Clayton Cosgrove

With support like this…

Clayton Cosgrove is said to be trailing in Waimakariri by a substantial margin in a Fair fax poll released today.

The other day I highlighted his debranding and the personal endorsement of a PSA union rep.

Jillian Innes,  is actually the local PSA rep. How desperate must Clayton be that he has to use ring-ins for endorsements. This is the ad where Jillian Innes says she will be voting for Clayton Cosgrove.

Which made this email to the tipline this morning very interesting indeed:

Whale,

I read your post the other day about  the PSA rep endorsing Clayton Cosgrove. Something didn’t smell right about this so I went down to my local PostShop and looked at the electoral roll. Jillian Innes isn’t on the roll for Waimakariri but she is on the roll for Te Tai Tonga!

No wonder he is struggling for votes. Talk about a spectacular own goal for one little ad. First he debrands and doesn’t even mention Labour, then the person is outed as a PSA union hack and then they aren’t even on the electoral roll for Waimakariri.

The dishonesty around Clayton Cosgrove just grows and grows and grows.

Cosgrove in big trouble

Clayton Cosgrove, through de-branding in successive election cycles, had previously made Waimakariri a fortress for him. Theoretically it should also be a fortress for Labour.

Waimakariri Labour MP Clayton Cosgrove faces a crushing defeat as a new poll shows his National rival, Kate Wilkinson, has opened up a huge lead in the seat.

A Fairfax Media-Research International snap poll in the seat put Wilkinson on 53.9 per cent of decided voters against 36 per cent for Cosgrove. The only consolation for Cosgrove is that the poll of 250 voters had a margin of error of 6.2 per cent and a high proportion of undecided voters – 23.5 per cent.

The poll also showed a huge lead for National of 71.9 per cent to Labour’s 17.4 per cent.

That compares with 2008 when National won the party vote in the seat by 49.4 per cent to 33.9 per cent for Labour.

Clayton Cosgrove must have known this was a possibility because for the first time in a few elections he sought the safety of the list. Unfortunately for the voters they can’t truly get rid of Clayton Cosgrove because he sits at number 8 on Labour’s list.

iPredict has reversed overnight.

Face of the Day

I know I’ve already done this but today it is just so appropriate.

Not a genuine endorsement

Clayton Cosgrove is de-branding, but he is also not using genuine endorsements in his advertising.

It turns out that the poor earthquake victim, Jillian Innes,  is actually the local PSA rep. How desperate must Clayton be that he has to use ring-ins for endorsements.

The dishonesty of labour and Clayton Cosgrove knows no bounds it seems.

Debranding, Ctd

Clayton Cosgrove’s latest ad in from todays “Christchurch Mail”.

Not a single mention of Labour. Very smart.

Face of the Day

Cosgrove and Street openly fighting

I saw a very strange article in the Nelson Mail, where is appears Maryan Street and Clayton Cosgrove are having a wee tiff:

Ms Street made the promise at a New Zealand Educational Institute-organised election candidates meeting in Stoke on Monday night, and when asked yesterday she said she did not resile from it.

Her stance appears to be stronger than that of Labour’s law and order spokesman Clayton Cosgrove, who while also proposing repeal has left some room for movement if Labour forms the next government.

The Sentencing and Parole Reform Act, known as the three-strikes law, was passed last year, and mandates that judges impose harsher sentences on repeat offenders.

Offenders are sentenced and eligible for parole for strike one, sentencing remains the same, but rights to parole and an early release from jail are taken away for strike two.

On the third strike, offenders pay the maximum price for the crime committed. For murderers that is life in prison with no chance of parole.

Mr Cosgrove said if elected the party would “back what works and review what doesn’t”, and it would take “something seismic” to convince him to keep the law.

But Ms Street said that a repeal would be a definite step in a Labour-led government.

“He [Mr Cosgrove] said that we would need very, very good evidence about why we should retain it, so I just flipped that round the other way and said that we would repeal it,” she told theNelson Mail yesterday.

“For me, it is a stupid piece of legislation; it takes away the discretionary powers of judges, which are very useful at times in determining harsher sentences depending on circumstances.”

To be fair to Clayton he knows what happens when you go up against The Crusher. Maryan Street is yet to find out what it feels like when that sttely gazes rests upon you. I suspect she will find out pretty soon after November 26 if she continues to oppose “three strikes”.

Labour’s EQC policy

I was emailed this post via the tipline, I know who sent it but they have requested their details withheld but they are someone in the industry that knows the ins and outs of housing policy.

Labour on the Earthquake Commission – via the tipline

Struggling homeowners – those middle income families who are walking a tightrope in order to manage household expenses – are on notice thanks to Labour’s policy for the Earthquake Commission (EQC).  The policy announced by Labour’s Clayton Cosgrove will mean significantly higher rate bills, particularly for those residential property owners in the outer suburban neighbourhoods of Auckland and Wellington who are already feeling the financial squeeze from the compounding cost of local government.

