Back in December 2011, I think when David Farrar was having one of his many holidays (African Safari), Jadis wrote a piece at Kiwiblog predicting the demise of David Shearer in 18 months.
Bryce Edwards has an interesting piece on the Herald online. Bryce suggests it is a bold move to elect Shearer in the hopes he can go head-to-head with Key. Bold to the degree that Bryce suggests Shearer needs to perform within the next two years or he is gone; rolled by Robertson. I give Shearer eighteen months.
My learned Labour contacts suggested to me before the vote even took place that it didn’t really matter all that much who was elected Leader of Labour. Their view was that the victor would never be the next Labour Prime Minister. We are seeing Labourlurch from Phil ‘fill-in’ Goff to another fill-in guy. Shearer’s going to find it tough. He’s backed more by Labour’s old guard but without the real depth of relationships (or indeed institutional knowledge of the Party) while needing to reach out to the more progressive members of the Party. Shearer has a timeline worse than English ever had. Shearer may not even see an election.
So Bryce Edwards and Jadis, and me called out Shearer a long time ago…that he wouldn’t make it till the election.
What did David Farrar have to say? Well day after the post from Jadis he posted this:
For those who missed it, the post before this one was by Jadis, one of my guest editors. As it happens I disagree with Jadis on this, and think Shearer will lead Labour into the 2014 election. Hell if Labour didn’t roll Phil Goff for non-performance, then Shearer has nothing to worry about.
I actually think he has a very decent chance of becoming Prime Minister.
Snippy much? Anyway Jadis was right and David Farrar was wrong.