know whether I could answer that.”

Reporter: “Well, have you done it before?”

Williamson: “Well Paddy, I can’t remember every call I’ve made over the last 27 years.”

Reporter: “Because you haven’t, have you. You’ve given this guy special treatment, he’s not even one of your constituents.”

Williamson: “How do you know that?”

Reporter: “You rang one of the most senior police officers.”

Williamson: “How do you know that?”

Reporter: “About this guy’s case.”

Williamson: “John Tims has a regular dialogue with MPs in the electorate, we go out and meet with him.”

Reporter: About people’s cases?

Williamson: “No no, we go out and talk with him.”

Reporter: “No, he doesn’t, tell the truth, tell the truth. You gave special treatment to a donor to the National Party.”

Williamson: “No, I didn’t give special treatment.” Reporter: “Yes, you did.”

Williamson: “If it had been anybody else.”

Reporter: “You’ve never done it before in your career.”

Williamson: “Well, I’m sorry, I don’t actually think you know that.”    Read more »

No Brian, Jones won’t be PM

Just four days ago Brian Edwards was pondering whether or not Shane Jones would become NZs first Maori PM.

… as I watched and re-watched this speech, I thought I could perhaps see a future Leader of the Opposition and a Prime Minister to boot.

Well, the answer for Brian Edwards is a resounding no, not ever, as Shane Jones dropped his bombshell that he is leaving the sinking ship that is the David Cunliffe led Labour party.

Watch Labour go feral on him…They won’t be able to resist going nasty. The hate National for sure but they hate turn coats even more.

Shane Jones knows where all the bodies are buried and as Labour turns feral on him he will unload as a favour to the guys who gave him a lifeboat.

Labour is shellshocked. Neither David Cunliffe or David Parker fronted last night as the carnage unfolded. Moira Coatsworth simply mumbled inanities to the media and the left wing blogosphere went into ostrich mode.

When I made my comments about Shane Jones on The Huddle last night, about being the most effective MP for Labour this year just before 6pm little did I know what was about to unfold. Labour has lost their best performing MP now, the only MP currently that resonated with working NZ and was addressing important issues that were important to voters.

Steven Joyce was sledging but he was accurate when he tweeted:

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Who is paying Brian Edwards to push this idea so hard?

Some time back my good friend Brian Edwards cried off blogging, but it seems he has found a new source of luncheon sausage because he is back in the saddle so to speak and blogging up a storm.

His latest post suggests that Shane Jones’ time has come to lead the Labour party.

From the tone of his post it seems he has given up on the Cunliffe experiment.

If you’re a regular follower of this blog, you’ll know that I have in the past written some pretty scathing posts on Labour’s Shane Jones. Not to put too fine a point on it, I’ve dismissed him not only as a future leader of the Party, but as a worthwhile Member Of Parliament and a decent human being.

Then, yesterday, I came across this video on the Herald’s website. And I had no choice but to radically change my previous opinion and to do so with a degree of regret that it had ever been expressed. I’d had a preview of Shane Jones’ debating skill and facility with words a week or two back when he was interviewed on The Nation by Paddy Gower. But this was something different. It was an extraordinary display not only of oratory and the art of persuasive communication but of subtlety of thought and intellectual depth, leavened with humour. It was theatre.

One need not go far to look for a reason. Jones is equally fluent in Maori and English. But his impact when he combines the two is nothing less than extraordinary.

Well, he is also a man who provokes strong feelings of approval and disapproval, a high-risk candidate for the highest office in the land. But as I watched and re-watched this speech, I thought I could perhaps see a Leader of the Opposition there and a Prime Minister to boot.

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Brian Edwards scolds Cunliffe

My good friend Brian Edwards really has taken a break from his break in blogging and offered up some advice to David Cunliffe regarding cuddling the Green party.

This is essentially a rerun of the arguments against too close an association between Labour and the Alliance in 1999. But Labour won that election in a landslide.

