Colin Craig

New Rule: Only report Winston’s utterings that aren’t bluster

John Armstrong opines:

As captivating and entertaining as such a contest would have been, Winston Peters is unlikely to throw himself feline-like into the pigeon loft and stand in Murray McCully’s East Coast Bays seat.

The idea of putting himself up as the New Zealand First candidate initially seemed like a very cunning plan to disrupt the political footsie being played by Colin Craig’s Conservatives and the National Party in order for the former to get a toehold in Parliament and the latter to remain in power.

But the warning bells ought to have been ringing in the New Zealand First camp after Christine Rankin, the Conservative Party’s chief executive, urged Peters to “bring it on”.

That was a call to arms. While not ruling out standing, Peters has wisely left any decisions until closer to nomination day.

When does Winston not do bluster, bluffing and intimidation?  It is actually safer to bet that he won’t do what he says, because he has a loooong history of… not doing what he says.

No wonder Rankin is all excited at the prospect of a bit of limelight here.  After all, before Winston put the spotlight her way, she’s not featured anywhere.   Read more »

Cartoon of the Day

Credit:  SonovaMin

Credit: SonovaMin

Will John Key Invoke the “No Dickheads” Rule?

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Colin Craig needs a massive hand out from National to get into Parliament.

He won’t make 5% as he is too loopy, so he needs John Key to tank Murray McCully in East Coast Bays to let him into parliament and let others coat-tail with him.

The problem for Colin is this requires John Key to actually think he is a credible, competent candidate, and not a dickhead.  Read more »

Why BCIR is a dumb idea

Andrew Geddis can’t type my name, but I can not only type his and use it in a post but also link to his very good explanation of the ill-conceived idiocy of the cult of Colin Craig regarding binding citizen initiated referenda.

Colin Craig has just one thing he wants from National in any post-election deal. Unfortunately, it’s something that National isn’t able to give him.

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the Conservative Party’s announcement of their “bottom line” policy demand before supporting National post-election strikes me as a major disincentive to National ushering them into the House. As the NZ Herald reports Craig:

“The thing that we want, that will be required if a party wants our support, is that they are going to need to agree to a change whereby that the people of this country have the right on those rare occasions … to tell the government where to go and what to do.”

He later told reporters it may not be enough for National to step aside and give him an uncontested race in the East Coast Bays seat, where he is a candidate.

“We’d want to see referendum get across the line, that’s the one thing that matters for us.”

Conservatives would not go into coalition or enter a confidence and supply agreement unless this condition was met.

Mr Craig said: “We’re not going to be unconstructive, but in terms of getting our full support, that is our bottom line. That is what we want to achieve.”

Let’s pay Craig and his party the courtesy of accepting that they really, really mean what they say on this matter. Unless National give them this policy outcome, they won’t give any guarantee of support for it in office. The problem they face is that there is no way that National on its own (or even in conjunction with the Conservatives) can deliver what they are demanding.

Why can’t BCIR be delivered as the Cult of Colin Craig demands?

there is no doubting that adopting such a measure would represent a fundamental change to the entire constitutional order of New Zealand. And fundamental constitutional changes shouldn’t be made by bare-majority governments on a straight party line vote. It’s constitutionally improper to even suggest that this happen – it would be like the Maori Party saying that their price for supporting a Government would be for that Government to legislate via a bare parliamentary majority to make the Treaty of Waitangi a “higher law” constitutional document that could be used to strike down other laws. I don’t care whether you think that would be a good outcome; it would be a bad way to bring it about.

Now, maybe Craig doesn’t mean that he wants National (with his Party’s help) to bring in binding referendums directly. Maybe he wants the issue itself to be put to a referendum, so that the people of New Zealand can decide for themselves whether or not to make the change. If that is what he means, then he really should say so. Because what he’s calling for at the moment – a fundamental constitutional change carried out by a bare majority in Parliament – is improper, and I just don’t think National should for one minute think about agreeing to do it.

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It’s called a cheque Colin, and stuff all people use them these days

This is a quote from Colin Craig:

“I couldn’t even buy stationary at the shop this morning, without giving the man behind the counter a signed autograph.”

A signed autograph? Really? You autographed an autograph? Was it your dad?

The man is a complete muppet.

Stupidly he is also going toe to toe with Winston Peters, who is loving the attention and promising crazy policies like BCIR.