Labour’s policy is unequivocal:  universal insurance paid through local government rates, increasing EQC coverage (which means even higher rate bills to cover more generous insurance pay-outs), and the apportionment of liability based on the rateable value of property.

Let’s put things in perspective.  EQC was established in 1945 to provide earthquake and war damage cover for the purchasers of fire insurance.  The scheme was later amended to include other natural disasters, but excluded war damage.  New Zealand’s insurance policy holders have been paying premiums since Peter Fraser first conceived of the scheme, thus allowing for a contingency fund to accrue for the day it was needed.

Those days have arrived.  And the National Disaster Fund, the ultimate expression of political consensus has worked well.  Yes, EQC’s reserves have been depleted.  But New Zealand has performed remarkably well under unprecedented circumstances.  Canterbury is moving from a relief to a recovery phase, which is the forerunner to an enormous rebuild that will generate construction and jobs in New Zealand’s second largest city for generations to come.

It would be unfair to accuse the National Government of imprudent stewardship during this harrowing past 12 months.  EQC needs a boost, which is precisely the reason why Finance Minister Bill English announced in October that levies would rise.  Insured homeowners currently pay 5c per $100 of insurance cover, up to a maximum of $69 a year (including GST), as part of their insurance premiums. Under the proposed changes, homeowners will pay 15c per $100 of insurance cover, with an annual cap of $207 (including GST).

Which brings us back to Labour’s announcement.  Moving from an insurance scheme to a universal rating scheme proportionate to rateable values poses more questions than answers:

  1. If Labour desires a universal rating scheme, will this therefore require non-residential property owners (the people who own the factories, the workshops, the office blocks and the retail shops that provide the jobs for hundreds of thousands of New Zealand workers) to pay higher rates in order to fund a scheme that only benefits residential property owners?
  2. If non-residential property owners are be to liable for a National Disaster Fund, will those same ratepayers (who already pay a disproportionate amount of local government rates) benefit from that Fund?  If not, why not?
  3. What is the rating system that Labour expects to apply?  Historically smaller rural councils rate on land.  Larger urban councils rate on capital.  Why has Labour not clarified its rating methodology?  Who are the ratepayers that will be hit hardest?  Why won’t Phil Goff tell us who will pay the most?

Rating property generates many moral dilemmas.  The widow who owns a family home in Bucklands Beach or the young family struggling to pay the mortgage for the 4-bedroom home in Whitby is assumed to have asset wealth because of the rateable value of their respective property.  Yet the value of the family home does not mean the widow is any better off, or that the young family is flush with disposable cash in order to afford year-on-year rate increases.

Labour’s policy is a recipe for shifting the burden of cost to those ratepayers in New Zealand who already pay the most, and who are poorly placed to deal with the compounding cost of local government.  Auckland Mayor Len Brown’s proposed Long Term Plan budget includes rate increases of up to 50 per cent for hardworking business owners in Pukekohe.  Why should those hardworking New Zealanders – people who have never benefitted from the National Insurance Fund in their lives – now be singled out to pay Labour’s new wealth tax?

Labour has made a calculated decision to impress the voters in New Brighton and Shirley with a funding scheme that will ultimately hit every New Zealand ratepayer in the pocket.  And Labour intends to shift the burden of responsibility to every city and provincial mayor in New Zealand to act as the tax collector.  There is nothing courageous about that.

In 1945 Peter Fraser displayed a sense of vision.  New Zealand today is better off for his foresight.  Phil Goff’s craven calculation is mean-spirited and steeped in envy by comparison.

Funny campaign graffiti

You have to laugh, but when you de-brand like Clayton Cosgrove has and dream up your own slogan’s someone is going to take the piss:

575 bad prisoners Labour would let roam free

There are 575 prisoners currently on the three strikes ladder:

One prisoner only – a recidivist robber – has earned the infamy of having a second “strike” to his name since the introduction of the three-strikes system for sexual or violent offences.

But 574 others have earned a first strike.

The Sentencing and Parole Reform Act, which established the system of harsher sentences for repeat offenders, came into effect last June.

…The law applies to one of 40 violent or sexual offences. An offender receives a normal sentence and a warning for strike one, a sentence without parole for strike two, and the maximum sentence for the offence, without parole, for strike three.

Labour’s “catch and release”  law and order policy would see these 575 criminals walking free as they intend to abolish 3 strikes.

The system is potentially a hot issue for the election, as Labour’s law and order spokesman Clayton Cosgrove has said the law would likely be repealed if Labour won power.

“It would take something seismic to convince me that three strikes should be retained,” Mr Cosgrove said last week, though he did not say what would happen to those who already had strikes to their name.