And there’s a major difference between the Alliance then and the Greens today.  The Alliance would  survive for only three years in Parliament. The Greens are today a major political force, currently with 14 seats in Parliament. And, under the Norman/Turei leadership, they have largely lost their image as environmental flakes.

In my submission, far from weakening Labour’s electoral chances, a formal pre-election coalition agreement with the Greens would have created a strong centre-left force, a blend of pragmatism and idealism, clearly differentiated from National  and with wide electoral appeal. And strength in numbers.

Cunliffe’s rejection of the Greens’ pre-election engagement proposal has merely served to bolster the public view of a divided left, incapable of getting its act together, let alone running the country.   Read more »

Another perspective on Dotcom’s nazi fetish

Carrie Stoddart-Smith  at Ellipsister blogs on her thoughts about Kim Dotcom, the Interet party and his nazi fetish.

On its own, purchasing the copy of Mein Kampf and other WW2 memorabilia isn’t in my view sufficient evidence for claiming that KDC is a Nazi sympathiser. It might raise questions about his character, however, collectors do in fact purchase these kinds of items and we cannot ignore the news coverage of the raid on KDC’s mansion that referred to him as a collector of sorts.

But I think Giovanni Tiso is right about social norms in Germany and the improbability of German’s finding pleasure in collecting Nazi artefacts or posing for photo’s wearing Nazi memorabilia.  Tiso writes from his experience and understanding as an Italian, the difference between how neo-Nazism is approached in Italy versus Germany.

I blogged yesterday on Giovanni Tiso’s position.

I do have my reservations as to whether there would have been as much public interest or even outcry if only a single event tarnished KDC’s name. I’m sure there would still have been questions that lingered and general suspicions. Interestingly or even perhaps unsurprisingly, many bloggers who support KDC have limited their focus to a single factor attempting to minimise the weight attributed to the claims against KDC, including a post promoted by Vikram Kumar entitled The power of an open mind that hinges only on the fact that KDC owned Mein Kampf.

To my knowledge, KDC has not even made a decent attempt to apologise for his offensive behaviour or comments. Instead he dismisses the claims or events as unremarkable, or offers up excuses and weak justifications for his actions.  Read more »

Brian Edwards has his panties in a bunch

My good friend and luncheon sausage aficionado Brian Edwards has got his panties in a bunch over TV3′s media bias.

The following report by TV3 political editor Paddy Gower appeared on the channel’s 6pm bulletin last night. Setting aside as best you can your political prejudices, please answer the following question: Is this journalism or a party political broadcast on behalf of the National Party?

http://www.3news.co.nz/Cunliffes-poll-numbers-slide-after-trust-issue/tabid/1607/articleID/338161/Default.aspx

He needn’t worry, TVNZ is pulling their weight as Labour’s sleeper agents.    Read more »

If Hone has bolted then who is the mystery MP or is Kim Dotcom just making it all up?

It look like Hone Harawira has realised the problem inherent in bending over for Kim Dotcom and declared the deal is off.

Mana Party leader Hone Harawira has said they would not look to work with Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party any time soon.

In a statement released tonight, Mr Harawira said liaising with Mr Dotcom’s party – to be launched on Thursday – would not be in Mana’s best interests.

With the Herald editorial and the Dompost editorial out right hostile, perhaps he has done something smart for once in his life.

Small parties need friends, and so maybe we shouldn’t be surprised at Mana’s flirtation with the Internet party. MP Hone Harawira has tried to broaden his appeal since he split with the Maori Party. He came up with Mana, a collection of brown and white radicals that got a little more than 1 per cent of the vote in the 2011 election. That was roughly what ACT got.

In other words, the Mana experiment is not working and something else is required. But Kim Dotcom can’t be the answer to Mana’s problem. Politics makes strange bedfellows, but this couple would be grotesque. The party of the poor and the dispossessed hooks up with a German tycoon? The party of justice and redistribution beds down with the man from Megabucks Corp?

[...]  Read more »