If National wants Conservative Party support it will have to make referendums binding, says the party’s leader Colin Craig.

He’s used his keynote speech at the party’s annual conference this weekend to highlight the party’s policy as a “bottom line” for any coalition negotiations.

Speaking to about 120 of the party’s rank and file, Craig said National was running a “nanny state”, that had grown “too big and too proud”.

“It’s time the government was smaller, it’s time the government was more efficient and it’s time the government was beholden to the people who voted them in.   Read more »

Could convergence become an issue

Labour continues to be mired in the 20s, the Greens are slowly climbing towards the 20s…hoovering up the disaffected hard left of Labour as The Cunliffe continues to disappoint.

Could convergence become an issue, where the Greens supplant Labour as the largest opposition party.

Matthew Hooton discussed that in his column at the NBR:

Don’t rule out convergence.

Labour’s disastrous decision to replace David Shearer with David Cunliffe and spend nearly a year swinging to the far left has inevitably crashed its poll numbers.

The recent ploy to swing back to the centreappears to have come too late. The days are long gone when Mr Shearer had Labour polling around the mid-30s and, with the Greens in the low teens, well on track to become prime minister. In both the major polls released this week, Roy Morgan and Fairfax-Ipsos, Mr Cunliffe’s Labour was languishing under 25%.

Both polls were taken mainly after Mr Cunliffe’s apology for being a man, but also after his major education announcements. Despite Labour strategists privately claiming their internal polling responded favourably, the public polls suggest that the promises of cheap laptops and slightly smaller classes have failed to capture the imagination of middle-class parents.

Worse for Labour, while there may be good evidence the polls tend to overestimate National’s support by around 5% at the expense of smaller parties, the trend line for Labour in at least the last two elections has almost exactly predicted its actual party vote.

In 2011, Phil Goff led Labour to its worst result since 1925. If Mr Cunliffe’s tilt to the centre continues to fail, he risks taking New Zealand’s oldest political party below the 24% it won in the first two elections following the World War I.

Poll numbers also have an element of self-fulfilling prophecy. People don’t like voting for losers. As the election nears, Labour risks losing a crucial few further points to the Greens, Internet-Mana and NZ First.

Bill English currently wears the electoral dunce cap in the New Zealand parliament, having led National to its 21% debacle in 2002. The finance minister may dare to hope he might finally get to pass it on to Mr Cunliffe after September 20.

For all this, the risk of a change of government remains high.   Read more »

Fairfax/Ipsos poll hammers the nails into Cunliffe’s coffin

If you thought the Roy Morgan poll was bad the Fairfax poll basically confirms that neither is rogue with similar numbers to each other.

National appears to be tightening its grip on the election, with our latest poll cementing its massive lead.

Today’s stuff.co.nz/Ipsos Political poll has National on 54.8 per cent support – a staggering 30-point lead over Labour, but down 1.7 points from our last poll.

John Key is also preferred prime minister among most voters, at 53.7 per cent support to David Cunliffe’s 12.8.

Click here for full graphics.

The only glimmer of good news for Labour is that it appears to have reversed the slide in our previous poll and has risen 1.7 points, to 24.9 per cent.

But pollster Matt Benson said undecided voters were shaping up as an important factor and their numbers had been volatile in the previous three polls.

Today’s poll, which follows Labour’s recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.

But 15.3 per cent of voters still don’t know who they will vote for.

That will bring little cheer to Labour, however, as it prepares for its election campaign launch, now just weeks away.

Read more »

Coming to a theatre to you…

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Via Twitter

Public say “no” to Craig’s Cuppa

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Even if John Key would like to accommodate the Conservative Party purely for pragmatic cold hearted Machiavellian reasons, it looks like the electorate will punish him for it.

I believe the Colmar Brunton poll is out tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see how the Conservative Party is polling.  I mean, if they can’t bring enough MPs in to offset any losses that National may have for being punished over a dirty deal, it is automatically a backward step or at best a zero sum game.

Whichever way this Conservative Party situation is spun, it isn’t looking like Colin Craig’s heading to parliament any time soon.

“What did John Key say about Colin Craig?” contest [UPDATED]

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Hmm, what did John Key say?

Your guesses in comments (remember moderation rules!).  Winner gets a virtual Choc Fish with attached bragging rights.

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