Colmar Brunton

OneNews/Colmar Brunton did a little side poll on Hekia Parata. They asked about whether or not she should have kept her job. This poll will create pressure and lord knows Hekia doesn’t perform well under pressure…she will probably sack another staff member as she seeks to blame everyone but herself, the turnover in her office is a shocker.

A majority of voters think Education Minister Hekia Parata’s poor performance should have seen her dumped from the Cabinet last month, according to a TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll.

Ms Parata will tomorrow announce the Government’s final decisions over the future of 31 Christchurch schools, with the prospect of a number of closures fuelling disapproval of her handling of the education portfolio.  Read more »

I have written an article on what the latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll means for John Key and for David Shearer over at Truth.

One News/Colmar Brunton poll, February 2013

David Shearer had every reason to believe that he had finally turned the corner. He had seen off the cowardly non-challenge of David Cunliffe immediately after the troubles at Labour’s annual conference. He had cruised off of the back of stuff ups by John Key’s government, and then he had a final vote in February’s caucus meeting where he was confirmed as leader, even though 10 MPs abstained.

John Key would have been nervous. last year was a nightmare. Lazy and incompetent ministers exposed the government to embarrassment  but none more so than Hekia Parata.  Read more »

I guess the Roy Morgan orgasmic euphoria just ended for the left.

The latest TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll has delivered bad news to Labour. Colin Craig may as well pack up too, scoring a great big fat doughnut.

I knew there was a poll coming because the Winston and Prosser show kicked off last week. It hasn’t helped them though, and they may have been fed a bum steer on the poll dates.

The first ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll of the year shows a boost for the Government.

National has bounced up five points in the poll to 49%, its highest approval rating in almost a year.  Read more »

ᔥ TVNZ

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll is out, National has slipped and Labour has picked up some votes along with the Greens. It appears that labour still picks up National votes and the Greens are stealing Labour votes on the hard left.

National’s popularity with voters has slipped below 50% for the first time in two years, according to the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

The poll, taken the week after the Budget, has National’s support down four points from November last year to 47%.

Labour and its fledgling leader David Shearer have picked up momentum in the poll, rising from 29% support to 33%.

Two polls tonight, similar results.

One News Colmar Brunton Poll:

• National 50.0% (-3.0%)
• Labour 28.0% (+2.0%)
• Green 10.0% (-3.0%)
• ACT 1.7% (+0.1%)
• Maori 2.0% (+0.4%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
• Mana 1.0% (-0.3%)
• NZ First 4.2% (+2.0%)
• Conservative 2.4% (+1.0%)

3News Reid Research Poll:

• National 50.8% (+0.8)
• Labour 26.0% (-1.4%)
• Green 13.4% (+0.4%)
• ACT 1.0%
• Maori 1.5%
• United Future 0.0%
• Mana 1.1%
• NZ First 3.1%
• Conservative 1.8%

3News records Labour’s lowest ever result since the 1990′s. Winston Peters looks down and out. On both of these polls, plus the Fairfax poll yesterday, National can govern alone but only just.

This makes it very important that National voter in Epsom votes for John Banks with their electorate vote. ACT are polling high enought to bring at elast another MP in and therefore shore up the centre right. They shouldn;t fall for the wishes of Labour and the Greens who are voting for Paul Goldsmith in order to kill of National’s only real coalition partner.

Voting for Paul Goldsmith in Epsom is voting for a Phil Goff government, with Winston Peters, Hone Harawira and the Greens all adding their billions of spending onto Labour debt laden election promises.

National’s voters need to turn out and party vote National. The election is close and this too makes a mockery of MMP where NZ most popular Prime Minister since records began and a party that commands around 50% of the vote can be tipped from power by a bunch of also rans who barely command 5% or in the case of the Greens under 15% and Labour under a quarter of votes.

You could well end up with a government that is run by someone with just barely 25% of the vote. This is why MMP must be dumped. Vote for Change in the referendum, dump MMP and vote for SM. Let’s stop the ridiculous situation where the Winston peters and Hone harawiras of this world command so much more power than they really deserve.

Labour rushed out special advertising to capitalise on the illegal recording of John Key and John Banks. They erroneously thought would give them a poll bump.

Turns out the strategic genius running Labour’s campaign was right again…a bump down the ladder to their lowest ever One News C0lmar Brunton poll in 10 years.

Support for Labour has dipped to a ten year low with the Green Party reaping the benefit, according to the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

National’s level of support seems to be barely damaged by the ongoing “tea pot tape” controversy this week.

Full results are:

National: down 1 point to 53%
Labour: down another 2 points to 26%
Greens: up 4 points to 13%
New Zealand First: down 0.7 points to 2.2%,
Act: up 0.1 points to 1.6%
Maori Party: 1.6%
Conservative party: 1.4%
Mana: 1.3%
United Future: 0.3%

Nine days out from the election dropping to your lowest ever poll in ten years doesn’t look like a good place to be. Not looking good for their strategy of denigrating John Key either:

John Key’s support as the preferred Prime Minister has not been significantly damaged by the “tea pot tape” saga either.
He has dropped back two points but still has 53% support compared with 13% for Phil Goff.

