Colmar Brunton

That’s Labour in the 20′s on all polls now [ UPDATED ]

Word from deep inside Labour is that Grant Robertson has the numbers to roll David Cunliffe, but they’re keeping him out front to take all the bullets in a Weekend at Bernies kind of election slapstick.


Colmar Brunton poll tonight…

I’ll pop a post up as soon as we have the results.

Will National’s number start with a 5, and Labour’s with 2?

This was last week the previous one



Whinging and whining ain’t cutting it with the public

Chris Trotter is the bellwether of the left…he is prepared to say things that the more tribal members of the commentariat aren’t prepared to say.

Twice in as many days he has quietly pointed out the failure of the Cunliffe experiment. He writes at The Daily Blog:

THE LATEST ROY MORGAN POLL has Labour on 28.5 percent (down 3.5 percent) and the Greens on 11.5 percent (down 1.5 percent). At 40 percent, the combined vote of the two main centre-left parties has fallen 5 percentage points since Roy Morgan’s previous survey in late March. Roy Morgan has long been the Left’s favourite polling agency: a source of good news when the Colmar-Brunton, Reid Research and Ipsos agencies could offer nothing but ill-tidings. That “our poll” has begun to deliver ill-tidings of its own is bad news indeed.

Chief among the causes of this worrying decline must surely be the political antagonisms currently dividing Labour and the Greens. David Cunliffe’s decision to spurn the Green Party’s offer of an explicit pre-election coalition agreement, itself a reaction to internal Labour Party polling data, has clearly not been enthusiastically received by centre-left voters.

The other cause of Labour’s 3.5 percent decline in popular support can only be the its leader’s ham-fisted response to the visit of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge. Justified or not, the public perceived Cunliffe to be whingeing about the amount of face-time he had been allocated with the Royal Couple. New Zealanders are notoriously unsympathetic to “whingers” and they undoubtedly mentally piled Cunliffe’s comments upon all the other ill-considered statements he has made since January.

In both cases the quality most conspicuously lacking in the Leader of the Opposition’s decisions was courage. Regardless of whether Russel Norman’s motives in offering to campaign for a “Labour/Greens Government” were well-intentioned or darkly Machiavellian, it is now pretty clear that the smart move would have been for Labour to seize the offer with both hands.

Read more »

Two bad polls for Labour, Cunliffe has zero traction


One News and 3 News both had polls tonight. Both polls show that David Cunliffe is failing as Labour leader and is now plumbing the depths that Bill English charted when he was leader of National.

English debuted as leader around 14% and slowly slid into insignificance. David Cunliffe is the same. He must now be under real pressure both from his caucus and his members. It is telling that like his caucus, just one third of Labour voters prefer him as PM. In the OneNews/Colmar Brunton he is on 8% and in the 3News/Reid Research he is on 9%, well below the worst results David Shearer ever produced.

Labour’s smear campaign against Judith Collins and Hekia Parata have failed demonstrably along with their stupid crony capitalism campaign.They should give it up, it hasn’t worked at all.

As for their vaunted forestry policy, that has gone down with voters like a cup of cold sick. Instead of launching a policy for a few elite forest owners they should have been talking policy idea that resonate with middle NZ but they haven’t, instead talking over their heads.

All the game changers they’ve announced have indeed changed the game…in favour of John Key and the National party.  Read more »

Corin Dann swallowing dead rats

There is a time sometimes when commentators and journalists have to swallow dead rats.

Corin Dann is a Labour fan…he shows it with his work, but after last nights poll he has had to swallow a dead rat and write an opinion piece he would have hated writing.

For the Labour and the Greens, the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll is a massive wake up call.

Over the summer the general feeling was that the centre left and right blocks were pretty much neck and neck going into election year, and that the election was anyone’s.

Yet in just the space of a month National has started to pull away.

The six-point surge in the ONE News Colmar Brunton poll to 51% may well reflect a strong economy and the feel good factor of summer.

However, it also must be acknowledged that Prime Minister John Key has made a strong start to the year.

His popular education policy sending a clear signal to voters that National is capable of fresh ideas and is not a tired government.  Read more »

One News poll signals disaster for left

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll is out and it isn’t pretty reading for the left wing or for Winston Peters.

Cuddling up to Kim Dotcom looks like it is electoral poison with the Greens dropping  5 points and Winston First sinking further.

National: 51% up 6 points
Labour: 34% no change
Greens: 8% down 5 points
NZ First: 3% down 1 point
Conservatives: 1% no change
Maori Party 1 % no change

United Future and Act can expect one seat each and that gives a clear margin to the centre-right.  Read more »

OneNews poll – National still in high 40s, no cut through for Cunliffe

Despite the spin of Labour about a UMR poll showing National in the 30s we now have a second reputable poll showing National is still riding high in the polls after 5 years.

Worse though is that David Cunliffe hasn’t made any gains at all.

The One News/Colmar Brunton poll shows:

National: 45%
Labour: 34%
Greens: 13%
NZ First: 4%
Maori: 1%
Act: 1%
Conservatives: 2%

John Key is still preferred PM by a big margin:

John Key: 43%
David Cunliffe: 12%  Read more »

#Chanban was a circuit breaker…for the Greens

Labour has pinned its hopes for resurrection on two flagship policies. Both policies were touted as a circuit breaker and it looks like Labour was right, they have turned out to be a circuit breaker for the Greens.

This is the danger of sharing a platform to launch a policy like they did with NZ Power or shamelessly stealing a policy like they did with the ban on foreigners.

A political poll has failed to show the boost Labour was hoping for from its plan to prevent foreigners buying homes in New Zealand, although the policy does appear to have arrested the party’s fall.

Labour has held steady at 33 per cent in the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll, after dropping several points in the Herald-DigiPoll, 3News Reid Research, and Roy Morgan polls in the past few weeks. About three-quarters of the 1000 respondents were polled after Labour announced its new housing policy two Sundays ago.  Read more »

One News poll: No good news for Labour, not much more for Shearer

No wonder One News went early with the Preferred PM results. They are the only good news, if a 1% increase can at all be considered good news, for Labour.

Despite a perfect week for Labour and all the fuss over the GCSB bill Labour couldn’t even improve their rankings a single percentage point.

Not so the Greens they surged 5 %

onenews Read more »

59% says Parata should have been sacked, PM got it wrong

OneNews/Colmar Brunton did a little side poll on Hekia Parata. They asked about whether or not she should have kept her job. This poll will create pressure and lord knows Hekia doesn’t perform well under pressure…she will probably sack another staff member as she seeks to blame everyone but herself, the turnover in her office is a shocker.

A majority of voters think Education Minister Hekia Parata’s poor performance should have seen her dumped from the Cabinet last month, according to a TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll.

Ms Parata will tomorrow announce the Government’s final decisions over the future of 31 Christchurch schools, with the prospect of a number of closures fuelling disapproval of her handling of the education portfolio.  Read more »