National won’t be losing any sleep.

Labour are on the slide still. TVNZ has released their latest One News Colmar Brunton poll and the news isn’t good for Labour:

This is the second poll that shows Labour well under 30%. They will be consulting their playbook tonight for a new series of dirty tricks, it is all they have left in the kit bag.

Labour seem to be playing the Limbo game now, like a bunch of muppets. How low can they go?

TVNZ have released their latest poll and it is grim reading for Labour. Phil Goff told us last week that his Super policy was a “game changer”, he told us when he released his capital gains tax that the policy was going to be a “game changer” too.

Well it looks like Phil Goff isn’t even in this game.

Labour has made the running in this election campaign.

Its policies of introducing a capital gain tax, compulsory KiwiSaver and raising the retirement age have been both brave and considered and they amount to a genuine alternative economic policy.

That has counted for precisely nothing.

That is the message from the One News/Colmar Brunton poll out tonight.

Labour made a strategically smart decision to focus their campaign on serious policy rather than have Phil Goff compete with John Key in a popularity contest.

That did not mean an absence of leadership.

Goff showed he could foot it with Key in the first leaders’ debate on TV One.

But again, nothing.

Probably because instead of doing what they promises and focussing on policy they instead went personal and they went nasty.

The numbers from TVNZ tell the picture for Labour and their strategy:

National: 56% with no change from the previous poll.
Labour : 30% up 1%
Greens: 9% unchanged
New Zealand:  2.2%
Maori Party: 1.3%
Act: 0.9%
Mana Party: 0.3%
United Future: 0.1%.

Contrary to Trevor Mallard’s desperate email where he said:

The key point for us is not to be dragged down into the detail on the CGT. The pub­lic don’t care and we get boring.

It turns out that people do care about detail on their capital gains tax and it also turns out that they do think Labour are boring.

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll delivers disaster to Labour with them hitting a 10 year low.

A shock result in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll shows support for Labour plummeting.

Support for the opposition has plunged to a 10-year low, with Labour polling just 27%.

National is up to 53% while Labour sheds seven points to 27%. The Greens take some of that vote, bouncing up to 10%, while Act and the Maori Party are both sitting around 3%.

New Zealand First (2.4%) would need to double its support to make it back, and the Mana Party (0.5%) and United Future (0.3%) are barely registering.

National would have 66 seats in Parliament on these numbers and with four each from the Maori Party and Act they would have a massive majority.

Labour (33 seats) doesn’t get close even after adding in the Greens (12) and the Mana Party (1).

Labour is in serious trouble. Their campaigns and their plana re as crippled as their campaign manager.

The time has come to roll Goff. They have nothing to lose, they are at a ten year low. Making my image of the weekend somewhat prophetic.

Out of time and out of luck the top tier have to go to save Labour. After their performance of the past couple of days they couldn’t go much wrong with the two Davids. David Cunliffe and David parker have performed well and surely now the caucus will have the gumption to finally end the ignominy of Phil Goff’s leadership.

Trevor Mallard can’t spin his way out of this either. He proclaimed in his leaked email that this poll was taken before voters knew the details of the capital gains tax. In the same email just two paragraphs away he also implored Labour to not speak of such trvialities like details, the electorate aren’t interested and they would look boring.

Well from these poll results it certainly looks like people do find Labour. I commented on Citizen A and on The Nation this morning that it really doesn’t matter how good or bad Labour’s policy is, the simple fact is that people simply aren’t listening to anything they have to say.

More than 70% of the population have switched off and 93% don’t care whether Phil Goff draws breath or not. Russel Norman is now within striking distance of becoming the de facto Leader of the Opposition.

There were two mainstream polls tonight both with similar results. The 3News/Reid Research poll looks to have recovered from their rogue last time out so Labour can’t take much heart from their rise in that poll. It is nothing more of a correction to normal levels.

National down 4.5% to 53%
Labour up 5.7% to 32.8%
Greens down 1.2% to 6.5%
Winston First down 0.4% to 2.4%
ACT up 0.5% to 2.2%
Maori down 0.9% to 1.6%
Mana  steady at 0.5%

One News/Colmar Brunton have a similar result:

National down slightly to 52%
Labour no change 34%
Greens no change on 6%
Winston First down to 1.6%
ACT up to 2.5%
Maori steady at 1.4%
Mana steady at 0.9%

It is clear from these polls that Don Brash has much to do to save ACT and that Labour has failed to make a dent at all after the budget. Matt McCarten will be happy with these polls vindicating his call for Goff to be sacked.

If Labour couldn’t make a dent after that budget they never will. No wonder the doors were closed in his face in McGehan Close.

Goff primed each resident he spoke to with a patsy question about rising costs. But when he asked one elderly man what he thought about the rising cost of food, the pensioner complained tobacco prices were soaring out of reach. His $480 pension per fortnight could not keep up with the rising cost of smoking.

Goff moved to the next home.

Some residents bluntly refused to face the swarm of Labour types and television crews. When the cameras disappeared, they emerged to say they actually quite liked their street – despite its reputation – and were not keen on the attention.

Honestly it couldn’t get much worse than doorstepping a poor person and all they do is complain about the price of smokes.